YANUKOVYCH’S DECISION TO POSTPONE THE SIGNATURE OF THE AGREEMENT WITH THE EU: A POLIHEURISTIC ANALYSIS

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smabelho@gmail.com

Lieutenant-Colonel of the Air Force at Instituto Universitário Militar (Military University Institute, Portugal), in the Area of Strategy Teaching (Portugal). Holder of a Degree in Aeronautical Engineering from the Air Force Academy and of a Master Degree in Management from Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão (Higher Institute of Management and Economics). She has a postgraduate qualification in Peace and War Studies in the New International Relations from Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa.

Resumo

President Yanukovych’s decision to postpone the signing of the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union triggered a strong reaction in Ukrainian society. One of the consequences of the crisis that ensued was the removal of the president himself. What prompted Yanukovych to postpone the signing of the agreement with the European Union? In seeking the answer to this guiding question, poliheuristic theory was used, in the light of which this decision process was analysed in two stages. The first stage identified that the option not to be selected was the signature of the agreement with the EU, and the threats that internally led to this decision were analysed. Yanukovych felt that his survival in power was not at issue and sought to solve Ukraine’s immediate financial problem by highlighting the problems that industrialists in the south-east of the country were experiencing with Russian trade blockades and avoiding essential structural reforms in the country. Although the decision was already identified, we analysed how it maximized the advantages and minimized the disadvantages, which corresponded to the second stage of the analysis. Dismissing the civic and political mobilization of the Ukrainians, believing he could have talks with the European Union and Russia concomitantly and valuing the immediate financing needs, answers the question initially posed, that is, what prompted Yanukovych to postpone the signing of the agreement.

A decisão do Presidente Yanukovich de adiar a assinatura do Acordo de Associação e o Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement com a União Europeia despoletou uma forte reação na sociedade ucraniana. Uma das consequências da crise que assim teve início foi o afastamento do próprio presidente. O que terá conduzido Yanukovich a adiar a assinatura do acordo com a União Europeia? Na procura da resposta a esta questão orientadora, recorreu-se à teoria Poliheurística, à luz da qual se analisou este processo de decisão em duas etapas. Numa primeira em que se identificou que a opção a não selecionar era a assinatura do acordo com a UE, tendo-se analisado as ameaças que internamente conduziram a esta decisão. Yanukovich considerou que a sua sobrevivência no poder não estava em causa e procurou resolver o problema financeiro da Ucrânia no imediato, valorizando os problemas que os industriais do sudeste do país estavam a viver com os bloqueios comerciais russos e evitando as reformas estruturais essenciais no seu país. Embora a decisão já estivesse identificada, analisou-se como esta maximizava as vantagens e minimizava as desvantagens, o que correspondeu à segunda etapa da análise. O ter menosprezado a mobilização cívica e política dos ucranianos, o ter considerado que podia estabelecer conversações com a União Europeia e a Rússia em simultâneo e o ter valorizado as necessidades de financiamento imediatas, responde à questão inicialmente colocada, ou seja, o que levou Yanukovich a adiar a assinatura do acordo.

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Como citar este artigo

Abelho, Susana (2017). “Yanukovych’s decision to postpone the signing of the agreement with the EU: a poliheuristic analysis”. JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 1, May-October 2017. Accessed [online] on date of last access, http://hdl.handle.net/11144/3034

Article received on 3 October, 2016 and accepted for publication on 24 February, 2017

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