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e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL13 N2, TD1
Thematic dossier / Dossiê temático
Perspectives on China's International Presence
Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China
December / Dezembro 2022
VOL13 N2, TD1
Thematic dossier
Perspectives on China's international presence: strategies, processes and challenges
Dossiê temático
Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China: estratégias, processos e desafios
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT22
Editorial – Carmen Amado Mendes – pp. 1-6
ARTICLES / ARTIGOS
Evolução dos processos de agenda-setting na República Popular da China – o caso
ilustrativo das reformas de saúde - Anabela Santiago – pp. 7-18
A diáspora chinesa no Brasil: espalhamento, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de
retorno – Daniel Bicudo Véras – pp. 19-37
Impact of Chinese assertiveness on global order - Bhawna Pokharna – pp. 38-54
The institutional challenges for the European Union in the face of the new Chinese
investment wave - Jorge Tavares da Silva, e Rui Pereira – pp. 55-76
Portuguese strategies towards China during the COVID19 pandemic - Carmen Amado
Mendes, e Hou Xiaoying – pp. 77-96
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VOL13 N2, DT1
Thematic dossier/ Dossiê temático
Perspectives on China’s international presence
Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China
December / Dezembro 2022
1
EDITORIAL
PERSPECTIVES ON CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE:
STRATEGIES, PROCESSES AND CHALLENGES
CARMEN AMADO MENDES
carmen.mendes@fe.uc.pt
President of the Macau Scientific and Cultural Centre. Associate Professor of International
Relations with tenure, accredited at the School of Economics of the University of Coimbra
(Portugal), where she established the course “China and the Portuguese-speaking Countries in
World Trade”. Former head of the International Relations department and coordinator of the
School of Economics International Office at the same university. Holds a Ph.D. degree from the
School of Oriental and African Studies – University of London, a Master degree from the Institute
of Higher European Studies – University of Strasbourg, and a Bachelor degree from the Institute
of Social and Political Sciences – University of Lisbon. She was a Post-doctorate scholar at the
Institute of Political Studies of the Portuguese Catholic University of Lisbon and visiting professor
at the University of Macau, the University of Salamanca and the University of Lyon. She was a
board member of the European Association for Chinese Studies, and the organizer of the 2014
EACS conference in Coimbra; and president of the International Relations Section and member of
the board of the Portuguese Political Science Association. Principal Investigator at the University
of Coimbra on a research project on the role of Macau in China´s relations with the Portuguese
speaking-countries, funded by the Portuguese national funding agency for Science, Research and
Technology; and on a project on South-South Cooperation for the Europe China Research and
Advice Network, supported by the European External Action Service. Auditor of the Portuguese
National Defense Institute. Co-founder of the consulting company ChinaLink, and of the
Observatory for China in Portugal. Author of China and the Macau Negotiations, 1986-
1999 (HKUP) and China’s New Silk Road: An Emerging World Order (Routledge), as well as other
publications available for consultation at: www.uc.pt/feuc/carmen
How to cite this editorial / Como citar este editorial
Mendes, Carmen Amado (2022). Editorial. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations.
VOL13 N2, TD1 - Thematic dossier “Perspectives on China's International Presence:
Strategies, Processes and Challenges” / “Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da
China”, December / Dezembro 2022. Consulted [online] on date of last visit / Consultado [em
linha] em data da última visita, https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT22.ED
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Thematic dossier/ Dossiê temático
Perspectives on China’s international presence / Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China
December / Dezembro 2022, pp. 1-6
Editorial - Carmen Amado Mendes
2
EDITORIAL
CARMEN AMADO MENDES
This thematic issue is the result of collaboration with the Macau Scientific and Cultural
Centre (also known as CCCM). This issue is particularly a product of the CCCM China
Conferences, which are held annually in the spring and in which the authors participated.
The CCCM is a scientific research centre based in Lisbon with the mission of producing,
promoting, and disseminating knowledge about Macau and China in general, acting as a
platform between Portugal and the People's Republic of China, as well as between Europe
and Asia. This journal contains five articles in total. The first two articles look back at
developments in the first decade of the millennium, and provide important analysis that
contributes to our understanding of the events that mark the present-day. The remaining
three articles focus on contemporary political issues, and deal with various aspects of
Chinese domestic and international politics. Each of the papers presents original
research, with independent and novel findings, that will certainly be of use to the readers
of the issue in understanding recent issues that concern China in the twenty-first century.
The first paper, by Anabela Santiago, titled ‘Evolução dos processos de agenda-setting
na República Popular da China – o caso ilustrativo das reformas de saúde’, provides a
substantial analysis of the way in which health policy agenda-setting in China developed,
principally during the first decade of the 21st century. The research is particularly timely
since it provides its readers a substantial explanation of agenda-setting – from a health
perspective – in the PRC from when the SARS crisis first began up to around 2013, and
consequently allows a better understanding of the direction in which health policy was
moving and would have continued moving, if it had not been for the outbreak of the
Covid-19 pandemic.
The second paper, by Daniel Bicudo Véras, which is titled ‘’A diáspora chinesa no Brasil:
dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de retorno’’, deals with an aspect of
the complex development of Sino-Brazilian relations approximately fifteen years ago. It
is a well-researched study of what remains a timely and important topic, namely the
evolution of the place held by Chinese in the on-going construction of the Brazilian
identity. Taking as a starting point the push-pull hypothesis found in diaspora research,
the author focuses on the emergence of Sino-Brazilians, reminding the reader that at
least three hundred thousand Chinese are present in Brazil. While the research was
commenced in 2003, the author followed up with field studies and interviews in 2006,
and completed the study in 2008. The study can be viewed as a contribution to the
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3
diaspora research of Stuart Hall and Adam McKeown, and a very useful addition to the
socio-economic analysis employing the Marxian concept the ‘industrial reserve army’,
which accounts for the presence of large population contingents circulating around the
world.
The third paper, ’Impact of Chinese Assertiveness on Global order’, by Bhawna Pokharna,
introduces the reader to the topic of the rise of China in the twenty-first century and the
extent to which this ascent has changed geo-strategic politics, and the course of global
order. The author suggests that as China has enhanced its assertiveness in the global
arena, it has been increasingly viewed as a threat to the existing liberal international
order, and focuses on recent developments, especially during the pandemic and
immediate post-pandemic years. While China is said to be on the way to becoming a
superpower with its substantial economic growth, military modernization, and a strong
political system, the author identifies what is held to be the irresponsible, impetuous and
rash behaviour of China during Covid 19 global pandemic as raising questions about the
future of liberal world order. The author suggests that since Xi Jinping became President,
the PRC has embarked on the road to superpower status, posited on his philosophy of
the China Dream. The Belt and Road Initiative has unfolded Chinese global ambitions and
extended its outreach tremendously, with China set to abandon the existing liberal
international order, that is dominated by the western powers, and take steps to become
a major player in the international arena.
The fourth paper, ‘The institutional challenges for the European Union in the face of the
new Chinese investment wave’, co-authored by Jorge Tavares Silva and Rui Pereira,
provides an analysis of the consequences of Chinese investment in Europe, particularly
how Chinese investments may challenge European unity, both regarding the institutional
structure of the EU, but also in the formulation of foreign policy towards China. After an
analysis of the past history of EU-China relations, taking up great moments in EU-China
cooperation as well as examples of disagreements and antagonisms, the paper focuses
on trade and economic relations, and provides the principal bilateral statistics for these
fields of interaction. The article concludes by discussing the consequences of Chinese
trade and investment in Europe, including the pressure that is exerted on formal
arrangements and administrative European routines.
The concluding paper in the issue, written by myself and Hou Xiaoying, is titled
‘Portuguese Strategies towards China during the Covid19 Pandemic’ uses the Theory of
Asymmetrical Negotiations (TAN), advanced by Habeeb in 1988, to analyse how three
factors - commitment, alternatives, and control – can be said to have influenced
Portugal’s strategies towards China during the Pandemic. The paper tests the
effectiveness of TAN in explaining the strategy choices made by small states towards
large states, and thereby enriches our understanding of Portugal’s ongoing diplomacy,
and the diplomatic possibilities available to small states. Its hypothesis is that when a
small state has a high level of commitment, unfavourable alternatives, and limited control
over a single issue in its relations with a large state, it finds itself at a disadvantage in
terms of the ‘balance of power’, and resorts to soft negotiation strategies. Conversely,
when a small state has a degree of advantage, it tends to adopt hard negotiation
strategies. The article tests this supposition, using the case of Portugal as an example,
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and ultimately concludes that small states generally adopt mixed strategies in their
international relations since the ‘balance of power’ remains always in flux.
Note: The first two articles were originally written in Portuguese, the other three in
English.
CARMEN AMADO MENDES
carmen.mendes@fe.uc.pt
Presidente do Centro Científico e Cultural de Macau e Professora Associada, com Agregação, do
Núcleo de Relações Internacionais da Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra
(Portugal), onde coordenou o Gabinete de Relações Internacionais. É Doutora em estudos
políticos pela School of Oriental and African Studies – Universidade de Londres, Mestre
pelo Institut des Hautes Études Européennes – Universidade de Estrasburgo e Licenciada pelo
Instituto de Ciências Sociais e Políticas – Universidade de Lisboa; com um Pós-Doutoramento no
Instituto de Estudos Políticos da Universidade Católica Portuguesa. Foi professora visitante da
Universidade de Macau e, em Lisboa, Auditora do Instituto de Defesa Nacional, e Presidente da
Secção de Relações Internacionais e vogal da direção da Associação Portuguesa de Ciência
Política. Co-fundadora do Observatório da China em Portugal e da empresa ChinaLink
Consultores Lda. Autora do livro As Negociações de Macau e coordenadora de China’s New Silk
Road: An Emerging World Order, bem como de outras publicações sobre política externa chinesa.
Esta revista temática foi organizada pelo Centro Científico e Cultural de Macau (CCCM),
na sequência da participação dos autores nas Conferências sobre a China, que decorrem
anualmente na primavera no CCCM. O CCCM é um centro de investigação científica
sediado em Lisboa com a missão produzir, promover e divulgar conhecimento sobre
Macau e a China em geral, atuando como plataforma entre Portugal e a República Popular
da China, assim como entre a Europa e a Ásia.
Os primeiros dois artigos desta revista fazem uma retrospetiva dos desenvolvimentos na
primeira década do milénio, contribuindo para o entendimento de acontecimentos que
marcam os dias de hoje. Os dois restantes artigos analisam questões políticas
contemporâneas, abordando vários aspetos da política doméstica e internacional chinesa.
Os autores apresentam investigação original e inovadora, certamente útil ao leitor para
a compreensão da China no século XXI.
O primeiro artigo, “Evolução dos processos de agenda-setting na República Popular da
China - o caso ilustrativo das reformas de saúde”, de Anabela Santiago, aborda a forma
como a definição da agenda política de saúde na China se desenvolveu, principalmente
durante a primeira década do século XXI. A investigação é particularmente oportuna uma
vez que oferece uma explicação substancial da definição da agenda política – de uma
perspetiva da saúde - na RPC desde que a crise da SARS começou até cerca de 2013.
Consequentemente, ajuda a compreender a direção da evolução da política de saúde até
ao surto da pandemia de Covid-19.
O segundo artigo, "A diáspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem
e promessa de retorno", de Daniel Bicudo Véras, aborda um aspeto do complexo
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5
desenvolvimento das relações sino-brasileiras nos últimos quinze anos, nomeadamente
a evolução do lugar ocupado pelos chineses na construção em curso da identidade
brasileira. Tomando como ponto de partida a hipótese push–pull encontrada na
investigação da diáspora, o autor centra-se na emergência de sino-brasileiros, lembrando
o leitor que o Brasil tem pelo menos trezentos mil chineses. A investigação, iniciada em
2003, incluiu trabalho de campo e entrevistas em 2006, e foi concluída em 2008. O
estudo deste tema oportuno e importante pode ser visto como uma contribuição para a
investigação da diáspora de Stuart Hall e Adam McKeown, e um acréscimo muito útil à
análise socioeconómica que emprega o conceito marxista de "exército de reserva
industrial", que explica a presença de grandes contingentes populacionais que circulam
por todo o mundo.
O terceiro artigo, "Impact of Chinese Assertiveness on Global Order", de Bhawna
Pokharna, apresenta o leitor ao tema da ascensão da China no século XXI e a medida
em que esta ascensão mudou a política geoestratégica, e também o curso da ordem
global. O artigo sugere que, à medida que a China tem aumentado a sua assertividade
na arena global, tem sido cada vez mais vista como uma ameaça à ordem internacional
liberal existente, focando-se nos desenvolvimentos recentes, especialmente durante os
anos da pandemia e da pós-pandemia imediata. Embora se diga que a China está a
caminho de se tornar uma superpotência com o seu crescimento económico substancial,
modernização militar e um sistema político forte, a autora identifica o que foi considerado
um comportamento irresponsável, impetuoso e precipitado por parte da China durante a
pandemia global do Covid 19, nomeadamente o levantar de questões sobre o futuro da
ordem mundial liberal. A autora considera que, desde que Xi Jinping se tornou Presidente,
a RPC enveredou pelo caminho para o estatuto de superpotência, apoiada na sua filosofia
do Sonho da China. A Iniciativa Faixa e Rota é uma demonstração das ambições globais
chinesas de alcance muito abrangente, permitindo à China abandonar a ordem
internacional liberal existente, dominada pelas potências ocidentais, e caminhar no
sentido de se assumir como um grande ator na cena internacional.
O quarto artigo, “The institutional challenges for the European Union in the face of the
new Chinese investment wave ", de coautoria de Jorge Tavares Silva e Rui Pereira,
aborda as consequências do investimento chinês na Europa, especialmente a forma dos
investimentos chineses desafiarem a unidade europeia, tanto no que diz respeito à
estrutura institucional da UE, como também na formulação da política externa em relação
à China. Após uma análise da história das relações UE-China, incluindo grandes
momentos na cooperação bilateral e exemplos de desacordos e antagonismos, o artigo
centra-se nas relações comerciais e económicas, disponibilizando as principais
estatísticas bilaterais para estes campos de interação. A conclusão apresenta as
consequências do comércio e investimento chineses na Europa, incluindo a pressão que
exercida sobre acordos formais e rotinas administrativas europeias.
O artigo final deste número, que escrevi em conjunto com Hou Xiaoying, intitula-se
"Portuguese Strategies towards China during the Covid19 Pandemic". A Teoria das
Negociações Assimétricas (TNA), avançada por Habeeb em 1988, serve de base à análise
de como três fatores - compromisso, alternativas e controlo - influenciaram as
estratégias de Portugal em relação à China durante a pandemia. O documento testa a
eficácia da TNA na explicação das escolhas estratégicas feitas por pequenos estados em
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relação a grandes estados, contribuindo para a compreensão da atual diplomacia
portuguesa e das opções diplomáticas à disposição dos pequenos estados. Quando um
pequeno estado tem um alto nível de compromisso, alternativas desfavoráveis e um
controlo limitado sobre uma única questão nas suas relações com um grande estado,
encontra-se em desvantagem em termos do "equilíbrio de poder", e recorre a estratégias
de negociação suaves. Pelo contrário, quando um pequeno estado se encontra em
situação de vantagem, tende a adotar estratégias de negociação duras. O artigo testa
esta hipótese, utilizando o caso de Portugal como exemplo, e acaba por concluir que os
pequenos estados geralmente adotam estratégias mistas nas suas relações externas,
uma vez que o “equilíbrio de poder” permanece sempre em fluxo.
Apenas uma nota final para referir que os dois primeiros artigos foram originalmente
escritos em português, e os últimos três em inglês.
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EVOLUÇÃO DOS PROCESSOS DE AGENDA-SETTING NA REPÚBLICA POPULAR
DA CHINA – O CASO ILUSTRATIVO DAS REFORMAS DE SAÚDE
ANABELA SANTIAGO
anabela.santiago@ua.pt
Doutoranda em Políticas Públicas no Departamento de Ciências Sociais, Políticas e do Território
da Universidade de Aveiro (Portugal). É investigadora da unidade de investigação GOVCOPP
(Governança, Competitividade e Políticas Públicas), do mesmo Departamento e Universidade.
Mestre em Estudos Chineses, na vertente de Economia e Negócios, pela Universidade de Aveiro.
Atualmente é bolseira de investigação doutoral da Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia em
parceria com o Centro Científico e Cultural de Macau. Membro da Cost Action CHERN – China and
Europe Relations Network.
Resumo
Este ensaio é um exercício exploratório que visa traçar um esboço dos processos de agenda-
setting na República Popular da China (RPC), usando em concreto o caso das políticas de
saúde. Para tal, começa-se por traçar uma breve descrição do sistema de saúde chinês do
período Maoista até à contemporaneidade, procedendo-se a uma análise mais aprofundada
do período contemporâneo, de 2002 – ano de mudança de liderança do Partido Comunista
Chinês e consequente novo Plano Quinquenal – até à atualidade. O objetivo é perceber a
evolução dos processos envolvidos. A análise é feita com base no modelo analítico dos
Múltiplos Fluxos, defendido por John Kingdon, tomando como exemplo as reformas do sistema
de saúde chinês. O objetivo é perceber os pressupostos que têm vindo a nortear a definição
da agenda política chinesa e apontar tendências futuras com base no quadro evolutivo
resultante deste trabalho.
Palavras chave
Agenda-setting; República Popular da China; modelo de Múltiplos Fluxos; Políticas Chinesas
de Saúde; Sistema de Saúde Chinês
Abstract
This essay is an exploratory exercise that aims to outline the agenda-setting processes in the
People's Republic of China (PRC), specifically using the case of health policies. To this end, it
begins with a brief description of the Chinese health system from the Maoist period to the
current one, followed by a more in-depth analysis of the contemporary period, from 2002 –
year of change of leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and consequent new Five-Year
Plan – to the present day. The goal is to understand the evolution of the processes involved.
The analysis is based on the Multiple Streams analytical model, advocated by John Kingdon,
taking as an example the Chinese health care reforms. The main objective is to understand
the assumptions that have been guiding the definition of the Chinese political agenda and to
point out future trends based on the evolutionary framework resulting from this work.
Keywords
Agenda-setting, People’s Republic of China, Multiple Streams model, Chinese Health Policy,
Chinese Healthcare System
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Evolução dos processos de Agenda-Setting na República Popular da China –
o caso ilustrativo das reformas de saúde
Anabela Santiago
8
Como citar este artigo
Santiago, Anabela (2022). Evolução dos processos de agenda-setting na República Popular
da China – o caso ilustrativo das reformas de saúde. Janus.net, e-journal of international
relations. VOL13 N2, TD1 – Dossiê temático “Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da
China”, Dezembro 2022. Consultado [em linha] em data da última consulta,
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT22.1
Artigo recebido em 8 de Maio de 2022 e aceite para publicação em 25 de Maio de 2022
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Evolução dos processos de Agenda-Setting na República Popular da China –
o caso ilustrativo das reformas de saúde
Anabela Santiago
9
EVOLUÇÃO DOS PROCESSOS DE AGENDA-SETTING NA REPÚBLICA
POPULAR DA CHINA – O CASO ILUSTRATIVO DAS REFORMAS DE
SAÚDE
ANABELA SANTIAGO
Introdução
Neste ensaio, aborda-se o Modelo dos Múltiplos Fluxos enquanto modelo de análise para
a formulação de políticas, em particular, para a análise do processo de agenda-setting
no setor da saúde, tendo como objeto de estudo a República Popular da China. Em
primeiro lugar, faz-se uma breve descrição do sistema de saúde chinês no período em
estudo. De seguida, traça-se um quadro explicativo do processo de agenda-setting na
era contemporânea, com o intuito de perceber como é que essa etapa da formulação de
políticas se desenvolve, com que pressupostos e critérios e quais os seus principais
objetivos e tendências futuras.
Breve descrição do sistema de saúde chinês de 1950 até à atualidade
A Revolução Cultural ocorreu durante a liderança de Mao Zedong. Neste período, a maior
parte da população chinesa estava concentrada nas zonas rurais. Os cuidados de saúde
eram prestados principalmente dentro das comunas e tinham tendência a crescer com
um número crescente de centros de saúde e recursos humanos médicos (Silva et al.,
2013).
Em 1950, no Primeiro Congresso Nacional de Saúde, foi estabelecido um conjunto de
princípios a fim de alargar o acesso aos serviços de saúde a toda a população (Hesketh
&Zhu, 1997: p.1544):
- A medicina deve servir os trabalhadores, camponeses e soldados;
- A medicina preventiva deve ter precedência sobre a medicina terapêutica;
- A medicina tradicional chinesa deve ser integrada com a medicina convencional
ocidental;
- O trabalho de saúde deve ser combinado com movimentos de massas
Apesar de todas as conquistas sobre a liderança de Mao, durante os dez anos da
Revolução Cultural, o sistema de saúde existente sofreu um revés. De facto, a Revolução
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Evolução dos processos de Agenda-Setting na República Popular da China –
o caso ilustrativo das reformas de saúde
Anabela Santiago
10
Cultural é um período marcado por lutas políticas dentro do PCC que levaram a uma
posição mais repressiva e ditatorial por parte de Mao Zedong. Os trabalhadores urbanos,
incluindo médicos e enfermeiros, foram enviados de volta para o campo para trabalharem
como camponeses. As escolas e universidades médicas foram fechadas, bem como
departamentos de especialidade em hospitais. Os serviços de saúde eram principalmente
prestados dentro de áreas administrativas, conhecidas como comunas, e aplicando a
medicina tradicional chinesa.
O sistema cooperativo de saúde em vigor foi gradualmente extinto entre 1978 e 1981.
De acordo com Duckett (2011), especialmente nas zonas rurais, a abolição das comunas
deu origem a uma crescente prestação privada de serviços de saúde, visando uma
contribuição partilhada entre doentes e governo, no que diz respeito ao investimento na
saúde. Nas áreas urbanas, o processo de transição ocorreu a um ritmo mais lento, porque
foi sobretudo influenciado pela privatização de empresas, que só aconteceu na década
de 90, essencialmente com o florescimento das Empresas Municipais e Aldeias (Township
and Village Entreprises) e a criação de Zonas Económicas Especiais, bem como o
consequente aparecimento de prestadores privados de serviços de saúde.
A RPC assistiu a uma libertação quase completa das responsabilidades governamentais
em relação ao sistema de saúde em favor dos organismos locais e da iniciativa privada,
o que levou a custos elevados de cuidados de saúde primários básicos e a uma cobertura
de seguro mais fraca em todo o país. Alguns indicadores, tais como a mortalidade infantil
e a esperança de vida, melhoraram em comparação com o período de Mao, mas não de
forma significativa e, em termos gerais, a satisfação da população com os cuidados de
saúde primários não era boa.
No período seguinte, liderado pelo presidente Jiang Zemin, o sistema de saúde
permaneceu, grosso modo, como estava desde os anos 90. Esta década não foi marcada
por grandes mudanças nesse campo, portanto o acesso a cuidados de saúde na RPC era
extremamente deficiente devido aos custos dispendiosos de consultar um médico ou
comprar medicamentos, até os considerados mais básicos. A agitação social começou a
aparecer e a desafiar o lema superior do Partido Comunista Chinês (PCC) de alcançar
uma "sociedade harmoniosa". Este lema viria a ser a bandeira de governo do Presidente
Hu Jintao que presidiu ao PCC de 2003 a 2013 e que estabeleceu em 2004 um plano
estratégico intitulado “O Caminho de Desenvolvimento da Ascensão Pacífica da China”
(Zhongguo Heping Jueqi de Fazhan Daolu), com vista a alcançar o objetivo uma
sociedade harmoniosa do ponto de vista político e socioeconómico.
Consequentemente, o governo começou a pensar em possíveis reformas na saúde, as
quais pudessem melhorar o acesso, a qualidade dos serviços e os custos com saúde.
Assim, em 1998 e em 2000, as reformas em saúde foram realizadas para restabelecer
alguns dos fundos e seguros de saúde existentes na época de Mao Zedong e, a fim de
alocar mais recursos em instalações de cuidados primários, hospitais públicos, e assim
por diante, com o propósito último de alcançar um acesso mais amplo da população aos
serviços de saúde e a preços mais acessíveis.
A grande reforma viria, no entanto, a ocorrer no final de 2003 com a reintrodução do
seguro de saúde para toda a população – naquela época, 75% da população não estava
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coberta por nenhum seguro – e em 2009 com o sistema de saúde a ser colocado como
uma das principais prioridades da ação do governo (Yip & Hsiao, 2015).
Em 2013, quando Xi Jinping assumiu a liderança do governo da RPC, uma nova reforma
do sistema de saúde foi iniciada, com uma ligeira mudança nos valores sociais. De facto,
Xi decidiu aprofundar a reforma económica e confiar mais nas regras do mercado. De
acordo com Yip e Hsiao (2015: p. 58), “esta abordagem pró-mercado também se aplica
ao último ciclo de reforma da saúde”. O objetivo agora é introduzir regras de mercado
como forma de promover o investimento privado, mas também motivar os hospitais
públicos a melhorarem o seu desempenho, pois passariam a enfrentar a concorrência
privada. Além disso, a RPC designou como principais indústrias de crescimento os
serviços de saúde e a biomedicina, beneficiando essas duas áreas de incentivos fiscais.
Os efeitos dessa reforma recente ainda não são conclusivos, pois é necessário mais
tempo para se poder avaliar o impacto das medidas aplicadas. No entanto, pode-se
apontar desde já que o sistema de saúde nas últimas décadas, oscilou sempre entre duas
ideologias principais – a abordagem centrada no Estado e a abordagem de mercado – de
acordo com o conjunto predominante de valores sociais assumidos pelo líder do PCC.
Modelo dos Múltiplos Fluxos – breve descrição
Este modelo teórico foi desenvolvido por John Kingdon em 1984 e considera as políticas
públicas o resultado de quatro grandes processos: o estabelecimento de uma agenda de
políticas públicas; a consideração das alternativas para a formulação das mesmas; a
alternativa escolhida de entre as disponíveis e, por fim, a implementação da decisão. A
sua atenção centra-se essencialmente nos processos prévios à tomada de decisão, ou
seja, na formação da agenda e nas alternativas para a formulação das políticas (Kingdon,
1984).
No que diz respeito, à formação da agenda decorrente de uma mudança, esta converge
de três fluxos: (1) problemas; (2) soluções ou alternativas; e (3) política (Béland &
Howlett, 2016).
1. Fluxo dos problemas: decorre da perceção de problemas vistos como “públicos”, na
medida em que se torna necessária uma ação do Governo;
2. Fluxo das soluções: decorre de propostas oriundas de peritos que examinam os
problemas e propõem um conjunto de alternativas possíveis;
3. Fluxo da política: decorre de fatores influenciadores do corpo de ação política como
campanhas de grupos de interesse, mudanças de governo, eleições, entre outros.
Estes três fluxos são relativamente independentes entre si até ao surgimento de algum
acontecimento que despolete uma janela de oportunidade, que os faça convergir
(Birkland, 1997). Tal como Kingdon (1984, p.2) referiu: “The separate streams of
problems, policies, and politics come together at certain critical times. Solutions become
joined to problems, and both of them are joined to favourable political forces”.
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Apenas quando isso acontece é que um tema é considerado como um problema oficial,
entrando na agenda e no processo de política pública (Béland & Howlett, 2016). Por
norma, esses acontecimentos que se constituem como janelas de oportunidade são
acontecimentos negativos como desastres naturais, crises, ou incidentes que afetam a
sociedade civil no seu todo, ou grupos de destaque (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993).
O modelo dos Múltiplos Fluxos tem sido largamente usado para explicar determinados
tópicos ligados à formulação de políticas, nomeadamente, no que diz respeito à formação
de agenda e à tomada de decisão.
Agenda-setting – enquadramento teórico e especificidade do caso chinês
O processo de agenda-setting refere-se essencialmente ao processo de priorização de
problemas públicos em função do seu grau percecionado de relevância, determinado por
três agendas: a agenda dos media, a agenda pública e a agenda política, num
determinado momento (Kingdon, 1984,1995).
Para traçar a evolução do processo de agenda-setting na RPC, este trabalho baseia-se
essencialmente nos resultados de um artigo científico intitulado “Changing Models of
China’s Policy Agenda Setting” da autoria de Shaoguang Wang, publicado em 2008 na
revista Modern China (volume 34, pp. 56 -87).
Este autor definiu um quadro conceptual relativo ao processo de agenda-setting baseado
em duas variáveis: (i) os agentes responsáveis pela inclusão na agenda e tomada de
decisão; e (ii) o grau de envolvimento e participação da sociedade civil. Dessa matriz
resultam seis modelos aplicáveis ao processo de agenda-setting na China, os quais se
encontram sistematizados na Tabela 1, abaixo.
Tabela 1. Modelos de agenda-setting de políticas na China
Modelos de Agenda-Setting de
Políticas na China
Iniciador da Agenda
Decisores
Consultores
Cidadãos
Grau de participação
Fraco
Closed-door
Inside access
Outside access
Elevado
Mobilization
Reach-out
Popular pressure
Fonte: Wang, 2008
1. Closed-door: neste modelo, não há espaço para a participação da sociedade civil.
Os iniciadores são normalmente os decisores sem participação de outros agentes.
Vigorou na China do período imperial, embora ainda não tendo totalmente
desaparecido, encontra-se atualmente em desuso.
2. Mobilization: neste modelo, os decisores procuram o apoio do terceiro setor para
inclusão de determinado tópico na agenda política. Este modelo é muito familiar na
China, sobretudo no período maoísta, em que a propaganda era fortíssima no sentido
de mobilizar as populações em torno de uma determinada causa ou política pública.
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Desde a reforma de abertura económica dos anos 1980, este modelo tem sido menos
usado, embora apesar de ter perdido relevância também não tenha completamente
desaparecido.
3. Inside access: neste modelo, a agenda-setting fica maioritariamente a cargo dos
consultores próximos dos decisores políticos. Este modelo é bastante aplicado na RPC
no que toca a assuntos da esfera da segurança nacional e defesa. Foi popular na RPC
no período de liderança de Jiang Zemin em que se começou a valorizar o uso do
conhecimento científico e o desenvolvimento da tecnologia, como meios para o
desenvolvimento harmonioso da sociedade chinesa. De acordo com Wang (2008), é
expectável que este modelo continue a ter preponderância no futuro, em situações e
áreas muito específicas, como aliás tem revelado ser até agora.
4. Reach-out: neste modelo, os consultores continuam a ser os agentes principais do
processo de agenda-setting, mas com a diferença de que procuram a aceitação e
participação da sociedade civil. A relevância dada à agenda pública tem como objetivo
convencer os decisores a aceitarem determinadas ideias e tópicos na agenda política.
Não é um modelo muito utilizado na RPC, embora tenha tido um papel importante no
setor específico da saúde, aquando das sucessivas reformas do sistema.
5. Outside access: neste modelo, pode-se observar muitas similitudes com o modelo de
‘inside access’, ainda que os iniciadores do processo sejam distintos. Neste caso, as
propostas partem de grupos de interesses e cidadãos, embora ambos com um certo
nível de influência na sociedade. Até à atualidade recente, este modelo não tem tido
grande peso na formação da agenda política chinesa, mas prevê-se que possa vir a
exercer um papel crescente no futuro a médio-prazo (Wang, 2008).
6. Popular-pressure: este modelo é semelhante no seu modo de funcionamento ao
modelo do ‘outside access’, com a diferença de que o grau de envolvimento da
sociedade civil e do público em geral, é muito maior. De acordo com Wang (2008),
este é o modelo que define o processo de agenda-setting da era contemporânea
chinesa e veremos na secção seguinte as razões para que tal assim seja, à luz de
uma análise baseada no Modelo de Múltiplos Fluxos.
Aplicação do Modelo de Análise
Tal como referido anteriormente, nesta secção será aplicado o modelo de análise
desenvolvido por John Kingdon em 1984 – o modelo dos Múltiplos Fluxos – à análise da
evolução dos processos de agenda-setting na China, tomando como exemplo as reformas
do sistema de saúde, ocorridas a partir de 2002 e baseando as nossas assunções num
working paper desenvolvido por um grupo de peritos neste domínio: “Universal Health
Coverage: the case of China” de William Hsiao, Mingqiang Li e ShuFang Zhang, publicado
em 2014.
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i. Fluxo dos problemas
No que se refere ao sistema de saúde chinês, no início do novo milénio, este era o reflexo
de reformas falhadas ao longo dos anos 1990, em que a maioria da população não tinha
acesso aos cuidados de saúde, ou tinha acesso a preços insuportáveis, sem uma boa
cobertura da rede de seguros. Em 2003, surgiu a crise de saúde pública despoletada pela
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) que veio evidenciar a fragilidade do sistema
de saúde na RPC, à data marcado por um modelo de funcionamento orientado pelas leis
de mercado e por uma onda de privatizações.
O descontentamento da população começou a tornar-se cada vez mais evidente à medida
que o mesmo era alvo de notícia nos meios de comunicação social e à medida que se
intensificaram os estudos científicos e os pareceres técnicos quanto ao estado do sistema
de cuidados de saúde e ao empobrecimento da população, por via do forte incremento
nos gastos pessoais com saúde. Na sequência da SARS em 2003, muitos estudos foram
encomendados a entidades peritas no setor da saúde, de entre as quais se destaca o
estudo do “China’s Medical System Reform Study Group” integrado no Development
Research Centre of the State Council (DRC), um think tank semi-independente com o
apoio de organizações internacionais tais como, o Banco Mundial e da Organização
Mundial de Saúde, e cujo relatório revelou que as reformas levadas a cabo e as medidas
implementadas foram um verdadeiro fracasso (Wang, 2008 e Hsiao et al., 2014). Em
2005, esses dados encontram eco na comunicação social, tal como refere Wang (2008):
“(…) the Pandora’s box had been opened and the public would not accept any
further reform measures unless the government made big policy
adjustments.”
Medidas viriam a ser tomadas como veremos no fluxo das soluções abaixo, tendo entrado
este tema da saúde na agenda-setting, por via da combinação dos modelos de reach-out
e popular –pressure.
ii. Fluxo das soluções
O fluxo das soluções passa, segundo Kingdon, pelo espírito de iniciativa de agentes de
destaque que identificam os problemas e apresentam alternativas para seu
solucionamento. No caso chinês, devido à natureza autoritária característica do sistema
político vigente, e apesar de uma mudança gradual deste paradigma pelo poder que
advém de novos media, nomeadamente a Internet, continua a verificar-se uma margem
limitada para o espírito de iniciativa dos agentes individuais, sendo que “as ideologias
dos líderes políticos e dos burocratas moldam diretamente a direção das reformas e das
políticas associadas” (Hsiao et al., 2014).
O debate ideológico presente na génese das reformas de saúde esteve sempre baseado
no financiamento do sistema de saúde, e na dualidade de modelos assentes, ora no
controlo do Estado, ora no neoliberalismo e nas leis do mercado.
Em 2003, aquando da crise de saúde causada pela SARS, a RPC já tinha passado de um
sistema de cuidados de saúde assente na ação do Governo para um sistema assente nas
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leis do mercado, com resultados insatisfatórios. Nesta fase, os peritos estavam divididos
em dois campos opostos, os pró-mercado e os pró-estado, embora já houvesse nessa
altura uma série de relatórios publicados evidenciando os falhanços da liberalização
económica no setor da saúde, traduzindo-se em cuidados de saúde deficitários e a preços
inacessíveis para a grande maioria da população chinesa (Hsiao et al., 2014).
Atualmente, ambas as ideologias continuam alvo de debate na esfera dos decisores
políticos, dos agentes envolvidos e da opinião pública no que toca, por exemplo, à gestão
dos cuidados hospitalares. No entanto, no que diz respeito à prestação de cuidados de
saúde primários, ficou definido por meio de várias diretrizes do Governo central de que
este era o principal responsável pelo financiamento desses cuidados de saúde que
constituir-se como o elo de ligação e o primeiro contacto dos utentes com o sistema de
saúde e que deve ser assegurado de forma equitativo para todos (Hsiao et al., 2014).
iii. Fluxo da política
No caso da RPC, o fluxo da política está sobremaneira enredado no fluxo dos problemas
e no campo das ideologias (Hsiao et al.,2014). A saúde foi durante anos um tópico que
não estava, de todo, como prioridade na agenda. A crise de saúde pública da SARS foi o
acontecimento de choque que criou a janela de oportunidade que estava latente desde a
década de 1980 e sobretudo 1990.
Em 2004, é criado o documento com os “Princípios Científicos para o Desenvolvimento”,
em que um desses princípios se refere precisamente ao campo da saúde, com o intuito
de alcançar uma cobertura universal dos cuidados de saúde primários. Nesse
alinhamento, é criada em 2006 uma Equipa Interdisciplinar composta por organizações
não-governamentais nacionais e internacionais, peritos do Banco Mundial e da
Organização Mundial de Comércio, entre outros, para avaliar as medidas necessárias à
reforma do sistema de saúde chinês. No âmbito duma conferência de dois dias sobre o
tema, ressaltaram as seguintes conclusões do trabalho conduzido pelo grupo de peritos
multidisciplinar (Hsiao et al., 2014):
- O Governo deve financiar a prevenção como bem público;
- Se a equidade é prioridade da nação, o Governo deve tomar a responsabilidade do
financiamento dos cuidados de saúde;
- Visto que o financiamento nos cuidados de saúde primários para melhorar a saúde é
mais eficiente, a RPC deve orientar os seus gastos elevados com os hospitais e
reorientá-los para os cuidados de saúde primários;
- Existem falhas severas na prestação de serviços de saúde, no fornecimento por parte
de farmacêuticas de renome e nos dispositivos médicos, áreas que devem ser alvo
de regulamentação.
Com base nestas recomendações que foram transmitidas ao Conselho de Estado, foi
elaborada uma proposta pelos membros desta equipa interdisciplinar que conduziria em
2009 ao mais recente plano de reforma de saúde a ser aplicado a nível nacional. O
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procedimento da elaboração da proposta até à sua aprovação final que se efetivou na
implementação da reforma em 2009 foi, de certa forma, inédito na RPC, uma vez que a
proposta proveio de agentes quer internos, quer externos, considerados “consultores”.
Além disso, previamente à versão final da proposta, a versão preliminar foi tornada
pública e sujeita aos comentários e sugestões da sociedade civil (Hsiao et al., 2014).
Pode considerar-se que foi usado o modelo de Reach-out, pouco comum na RPC, mas
sempre que usado neste país, o terá sido no setor da saúde.
A dita reforma foi pensada em três fases: de 2009 a 2011, como fase tida de
implementação, de 2011 a 2015 como fase de consolidação e finalmente de 2016 a 2020,
em que se espera que os objetivos estejam já alcançados. Os objetivos foram delineados
de acordo com cinco principais categorias: (1) expansão da cobertura de seguros de
saúde; (2) disponibilização de serviços públicos de saúde iguais para todos; (3) melhoria
da eficiência e eficácia do sistema atendimento básico de saúde primária; (4)
estabelecimento de um sistema nacional de medicamentos essenciais bem
regulamentado; e (5) implementação de reformas-piloto em hospitais públicos (Hsiao et
al., 2014).
Atualmente, já se encontraria em processo de avaliação, não fossem as contrariedades
advindas do contexto de pandemia causado pelo surto de Covid-19, com epicentro
conhecido precisamente em território chinês.
Resultados e conclusões
Deste trabalho, ressaltamos que a ideologia influencia o processo de agenda-setting e
formulação de políticas na RPC, sobretudo na adoção de conceitos tais como equidade,
neoliberalismo, forças de mercado e seguros sociais e de saúde. No entanto, a aplicação
integral e sem adaptações da liberalização económica ao setor da saúde durante as
décadas de 1980 e 1990 não trouxe bons resultados no caso chinês (Hsiao et al., 2014),
embora até aos dias de hoje as duas ideologias que opõem Estado vs. Mercado continuem
em constante debate, no que diz respeito às políticas de saúde.
Desde a reforma de abertura económica em 1978, o sistema político chinês, embora seja
designado de ‘autoritarismo resiliente’, sofreu uma evolução no sentido de ser hoje mais
permeável à participação pública de académicos, organizações internacionais,
organizações não-governamentais nacionais e grupos de interesse no que toca à
identificação de problemas e participação no processo de tomada de decisão (Hsiao et
al., 2014).
Ao longo do período em estudo, vários modelos de agenda-setting coexistiram, embora
sempre houvesse um modelo preponderante nas diversas fases. Ainda hoje coexistem,
pois não são totalmente estanques e a sua aplicação varia em função dos assuntos
levados para a agenda. No entanto, este trabalho permite concluir que à medida que a
influência dos pesquisadores políticos, peritos, agentes de participação da sociedade civil
e meios de comunicação social aumenta, os modelos ‘closed-door’ e ‘mobilization’
tornaram-se um pouco obsoletos, em detrimento do modelo ‘inside-access’ que se tornou
prática corrente na RPC. Os modelos de ‘outside access’ e ‘reach-out’ são ocasionalmente
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observados, mas a maior mudança de paradigma está no papel crescente do modelo de
‘popular-pressure’ na definição da agenda política na RPC.
Nomeadamente, a partir de 2002, em virtude de a RPC ter defendido um progresso
baseado no avanço do conhecimento científico, surgiram uma série de grupos de think
tanks e institutos que começaram a ser envolvidos nos projetos de tomada de decisão
política, dando destaque aos modelos ‘inside-access’ e também ‘reach-out’, este último
em particular no setor da saúde. Pode-se inferir que ambos os modelos irão continuar a
ter um papel significativo no futuro em termos de agenda-setting.
É possível apontar o alcance de um dos objetivos fulcrais da reforma do sistema de
saúde: a cobertura universal da rede de cuidados de saúde. Enquadrada na teoria dos
Múltiplos Fluxos, requereu a convergência de vários fatores, tais como: (i) o
reconhecimento do problema – sistema de saúde não equitativo e ineficiente; (ii) o
espaço político criado por momentos catalisadores – crise do SARS em 2003; (iii) ideias
inovadoras no campo da política e da alocação de recursos, através das medidas
propostas pelo think tank interdisciplinar referido acima, entre outras. No caso do
contexto muito específico que foi observado no presente trabalho, esta convergência
demorou décadas até chegar ao seu ponto de maturação.
A crise de saúde pública oriunda do surto de SARS foi, inegavelmente, o acontecimento
que se constituiu como “janela de oportunidade”, a qual tornou possível que o problema
já há muito identificado e as possíveis soluções (dois fluxos do modelo de múltiplos
fluxos) se combinassem entre si juntando-se ao terceiro fluxo da política. Tal como Cobb
e Elder (1975) referem, foi o momento em que a agenda pública se tornou a agenda
política, por via da pressão popular – tendo imperado, de forma inovadora na RPC,
embora com tendência crescente, o modelo ‘popular-pressure’.
Finalmente, é possível concluir que o modelo ‘popular-pressure’ só se torna plausível
quando as prioridades do público coincidem com as do Governo, o que nos remete para
as palavras do Primeiro-Ministro chinês Wen Jiabao em 2006 “(…) a agenda-setting está
a tornar-se um processo cada vez mais científico e democrático” e “(…) a agenda-setting
enfatiza soluções para os principais problemas, relevantes quer para a grande estratégia
nacional de desenvolvimento social e económico, quer para a população como um todo.”.
O caso chinês permite uma análise histórica do processo complexo de agenda-setting
(Wang, 2008), em que o Modelo de Múltiplos Fluxos se revela muito útil na observação
e interpretação das várias forças que se enquadram nos fluxos determinados pelo dito
modelo, as quais têm de maturar até uma conjugação que resulte em inclusão de um
tópico na agenda e consequente adoção de medidas e até reformas mais profundas,
como aconteceu no caso do sistema de saúde chinês.
Revelou ser um modelo de análise aplicável à análise da evolução do processo de agenda-
setting e muito interessante no âmbito específico do setor da saúde, permitindo perceber
melhor todo o quadro conjuntural que concorre para a escolha de determinado tópico da
agenda política.
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Referências
Baumgartner, F. & Jones, B. (1993). Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago
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Practice, 18:3, 221-227.
Birkland, T. (1997). After Disaster: Agenda Setting, Public Policy and Focusing Events.
Washington, D.C.: Georgetown Univ. Press.
Duckett, J. (2011). Challenging the economic reform paradigm: policy and politics in the
early 1980s’ collapse of the rural cooperative medical system. The China Quarterly,
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Hesketh,T. & Zhu, W.(1997). Health in China: From Mao to market reform. British Medical
Journal. Volume 314. pp.1543-1545.
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Kingdon, J. (1984). Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policy. The Academy of Political
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Silva, A.; Vargas, N.; Venturini, R. (2013). Histórico e atualidade da política de saúde na
República Popular da China. Vitória: UFES.
Wang, S. (2008). Changing Models of China's Policy Agenda Setting. Modern China,
Vol.34, issue 1.
Yip, W. & Hsiao, W. (2015). What Drove the Cycles of Chinese Health System Reforms?.
Health Systems & Reform, 1:1, 52-61.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL13 N2, TD1
Dossiê temático
Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China
Dezembro 2022
19
A DIÁSPORA CHINESA NO BRASIL: DISPERSÃO, MITOLOGIA DA TERRA DE
ORIGEM E PROMESSA DE RETORNO
DANIEL BICUDO VÉRAS
daniel.veras@fgv.br
Pesquisador no Núcleo de Estudos Brasil-China da Fundação Getúlio Vargas - Direito - Rio de
Janeiro (Brasil), e é convidado em cursos de Sociologia e Filosofia para alunos de Universidades
dos Estados Unidos da América (Syracuse, Colorado Boulder, Missouri) pela CUSSA – China
Universities Summer Schools Association. Trabalhou na Prefeitura de Santo André-SP como
pesquisador do Departamento de Indicadores Sociais e Econômicos da Secretaria de Orçamento
e Planejamento Participativo. Trabalhou na Hubei University, China, onde lecionou língua
portuguesa e cultura brasileira, estabelecendo intercâmbio educacional e cultural entre Brasil e
China, em parceria com o Instituto Confúcio e UNESP. Na ocasião, foi membro do Centro de
Estudos Brasileiros da Universidade. É pesquisador-membro do Núcleo de Estudos e Pesquisas
Urbanas - da PUCSP, e do Grupo de Pesquisa Diálogos Interculturais. Foi também do quadro
editorial do Wudpecker Journal of Sociology and Anthropology, e de 2010 a 2018 apresentou a
video-conferência anual “Brasil: Sociedade e Economia” para o Institut Supérieur d’Ingénierie
d´Affaires – ISIALM, França. Possui doutorado e graduação em Ciências Sociais pela Pontifícia
Universidade Católica de São Paulo e mestrado em Comunicação e Semiótica pela mesma
universidade. Tem experiência nas áreas de Comunicação e Ciência Política, atuando
principalmente nos seguintes temas: China, arte, cidade, migração e cultura, inglês.
Resumo
O presente trabalho visa a fornecer um panorama da presença de chineses no Brasil,
estimados em 300.000. Tendo como base a relação dialética entre Brasil e China, a presente
investigação trabalha com as seguintes hipóteses, que são também as linhas de
problematização: A China expulsa; O Brasil recebe; Os sino-brasileiros emergem (a síntese
do processo). A metodologia consistiu inicialmente em pesquisa bibliográfica. Posteriormente,
houve coleta de dados secundários, oriundos do Museu da Imigração em São Paulo. O grosso
do material empírico consistiu em entrevistas com cinco chineses - dados qualitativos,
transcrição e análise (aplicação de questionários). Além disso, fez-se um levantamento
fotográfico e documental da presença chinesa em São Paulo, em pontos da cidade específicos.
A pesquisa iniciou em 2003 e o campo e entrevistas foram realizadas em 2006. Após este
período, estudou-se comunicação asiático-brasileira em redes sociais. Foi feita então a análise
de todos os materiais. Para o conceito de diáspora, foram usadas referências de Stuart Hall e
Adam McKeown. Na análise socioeconómica, o conceito Marxiano “exército industrial de
reserva” dá conta da presença de grandes contingentes populacionais circulando pelo mundo.
O mecanismo de pull e push entre populações e territórios é uma construção utilizada por
Paul Singer e Herbert Klein para explicar o movimento populacional. Sobre a construção de
uma identidade brasileira que incluísse também asiáticos e seus descendentes, os trabalhos
de Jeffrey Lesser merecem destaque. Sobre a inserção de chineses na sociedade brasileira,
foram utilizadas teorias de Sigmund Freud e Eric Hobsbawn. O Brasil, pelo desenvolvimento
de seu mercado, torna-se polo de atração de pessoas do mundo todo, inclusive chineses.
Como colocado por entrevistados, o Brasil é visto como um país “em construção”. E hoje os
chineses têm um lugar na construção de uma identidade brasileira..
Palavras chave
Brasil; China; migração; diáspora; São Paulo
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL13 N2, TD1
Dossiê temático – Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China - Dezembro 2022, pp. 19-37
A diaspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de retorno
Daniel Bicudo Véras
20
Abstract
This paper aims to provide an overview of the presence of Chinese in Brazil, who are estimated
to be about 300,000 in number. Based on the dialectical relationship between Brazil and
China, this research works with the following hypotheses, which are also the lines of
problematization: China expels; Brazil receives; Sino-Brazilians emerge (the synthesis of the
process). The methodology consisted initially of bibliographical research. Later on, secondary
data was collected from the Museu da Imigração in São Paulo. The bulk of the empirical
material consists of interviews with five Chinese individuals, providing qualitative data, a
transcription and an analysis (application of questionnaires). In addition, a photographic and
documentary survey of the Chinese presence in São Paulo at specific points in the city was
carried out. The research began in 2003, and the fieldwork and interviews were carried out in
2006. After this period, the author studied Asian-Brazilian communication in social networks.
An analysis of all the materials was then made. For the concept of diaspora, references from
Stuart Hall and Adam McKeown were used. In the socioeconomic analysis, the Marxian concept
"industrial reserve army" accounts for the presence of large population contingents moving
around the world. The pull and push mechanism between populations and territories is a
construct used by Paul Singer and Herbert Klein to explain population movement. Regarding
the construction of a Brazilian identity that would also include Asians and their descendants,
the works of Jeffrey Lesser are worth mentioning. Concerning the insertion of the Chinese into
Brazilian society, the theories by Sigmund Freud and Eric Hobsbawn were used. Brazil, due to
the development of its market, has become a pole of attraction for people from all over the
world, including the Chinese. As the interviewees said, Brazil is seen as a country "under
construction". And today the Chinese have a place in the construction of a Brazilian identity.
Keywords
Brazil; China; migration; diaspora; São Paulo
Como citar este artigo
Véras, Daniel Bicudo (2022). A diáspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de
origem e promessa de retorno. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL13 N2, TD1
– Dossiê temático “Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China”, Dezembro 2022.
Consultado [em linha] em data da última consulta, https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-
7251.DT22.2
Artigo recebido em 30 de Abril de 2022 e aceite para publicação em 15 de Maio de 2022
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL13 N2, TD1
Dossiê temático – Perspectivas sobre a presença internacional da China - Dezembro 2022, pp. 19-37
A diaspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de retorno
Daniel Bicudo Véras
21
A DIÁSPORA CHINESA NO BRASIL: DISPERSÃO, MITOLOGIA DA
TERRA DE ORIGEM E PROMESSA DE RETORNO
DANIEL BICUDO VÉRAS
1. Introdução
Ressaltando a dimensão cultural do fenômeno migratório, o presente trabalho visa a
fornecer um panorama da presença de chineses no Brasil, estimados em 300.000, uma
relativamente pequena porcentagem da população brasileira, com mais de 200 milhões
de pessoas. Também uma pequena parcela da dispersão dos chineses pelo mundo,
estimados em mais de 35 milhões de pessoas.
A China é do Conselho de Segurança da ONU, e desde 2009, o maior parceiro comercial
do Brasil. Por estas razões, são cada vez mais frequentes estudos sobre a China do ponto
de vista de números, do comércio internacional, e também sobre desenvolvimento (no
sentido de experiências que podem ensinar o Brasil a vencer problemas históricos neste
quesito). Entretanto, no caso brasileiro ainda há carência de estudos sobre a parte
cultural desta relação. A China está investindo seriamente em aumentar cursos e
departamentos de língua portuguesa e cultura brasileira, ao passo que o Brasil se
mantém estagnado na sua pesquisa sobre a China. O resultado ainda é o mútuo
desconhecimento entre os dois países. José Roberto Teixeira Leite (1999), Gylberto Freire
e alguns outros poucos pioneiros já destacaram a influência chinesa no Brasil desde os
tempos coloniais, num intenso intercâmbio de pessoas, artes, costumes, espécies
animais e vegetais entre Brasil, África e Ásia promovido pelos portugueses. A partir dos
anos de 1970, surgiram mais estudos sobre a imigração chinesa no Brasil, como o de
Yang (1974), que é um trabalho seminal no Brasil.
Centros de pesquisa europeus e estadunidenses têm as suas próprias inquietações e
próprios interesses no estudo sobre a China. O Brasil ainda carece de uma perspectiva
própria, que contemple aos interesses brasileiros no estudo da China. Basicamente, falta
estabelecer uma conexão entre estas duas grandes regiões em desenvolvimento. O que
pretendemos adquirir aqui é esta perspectiva, ampliando o entendimento cultural, algo
que em muito pode auxiliar as relações bilaterais, melhorando o comércio e intercâmbios
que vão além do cultural.
Levando-se em consideração o conceito de exército industrial de reserva (Marx, s.d.:
730-749), há forças de atração e repulsão de população entre regiões do planeta.
Obviamente, migrações são recursos para desenvolver a economia das regiões
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A diaspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de retorno
Daniel Bicudo Véras
22
receptoras, trazendo força de trabalho e qualificações, sem falar no ganho trazido pela
diversidade cultural. Entretanto, diferentemente do capital que circula livremente pelo
planeta, as pessoas têm sua liberdade de circulação cerceada nas fronteiras. Isto resulta
em diversas crises de refugiados, sendo o campo o paradigma do espaço das fronteiras,
em que é naturalizada a privação de direitos de certos grupos sociais (Agamben, 2004:
79).
Os movimentos populacionais comunicam regiões, mesmo que os seus respectivos
Estados não participem ativamente ou alavanquem as ações. Se são do interesse de suas
classes dominantes, as ações ocorrerão (Singer, 1973: 38). Há regiões que têm excesso
de população, que não encontra ocupação por ter sido deixada de fora por processos
excludentes. Tais regiões são expulsoras de pessoas (pushing regions), sendo a Europa
e a Ásia da passagem do século XIX para o XX exemplos clássicos. Ao mesmo tempo,
regiões de vazio populacional, abundância de terra não-explorada e economias em
ascensão atraem força de trabalho (pulling regions), sendo todo o continente americano
da passagem do século XIX para o XX um exemplo. Levando em consideração tais
conceitos de pull e push, explorados pelo historiador Herbert Klein (2000: 13), aqui se
procura identificar as forças de repulsão e atração de população. Se na passagem do
século XIX para o XX, a Europa e a Ásia eram lugares de excedente populacional e as
Américas eram lugares de vazio demográfico, os emigrantes promovem um encontro que
busca suprir as necessidades econômicas das regiões em jogo
1
. Neste trabalho
especificamente, cabe analisar as condições chinesas que levam parte de sua população
a sair, e as condições atrativas do Brasil, em especial São Paulo, para o recebimento de
pessoas do mundo todo.
E mais interessante ainda para o presente trabalho é o produto deste processo: o
surgimento de uma comunidade que é sino-brasileira. Ao entrevistar membros desta
comunidade, procurou-se compreender fatores de pull e push, bem como a construção
desta comunidade, seus valores, tensões (internas e externas), e universo cultural. Daí
também a importância do conceito de diáspora.
Segundo o Instituto Sociocultural Brasil-China (Ibrachina), de São Paulo, há 300 mil
chineses no Brasil, correspondendo a 5% do total de imigrantes no país. Se a imigração
chinesa não é representativa dentro do Brasil, ficando atrás de grupos como portugueses,
espanhóis, italianos e japoneses, então por que estudar o tema? Se dentro da diáspora
chinesa, a parte brasileira é ainda bastante diminuta, então por que estudar o tema?
Dada a relevância das relações comerciais e diplomáticas entre Brasil e China, todos os
pontos de conexão que possam aproximar os dois países, minimizando o problema do
desconhecimento mútuo, são muito pertinentes. Ademais, é um grupo de imigração
contemporâneo, que ainda cresce no Brasil.
Tendo como base a relação dialética entre Brasil e China, a presente investigação
trabalha com as seguintes hipóteses:
1
Em sua vasta pesquisa sobre os processos migratórios de chineses rumo ao continente americano, Evelyn
Hu-DeHart destaca a América Latina como espaço privilegiado para a imigração chinesa. Estudando mais a
fundo o caso mexicano, a autora mostra como a região foi importante para receber chineses nos diversos
momentos de exclusão por parte dos Estados Unidos desde o século XIX (Hu-DeHart, 2013: 89).
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A diaspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de retorno
Daniel Bicudo Véras
23
− A China expulsa (push factors);
− O Brasil recebe (pull factors);
− Os sino-brasileiros emergem (a síntese do processo).
De certa forma refletindo a estrutura de hipóteses, além de considerar a perspectiva de
retorno que caracteriza uma diáspora, o trabalho se divide em sete partes: 1. Introdução;
2. Deixando a China; 3. Estabelecendo-se no Brasil; 4. Os retornados; 5. Conclusões; 6.
Imagens e a 7. Bibliografia.
A metodologia consistiu inicialmente em pesquisa bibliográfica, sobretudo sobre a
diáspora chinesa pelo mundo, e sobre a história das imigrações para o Brasil, porém
como temas separados, pois havia ainda poucos trabalhos a abordar os dois temas
juntos, ou seja, a imigração chinesa para o Brasil. Posteriormente, houve coleta de dados
secundários, oriundos do Museu da Imigração em São Paulo.
O grosso do material empírico consistiu em entrevistas com chineses - dados qualitativos,
transcrição e análise (aplicação de questionários) – entrevistados livres para discorrer e
opinar. O que os entrevistados têm em comum é ter nascido na China, mas procurou-se
uma variedade de gênero, grupo etário, origem (ter vindo da China Continental ou de
Taiwan, por exemplo), ocupações. Além disso, procedeu-se ao levantamento fotográfico
e documental da presença chinesa em São Paulo, em pontos da cidade específicos.
A pesquisa iniciou-se em 2003 para a confecção de tese de doutoramento, que foi
defendida em 2008. O campo e entrevistas foram realizadas em 2006. Após este período,
o pesquisador voltou-se para a comunicação asiático-brasileira em redes sociais, como
YouTube, Facebook e Instagram nos últimos anos. Foi feita então a análise de todos os
materiais.
Para o conceito de diáspora, foram usadas referências de Stuart Hall (2003: 25-47) e
Adam McKeown (1999: 308), entre outros. É um conceito central nesta investigação, que
só pode ser chamado como tal quando existem estas três dimensões:
− Dispersão física pelo mundo (afinal, a palavra vem do grego dia speiro, que significa
“o espalhar das sementes”);
− A criação de uma mitologia e narrativas sobre a terra de origem;
− Promessa de retorno.
Outro autor que ressalta a promessa de retorno no processo migratório é Abdelmalek
Sayad (1998: 176).
Na parte social-econômica, o conceito de Karl Marx (s.d.: 730-749) “exército industrial
de reserva” dá conta da presença de grandes contingentes populacionais circulando pelo
mundo, basicamente por razões econômicas. Entretanto, quando se pensa deslocamento
por falta de segurança, logo se pensa em Giorgio Agamben (2004). A vida da
contemporaneidade é a vida na fronteira, questão abordada por Homi Bhabha (2003:
19). Já o referido mecanismo de pull e push entre populações e territórios é uma
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A diaspora chinesa no Brasil: dispersão, mitologia da terra de origem e promessa de retorno
Daniel Bicudo Véras
24
construção utilizada por Paul Singer (1973) e Herbert Klein (2000) para explicar o
movimento populacional.
Sobre a construção de uma identidade brasileira que incluísse também asiáticos e seus
descendentes, os trabalhos de Jeffrey Lesser (2001: 18-21; 2007: 189) merecem
destaque
2
. Sobre a inserção de chineses na sociedade brasileira, teorias de Sigmund
Freud (1961), Eric Hobsbawn (1975) e outros que ajudam a lidar com a complexidade
da questão
3
.
O estudo permite identificar uma intrínseca conexão entre processos econômicos,
políticos e culturais, sendo o Brasil palco de rápidas e intensas transformações, refletindo
tendências históricas e criando uma singular realidade. Ao ouvir a comunidade sino-
brasileira e documentar a sua presença na cidade de São Paulo, o trabalho procura
sistematizar informações de um assunto relevante para as relações internacionais do
Brasil, para o autoconhecimento de suas origens, além de se constituir em ponto de
partida para um terreno ainda inexplorado e cheio de possibilidades para expandir. O
que resultou foi o registro de fala dos membros de tal comunidade, e um entendimento
do Brasil como uma parte deste processo e palco de intensas disputas narrativas,
políticas e culturais.
2. Deixando a China
Internamente, a parte meridional da China sempre foi a grande exportadora de pessoas.
Desde a Dinastia Qing (1644-1912), as províncias de Guangzhou e Fujian eram as terras
mais populosas, onde o caos social se fazia sentir. Criminalidade, desemprego, e
empobrecimento eram abundantes na região, sendo um fator para explicar a saída de
pessoas. Ao mesmo tempo, tais regiões, por serem costeiras e portuárias, eram mais
abertas e oferecedoras de oportunidades e acesso ao Oceano Pacífico, sem falar na
proximidade de Hong Kong e Macau. De certa forma, as comunidades chinesas pelo
mundo têm pronunciados traços do sul da China, mais do que do norte ou outras regiões.
Isto se dá pelo fato de que mais chineses saíram justamente desta região. Em certa
medida, houve fluxo de trabalhadores vindos de Macau, alguns dos quais sequestrados
ou enganados sobre sua vida nas Américas. Estamos aqui a falar do período da
2
Para ser aceita, a identidade asiático-brasileira precisa ser amplamente discutida e negociada, conferindo a
este grupo a condição de eterno estrangeiro (Lesser, 2001: 18-21; 293-294). Mais recentemente, Lesser
(2007: 189) faz uma reflexão acerca de estereótipos que envolvem os asiático-brasileiros, sobretudo as
mulheres – que são sexualizadas. Como os japoneses são o paradigma de imigração asiática para o Brasil,
tais questões afetam diretamente a comunidade Nikkei brasileira, ou nipo-brasileira.
3
Freud (1961: 114) salienta o narcisismo das pequenas diferenças, postulando que há mais problemas entre
culturas próximas do que entre culturas distantes, porque está sempre presente, em cada povo, o medo de
ter a sua identidade confundida com a do outro. Já Eric Hobsbawn (1975: 103-121), por sua vez, ressalta
o caráter artificial dos nacionalismos, à medida que estes são rapidamente construídos para servir de
instrumento para certa classe social que ascende. O autor demonstra aqui a íntima relação entre migração
e nação - e como esta noção de nação será construída nas comunidades no exterior. Já nas tardias
unificações da Itália e da Alemanha no século XIX, pode-se ver nitidamente a fabricação de nacionalismos
para servir a um interesse de classe. A artificialidade do conceito de nação é também um assunto
amplamente trabalhado por Gellner (1983: 56). Já Anderson (2008: 71), por sua vez, faz detalhada análise
das nações como comunidades imaginadas e sobre o que enseja esta construção.
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25
exportação de mão-de-obra coolie, que se deu de 1810 a 1920 pelas mãos de
portugueses e ingleses, que eram concorrentes entre si (Yang, 1974: 18-20).
De fato, temos números de chineses pelo Brasil e pelo mundo, mas não se pode ter uma
precisão. Fatores como migrações ilegais (boat people, cabeças-de-cobra, tráfico de
pessoas) e o fato de muitos chineses circularem com passaportes outros que não da
China podem explicar a imprecisão. Por exemplo, muitos chineses entraram no Brasil
com passaporte moçambicano, por viverem neste país africano, em certos casos por
gerações. Caso tenham vindo antes de 1975, estes chineses entravam com passaporte
português. Todos estes fatos obscurecem as estimativas.
Na China, emigração é um tema sensível. De certa forma, desfavorece a reputação do
governo chinês, à medida que evidencia que muitos deixaram o país em busca de
melhores condições de vida. Inicialmente tidos como traidores da pátria, nos fins do
século XIX, a partir do momento em que mandam dinheiro de volta à China, passam a
ser vistos como beneméritos relativamente ao país de origem. Novas identidades, então,
são criadas. Huaren (华人) ou huaqiao (华侨) são os chineses ultramarinos. Seus
descendentes, os huayi (华裔). Mais recentemente, as lideranças políticas falam mais em
zhonghua da jiating (中华大家庭), ou grande família chinesa, em seus discursos. Isto não
só salva a reputação da China como também torna estes chineses no exterior de certa
forma sujeitos ao controle do Estado chinês. Os chineses têm uma forte cultura de
retorno à terra natal, e isto se dá na ligação com a aldeia rural de origem (até
recentemente a maioria do país era agrário), remessas de dinheiro do exterior ou mesmo
repatriamento de corpos para serem sepultados na China. Em São Paulo é muito comum
encontrar associações de chineses ligadas a uma determinada província ou cidade, muito
mais que ao país todo.
3. Estabelecendo-se no Brasil
Enquanto a iniciativa coolie (苦力) teve ampla aceitação como mão-de-obra asiática para
substituir a força de trabalho escravizada de origem africana em diversos países no
século XIX, no Brasil isto não se deu. Chineses mineradores dominaram o cenário no
Chile, África do Sul e Austrália. No Peru, destacaram-se como extratores de guano, ao
passo que nos Estados Unidos, Canadá e Panamá foram construtores de estradas de
ferro. Em Cuba, foram amplamente empregados como agricultores. Diferentemente, no
México e Indonésia, os chineses se converteram em poderosa burguesia comercial, tendo
enfrentado, por seu destaque conquistado na sociedade, severas hostilidades por parte
de populações locais.
No Brasil de fins do século XIX, o último país a abolir oficialmente a escravidão nas
Américas, colocou-se um acalorado debate sobre a substituição de mão-de-obra
escravizada. Marcado pelo racismo, tal debate era sobre a política de “branqueamento”
da população e incentivo da vinda de imigrantes europeus ao Brasil, sobretudo para as
lavouras de café do sudeste. E posteriormente, a crescente industrialização do estado de
São Paulo. Realmente, a Europa se via com crescente contingente populacional
empobrecido, carecendo de terras e ocupação. Processos excludentes, como as tardias
unificações da Itália e da Alemanha, faziam crescer aquilo que Karl Marx (s.d.: 730-749)
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iria designar como exército industrial de reserva. Ao mesmo tempo, tais regiões viam
crescer internamente movimentos sociais questionadores, como o socialista e o
anarquista. Inicialmente, tais trabalhadores politizados não se deixavam contentar pelas
condições de vida e trabalho no Brasil. Desta forma, começaram a ser considerados os
trabalhadores asiáticos.
A primeira iniciativa oficial de se trazerem de trabalhadores coolies ao Brasil se deu ainda
na época colonial, na corte de D. João VI em 1812, em que poucos plantadores de chá
vieram ao Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro – iniciativa que resultou em fugas e suicídios,
dificultando muito o prosseguimento da iniciativa coolie no país austral, a despeito de
posteriores tentativas e missões diplomáticas. A dinastia Qing, envolvida em problemas
internos de caos social, guerras do ópio, pressão de nações imperialistas, ao constatar
as más condições de vida destas populações, achou por bem interromper o fluxo. Ele
ainda ocorreu, contudo. Por exemplo, o dia 15 de agosto é desde 2018 o Dia da Imigração
Chinesa (data federal), em referência à chegada do vapor Malange, em 1900 (tendo feito
a rota Lisboa – Rio).
O Brasil ainda estava interessado em trazer trabalhadores asiáticos, e então recorreu aos
japoneses, um grupo de trabalhadores preterido pelos Estados Unidos, e também
numeroso pela excludente Restauração Meiji do século XIX. Desta forma, em 1908,
atracava no porto de Santos o Kasato Maru, com os primeiros japoneses, transformando-
os a partir de então no paradigma da imigração asiática no país – tendo hoje a
comunidade Nikkei mais de 1,5 milhão de pessoas no Brasil, entre japoneses e seus
descendentes.
No Brasil, como a iniciativa coolie não prosperou, a comunidade chinesa é
predominantemente urbana, com forte traço empreendedor e chegada por iniciativas
familiares. Tal situação é bastante diferente de imigrações ao Brasil que podem ser
consideradas “tuteladas”, como a italiana ou japonesa. Há marcos na história da China
que interferem na imigração chinesa para o Brasil. Se até 1950 predominavam os
chineses continentais no Brasil, entre esta data e 1980 chegaram mais taiwaneses. Após
este marco, os chineses continentais retomam a proeminência no processo. Isto nos leva
a inferir que após a Revolução Chinesa de 1949, o país se fechou, tornando mais difícil a
emigração. Neste tempo, a ilha de Taiwan era mais aberta, e muitos a deixaram pelas
tensões políticas existente entre as extremidades do estreito de Taiwan. Pelo mundo, as
comunidades chinesas se incrementaram de cultura letrada e se revitalizaram após a
Revolução de 1949, devendo-se ao fato de que pela primeira vez elites intelectuais
emigraram expressivamente da China. E o que a década de 1980 nos sinaliza? É o
momento da reforma e abertura, garantido acesso e oportunidades da população chinesa
continental para o estrangeiro.
De qualquer maneira, o processo migratório é sentido de formas diferentes de acordo
com as gerações. No caso de chineses no Brasil, muitas vezes os filhos funcionam como
mediadores e até interpretes entre os pais e a cultura do país; entre o diminuto mundo
doméstico e o amplo mundo social exterior. Filhos únicos tendem a dominar melhor o
chinês, ao passo que crianças e jovens com irmãos tendem a aprender o português mais
rapidamente. Obviamente, há choques culturais dentro da própria família. Os jovens
huayi não se conformam por terem colegas brasileiros com uma vida muito mais livre e
relaxada do que a eles – e não raro questionam os pais. Os mais velhos tendem a viver
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em enclaves, muitas vezes nunca aprendendo o português ou tendo amizades fora do
círculo chinês.
Em Mal-Estar na Civilização, Freud (1961: 114) dá conta do chamado “narcisismo das
pequenas diferenças”, em que há maiores problemas entre culturas próximas do que
entre culturas distantes. Assim, por exemplo, entre chineses e japoneses, entre povos
do Oriente Médio, ou entre portugueses e espanhóis. Muitas vezes, na terra de origem,
as pessoas vêm de civilizações que competiam por recursos, ou determinados rios ou
terras. Mais do que isto, entretanto, o estudo de processos migratórios deve levar em
conta que, entre civilizações próximas existe o medo e o perigo de ser confundido com o
outro. Ou seja, o perigo da perda da própria identidade. Em São Paulo, isto se deu com
todos estes grupos. Os chineses têm suas tensões internas e externas à colônia. Por seu
caráter fragmentado, a diáspora chinesa no Brasil muitas vezes apresenta uma maior
ligação à província de origem do que à Grande China propriamente dita. Curiosamente,
os japoneses, por serem a maior imigração asiática no Brasil, acabam por ditar a
distribuição espacial dos chineses e outros asiáticos, que acabam por gravitar em torno
destes japoneses, em princípio.
O bairro paulistano da Liberdade torna-se o ícone espacial das imigrações orientais no
Brasil. Transformado pela arquitetura japonesa, seus letreiros e lanternas, o lugar se
torna espaço de disputas narrativas em curso no Brasil. É vendido como “bairro japonês”,
mas hoje em dia poucos japoneses vivem ali. Estes já estão espalhados em outros bairros
da cidade, sendo a maioria dos orientais que lá vivem chineses. Há também alguns
coreanos. Antes da chegada dos primeiros orientais ao bairro, entretanto, ele era
essencialmente africano. A Praça da Liberdade era lugar de execução de escravizados
rebelados, e a igreja que ainda está lá ostenta o nome Igreja dos Aflitos. Era o pranto
destes aflitos que o bairro via correr. O local se torna um simulacro de Oriente na
arquitetura e comércio, onde cada vez mais artificialmente há pressão para vender a
imagem japonesa e apagar a história africana anterior. Isto é apagar uma herança que
justifica o próprio nome Liberdade. O governador do estado João Doria Jr. renomeou a
estação de metrô Liberdade para “Japão Liberdade” em 2018. O bairro tem uma feira
dominical, onde se está tentando proibir a comercialização de comidas não-orientais.
Comidas do Nordeste brasileiro, em especial. Tudo isto é o apagamento da história
pregressa do bairro. Hoje em dia há relatos de que está em vias de se criar artificialmente
uma “Chinatown” em São Paulo. Aliás, entre os entrevistados da pesquisa, uma
Chinatown no Brasil não se justifica por dois motivos:
− Não há escala para isso. Cerca de 300.000 chineses vivem no Brasil, metade dos quais
em São Paulo. Não se compara a cidades estadunidenses, australianas ou canadenses;
− Os chineses do Brasil sentem que não precisam se isolar, pois se sentem incluídos na
sociedade brasileira.
Hobsbawm (1975: 103-121) já destacara o caráter artificial e fabricado dos
nacionalismos, e como estes escamoteiam as identificações de classe. Talvez um
exercício interessante seja realmente tentar buscar identificações mais universais
baseadas no lugar ocupado nos processos produtivos.
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Estas e outras questões contemporâneas têm sido abordadas pelo canal de YouTube
chamado Yo Ban Boo, criado em 2016 por jovens brasileiros de ascendência asiática.
Aliás, mais recentemente o pesquisador voltou-se a este assunto, porque ele é a
continuação natural do processo analisado desde a pesquisa doutoral defendida em 2008.
O canal discute diversas questões sobre o que é ser asiático-brasileiro. O Brasil, apesar
de sua diversidade étnica e racial, é um país racista. Se ainda há pessoas que não se
convencem do racismo sofrido pelos descendentes de escravizados africanos, ainda mais
difícil é ilustrar a questão do racismo contra asiáticos (Veras, 2021: 291). Tsang (2018:
304), por sua vez, por meio da análise dos conteúdos de um website dirigido por chineses
no Brasil, e dedicado a este público (o BrasilCN.com), em língua chinesa, identifica pontos
abordados também por Anderson (2008). Por exemplo, identifica como a China é
construída como comunidade imaginada – e muito mais ampliada pelo capitalismo virtual
(algo que Anderson não chegou a abordar). Substancialmente mais ampla do que um
capitalismo impresso. O espaço virtual é potente criador e amplificador de comunidades
imaginadas.
Voltando à questão do racismo contra asiaticos, uma faceta singularizante que ele possui
é a questão da “minoria modelo”. Trata-se de um grupo de não-brancos que tem êxito
educacional e econômico, e que acaba desta forma servindo para justificar as piores
situações vividas pelos negros no Brasil. Ao mesmo tempo, os asiáticos são alvo de
racismo, pois a eles é negada individualidade, além de serem frequentemente
desumanizados, hostilizados e associados a estereótipos. Pouco se fala, mas na história
do continente americano os asiáticos já sofreram diversas restrições legais por conta de
sua origem e fenótipo. Após a pandemia de covid-19, a questão se exacerbou em
diversos países. Como apontado por Lesser (2001: 293-294), diferentemente de outras
identidades étnico-raciais mais aceitas como sendo brasileiras, uma identidade asiática-
brasileira tem sempre que ser negociada, ao invés de ser aceita a priori.
4. Os retornados
E a promessa de retorno? Desde 1997 a China tem atraído pessoas do mundo todo – e
muitos chineses retornam. Intrigados pelo próprio país, são agora atraídos pelas
condições de estabilidade da sociedade chinesa em vários aspectos. O ingresso de
investimentos vindos de chineses no exterior já existia há décadas, mas agora cada vez
mais chineses voltam: as chamadas haigui (海龟 – as tartarugas marinhas que voltam a
nado). Há também os chamados haidai (海带 – alga marinha), aqueles que não souberam
se adaptar ao processo e são engolidos. Os retornados são no geral conhecidos como
guiqiao (归侨). Para Ho (2015: 199), o que vai diferenciar os haigui dos haidai é o fato
de que enquanto os primeiros utilizam suas habilidades adquiridas no exterior como um
ativo para se destacar profissionalmente, para os últimos, ter passado tempo longe da
China foi um fator dificultador de retornar ao mercado chinês.
Há um fenômeno ligado à migração chinesa, que embora reflita a cultura do país, quando
reproduzido no Brasil, pode levar a problemas inesperados. Os chineses que têm filhos
no Brasil os mandam para os avós criarem na China. Isto não é diferente dos movimentos
migratórios rural-urbano internos na China. Entretanto, quando estes filhos crescem, são
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cidadãos brasileiros, e que não sabem nem a língua do país, ao mesmo tempo que a
China não sente qualquer obrigação para com eles. Os consulados brasileiros na China
tentaram contornar esta questão criando materiais que apresentam o Brasil. Por fim, há
notícia de que o governo chinês está aceitando estes jovens como cidadãos chineses.
Esta é de certa forma, uma questão de retornados. Desde 1980 a República Popular da
China não permite que cidadãos chineses tenham dupla nacionalidade, o que para a
diáspora se tornou motivo de agonia. Assim, na verdade os chineses no estrangeiro têm
que escolher entre manter a cidadania chinesa e adotar uma outra. No caso destes
jovens, portanto, também deve haver esta escolha, daí também o motivo de uma certa
tensão quando da opção.
5. Conclusões
Para além da junção de um material que documenta a presença chinesa em São Paulo
(fotos, coleta de jornais chineses, levantamento de endereços importantes), há algumas
constatações sobre o processo diaspórico chinês no Brasil. O Brasil, pelo desenvolvimento
de seu mercado, torna-se polo de atração de pessoas do mundo todo, inclusive os
chineses, a partir do fim da escravatura. Como colocado por entrevistados, o Brasil é
visto como um país “em construção”, muito mais novo do que a China. E hoje os chineses
têm um lugar na construção de uma identidade brasileira.
Em suma, forças pull e push atuam entre pessoas chinesas e o território brasileiro. Os
chineses pelo mundo constituem uma diáspora, mesmo que com múltiplas e diversas
identidades (zhongguoren; huaren / huaqiao; huayi, zhonghua da jiating, Hong Kong,
Macau; 56 etnias). Conforme pode se perceber sobre as tendências de fluxo para o Brasil,
isolamento/ abertura da China são determinantes no processo migratório.
Historicamente, o Brasil tem sido polo de atração de população. Como colônia de
exploração, o Brasil sempre aguçou a imaginação europeia, conforme relatado por Mello
e Souza (1986: 21). Leite (1999: 23), por sua vez, destaca o antigo contato Brasil-China,
há séculos promovido pelo colonizador português. Na época de substituição da mão-de-
obra escravizada, em fins do século XIX, todo e qualquer imigrante não-europeu
desafiava o ideal étnico das elites brasileiras. Concomitantemente, a iniciativa coolie no
Brasil foi frustrada à medida que as incipientes negociações tiveram pouco avanço. A
complexidade da identidade asiática no Brasil se intensifica na questão da “minoria
modelo”. Se por um lado ela é enxergada como bem-sucedida, por outro é também
vítima de racismo e estereotipação, num país em que a branquitude dá o tom das
relações raciais. O Brasil, embora atraísse povos por uma demanda de força de trabalho,
é hoje um país de emigração. Há mais de 2 milhões de brasileiros pelo mundo, um
processo iniciado na década de 1980 (a chamada “década perdida” – pela estagnação
econômica do período), sendo os Estados Unidos, Portugal, Itália e Japão destacados
destinos de brasileiros. Desde aquela época, as sucessivas crises econômicas brasileiras
levaram à falta de perspectivas de trabalho. No caso de Portugal, Itália, Japão e até
Alemanha, muitos brasileiros recorreram a estes países por eles oferecerem às
comunidades de descendentes abertura para imigrar, na maioria dos casos com
ocupações de baixa qualificação.
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Os sino-brasileiros são uma comunidade fragmentada e heterogênea, constituída em
ondas desconexas, muito dependentes de iniciativas individuais. Conforme já apontado,
nos anos de 1950 e 60 é marcada a vinda de chineses ao Brasil, especialmente
taiwaneses. A partir dos anos de 1980 aumentou a vinda de chineses continentais, que
segue. Tensões da terra de origem também migram para o Brasil. Um exemplo disso é
o mal-estar todo mês de outubro, em que chineses continentais comemoram a data
nacional dia 1, e os taiwaneses a celebram dia 10. Isto mostra a complexidade das
identidades e formações diaspóricas. Os sino-brasileiros não só transformam a sociedade
brasileira, como também são transformados por ela. Constituem, por fim, algo novo,
diferente da sociedade chinesa (adaptando sua culinária a ingredientes locais, mudando
aspectos culturais mesmo que em enclaves). Em diferentes graus, de acordo com a
geração, preservam traços da antiga cultura chinesa, artes, ciência, guanxi. E por fim,
têm sempre a perspectiva do retorno; seja o retorno físico como haigui, seja o retorno
por remessas de dinheiro para a terra natal, ou então como investimentos na China, ou
por fim na criação de uma grande comunidade imaginada nas artes, literatura, religião,
ou no ciberespaço.
6. Imagens
Imagem 1: Hospedaria dos Imigrantes. São Paulo. Recebeu mais de 3 milhões de trabalhadores
de todo o mundo, de 1888 aos anos de 1970. São Paulo, com o capital acumulado com a economia
cafeeira, investiu na industrialização no século XX, tornando-se mercado aquecido e atraente para
mão-de-obra do mundo todo.
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 118)
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Imagem 2: As caricaturas da época retratam os debates marcados por racismo e preconceito sobre
a possibilidade de se trazerem trabalhadores chineses. No Brasil a iniciativa coolie não foi levada
adiante.
Fonte: Litografia de Angelo Agostini in Vida Fluminense -1871, reproduzido por Leite (1999: 115)
Imagem 3: O Templo Zulai, no município de Cotia, estado de São Paulo. Iniciativa da comunidade
chinesa do Brasil, é o maior templo budista da América Latina.
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 220)
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Imagem 4: O bairro paulistano da Liberdade. Palco de disputas narrativas na cidade. Um simulacro
de Oriente e tentativa de apagamento da história africana no bairro
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 180)
Imagens 5, 6 e 7: Comemorações de Ano Novo Chinês no bairro da Liberdade. O evento atrai
multidão de entusiastas, descendentes de chinês ou não
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 189-190).
Imagens 8 e 9: Escola taiwanesa no bairro da Vila Mariana, cidade de São Paulo. Escolas locais
preservam as tradições da região de origem. Aqui, celebração do Ano Novo Chinês
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 223)
Imagem 10: Colégio Sidarta, no município de Cotia, estado de São Paulo. O primeiro colégio do
Brasil a incluir em sua grade curricular o idioma chinês.
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Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 224)
Imagem 11: Vendedor de chaofan (arroz frito) em van do bairro das Perdizes, cidade de São Paulo
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 208)
Imagem 12: publicações em língua chinesa produzidas na cidade de São Paulo, tendo como alvo a
comunidade chinesa de huaren e huayi
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 222)
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Imagem 13: a Rua 25 de Março, em São Paulo. Importante ponto varejista que concentra
comerciantes chineses, sobretudo na área de eletrônicos
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 170)
Imagem 14: a Missão Católica Chinesa, situada à Vila Olímpia, cidade de São Paulo. Sob a liderança
do veterano Padre Pedro, ponto de encontro de chineses, religiosos ou não, de diferentes províncias
de origem. Ademais, uma instituição que sempre ajudou muitos chineses recém-chegados, sem
casa, sem conhecidos e sem falar português
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2006 (Veras, 2008: 216).
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Imagens 15, 16 e 17: Material concebido pelo autor brasileiro Maurício de Sousa para o público de
jovens chineses nascidos no Brasil, mas que não conhecem nada do país sul-americano, pois foram
criados na China. O material é fornecido pelos consulados brasileiros em Shanghai e Guangzhou
para estes jovens que, de início têm cidadania brasileira.
Foto: Daniel Veras, 2015.
7. Bibliografia
Páginas asiático-brasileiras no Facebook
Teacher Liao Si’s page, disponível em
https://www.facebook.com/groups/professoradechines/
Estudos Asiático-Brasileiros, disponível em
https://www.facebook.com/groups/540209652761976/
Filosofia Taoísta, de Chiu Yi Chih, disponível em
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1882281848653533/
Instituto Confúcio no Brasil, disponível em
https://www.facebook.com/groups/mandarim.brasil/
Perigo Amarelo, análise, disponível em https://www.facebook.com/perigoamarelo/
Coletivo Oriente-se (de atores asiático-brasileiros), disponível em
https://www.facebook.com/coletivoorientese/
Centro Chinês (Rio), disponível em https://www.facebook.com/centro.chines/
Asiáticos pela Diversidade (Comunidade LGBT asiática), disponível em
https://www.facebook.com/asiaticosdiversidade/
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Canais no Youtube por asiático-brasileiros
Yo Ban Boo, disponível em
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmPMXwu814q8lDOd_OTx26Q
Bro Capitalista, de Christian Jao Haksabatugi, disponível
emhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCksNHNRPJMK7xRBjq6nqDTQ
Pula Muralha, Liao Si e Lucas Brand, disponível em
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6qjUYfE_cG4PHWVs9MMBlA
Chinesa Brazuka, de Yolanda, disponível em
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMCMTLrqJDqkQuLdauYVAdg
Chiu Yi Chih, Filósofo taoísta nascido em Taiwan, disponível em
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCavBAhXBxEMsvD_8uSUqpvA
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Agamben, Giorgio (2004). Homo Sacer: O poder soberano e a vida nua I. Belo Horizonte:
UFMG.
Anderson, Benedict (2008). Comunidades Imaginadas: Reflexões sobre a origem e a
difusão do nacionalismo. São Paulo: Companhia das Letras.
Bhabha, Homi K. (2003). O Local da Cultura. Belo Horizonte: UFMG.
Freud, Sigmund (1961). Civilization and Its Discontents. Londres: The Hogarth Press.
Gellner, Ernest (1983). Nations and Nationalism. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL13 N2, TD1
Thematic dossier
Perspectives on China’s international presence
December 2022
38
THE IMPACT OF CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS ON GLOBAL ORDER
BHAWNA POKHARNA
bhawnap@rediffmail.com
Associate Professor of Political Science at Government Meera Girls College Udaipur Rajasthan
(India). She has done her Graduation and Post Graduation from Mohan Lal Sukhadia University
Udaipur. She was awarded Gold Medal in Post Graduation. She was Awarded Ph D on India -
China Relations. She has 25 years of teaching and research experience. She has Published widely
in various journals of repute and has presented papers in seminars and Conferences. Two
scholars have been awarded Ph D under her supervision and five are registered at present.
Abstract
Chinese assertiveness has increased considerably in the international arena, with enhanced
Chinese influence in all spheres. China has become a political, economic, and military power,
flexing its muscles in the international politics. China’s rise has affected the existing liberal
global order and caused the advent of a new cold war. China, being a staunch communist
regime is presenting a challenge to the liberal international order. Thus, the present paper
attempts to explore how Chinese assertiveness has affected the global order.
Keywords
China’s Rise; Liberal International Order; Chinese Assertiveness; New Cold War; Wolf Warrior
Diplomacy
Resumo
A assertividade chinesa aumentou consideravelmente na arena internacional, com uma maior
influência chinesa em todas as esferas. A China tornou-se uma potência política, económica,
e militar, flexionando os seus músculos na política internacional. A ascensão da China afetou
a ordem global liberal existente e provocou o advento de uma nova guerra fria. A China, sendo
um regime comunista convicto, apresenta um desafio à ordem internacional liberal. Assim, o
presente documento tenta explorar como a assertividade chinesa tem afetado a ordem global.
Palavras-chave
Ascensão da China; Ordem Internacional Liberal; Assertividade Chinesa; Nova Guerra Fria;
Diplomacia Wolf Warrior
How to cite this article
Pokharna, Bhawna (2022). The impact of chinese assertiveness on global order. Janus.net, e-
journal of international relations. VOL13 N2, TD1 - Thematic dossier “Perspectives on China's
International Presence: Strategies, Processes and Challenges”, December 2022. Consulted
[online] on date of the last view, https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT22.3
Article received on June 13, 2022 and accepted on April 7, 2002
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The impact of Chinese assertiveness on global order
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39
THE IMPACT OF CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS ON GLOBAL ORDER
BHAWNA POKHARNA
Introduction
The paper attempts to shed light on the impact of China’s rise in the international arena.
China has made remarkable progress since the Communist Revolution, which took place
in the year 1949. Internal reform programmes such as the Great Leap Forward, the
Second Revolution, the Four Modernizations, and the China Dream all resulted in China's
development in all spheres of statecraft. Belt and Road Initiative has augmented Chinese
outreach across the globe and transformed it into a global player. China's transition to a
market-oriented economy while remaining an ardent Communist regime politically is a
distinctive feature of blended government. Fruits of economic liberalisation were reaped
in the form of China's moving fast on the path of becoming a superpower of the 21st
century. Simultaneously, China’s military advancement with modernised weapons and a
well-developed military system and progress in other fields has taken it far ahead of
other countries. Chinese confidence is evident in its dealings in the international arena,
where it strives to take things in its stride, thus posing a challenge to the existing
international order. The paper endeavours to apply the analytical approach and the
theory of liberalisation to make the study rigorous.
The rise of China in the 21st century is a great phenomenon which has changed geo-
strategic equations and the course of global order. The increasing power of China has
enhanced its assertiveness in the global arena, which seems to be a threat to the existing
liberal international order. The paper focuses on recent developments that are taking
place, especially during the pandemic era, which pose a challenge to the existing
international order. China boasts of becoming a superpower with substantial economic
growth, military modernization, a strong political system, and farsighted leadership in
the international arena. The irresponsible, impetuous, and rash behaviour of China during
the COVID-19 global pandemic has again raised questions about the future of liberal
world order. A New World Order with China as its major player is definitely not safe and
secure. Since Xi Jinping became President, China has been moving fast to become a
superpower for a host of reasons. Xi’s vision of China Dream, the Belt and Road Initiative,
his tough stance on various international issues, his hegemonic attitude toward
neighbours, and the overall progress of the Chinese nation. The Belt and Road Initiative
has unfolded Chinese global ambitions and pushed its outreach tremendously. Now China
discards the existing Liberal International Order dominated by western powers and ups
the ante to become a major player in the international arena.
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China Dream
China Dream is a concept proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping that reflects his vision
for his country and its people, which is to make it enormously strong by regaining the
Chinese nation's lost glory. Xi’s early days of hardship shaped him as a more confident
and powerful leader and helped him to develop his own vision of his country and its
people, which was manifested in his decisions and actions after he became President.
President XI promulgated his vision of the Chinese Dream, which means a "great
rejuvenation of the Chinese nation". He aspires to modernise China with more economic
development, military advancement, and political reforms. The vision seeks a judicious
combination of power and prosperity to enable 1.4 billion Chinese to become rich, to
become powerful and to be respected. (Allison, 2017).
Xi’s war against corruption during the initial years of his presidency consolidated his grip
on power. His massive communist party restructuring programme and attempt to connect
it with the masses won him applause and further consolidated his position. As a mark of
Mr. Xi's influence, the Chinese Communist Party voted in favour of writing his philosophy,
called "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era,"
into its constitution. Prior to Xi, Mao, who led the communist revolution in 1949, and
Deng Xiaoping, who implemented economic reforms in the 1980s, had established it as
a significant fundamental law of the land. (BBC, 2021: May 12th) As Maoism was the
post-revolutionary ideology of communist China, nationalism is now a core ideology in
China. Xi’s consolidation of power and his nationalistic rhetoric established him as a
paramount leader. His crackdown on corruption, suppression of freedom of the press and
dissidents, and his hold on power made him the most authoritarian leader since Chairman
Mao. Xi was also instrumental in amending the Chinese constitution to end the
compulsion of a maximum of two terms for the president, which was supposed to be a
chance for President Xi to remain in power for an indefinite term (Susan Shirk, 2018).
All these developments contributed to securing his position as paramount leader.
Moreover, his hardline attitude towards Taiwan, Hong Kong, in the South China Sea, with
Southeast Asian neighbours, with India, Japan, and the USA, indicates Chinese
assertiveness in the international arena.
The Belt and Road Initiative
The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative is the signature project of Xi Jinping aimed at
establishing China as a superpower of the 21st century. The project intends to augment
trade and cooperation by connecting different continents of the globe. The project is an
attempt to resuscitate the legacy of the ancient Silk Road stretching from Asia to Europe,
which got its name from the silk that was carried along it. The project is taking shape
with various connectivity and logistic projects being built at various places across the
globe. The BRI has myriad objectives, such as infusing strong impetus to enhance
political mutual trust; deepening economic cooperation; promoting people-to-people
contact; and increasing cultural exchanges among relevant countries. These objectives
are to be achieved through joint cooperation, common development, and regional
integration. All countries along the Maritime Silk Road have appreciated the plan and aim
to develop and benefit together from the project.
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The widespread network of trade routes developed as part of the initiative will link China
to many established and developing markets, creating considerable opportunities for
Chinese industries. The PRC believes that opening up trade to new markets in this way
will sustain the country’s economic growth long into the future while also raising living
standards for a large portion of the Chinese people. The project aims to divert Chinese
manufacturing overcapacity to other markets in the world. The project is also an attempt
to rectify economic inequality among the different regions of China itself.
The 19th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China, which was held in 2017, has
also approved the project (PWC, 2017), which has multiple aims to enhance China’s
international stature and also to boost domestic industries. The project seems important
also in the manner of re-establishing the credibility and legitimacy of the Communist
party by creating a situation of economic affluence in the country. The project involves
the global ambitions of China as it would augment its influence considerably and
contribute to making it a new superpower of the 21st century. The project connects 4.4
billion people, or roughly 66 percent of the global population of more than 65 countries,
with a GDP of $29 trillion. The gargantuan project would significantly enhance Chinese
outreach across the globe while giving it ample opportunities to meddle in global affairs.
The Chinese presence in every nook and corner is a giant step for China, which is very
much in consonance with its grand strategy to become a superpower.
Wolf Warrior Diplomacy
China has always been an aggressive country, but its "wolf warrior" diplomacy became
prominent during the pandemic period. It denotes the aggressive posture and non-
leaning down attitude of Chinese diplomats. Chinese envoys are getting loudmouthed in
their speeches and tweets, and adopting an aggressive posture by which Chinese
authorities have to protect their national interests. It also suggests the chauvinistic
attitude of China and a sense of contentment where there is no need to maintain friendly
ties with other countries. The nomenclature has been taken from the Chinese movie Wolf
Warrior II, released in 2017, having the patriotic slogan "Whoever offends the Chinese
will be wiped out, no matter how far away". The term has been described by different
scholars characterising Chinese foreign policy, such as “the new mixture of confidence
and increasing insecurity combined” (Peter Martin, 2020), “assertive, proactive, and
high-profile” (Zhiqun, 2021), "confrontational and combative" (Jiang and Westcott,
2021), “Major Country Diplomacy” (Smith, 2021), “Cyber-Nationalism” (Sullivan and
Weixiang,2022) etc.
Chinese leaders and officials staunchly believe that their belligerent attitude and
aggressive posture are necessary to defend China’s national pride and self-respect, and
it is also supposed to be a response to baseless targeting by the western powers. China’s
former envoy to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, proclaimed this changed Chinese attitude as a
need of the hour and said, "Where there is a ‘wolf’, there is a warrior." (Kewalramani,
2020). Chinese national interest diplomats seek to defend Chinese national interests in
a confrontational way. It is a sort of justified defence against the west, which is
determined to contain it. Wolf warrior diplomacy is manifested in Chinese actions while
dealing with its neighbours and other countries. Hua Chunying and Zhao Lijian, the
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Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespersons, took to Twitter to defend Chinese policies during
the COVID-19 outbreak. Zhao replied in a tweet in March 2020 that "if someone claims
that China’s exports are toxic, then stop wearing China-made masks and protective
gowns." He said in another tweet that "It might be (the) US army who brought the
epidemic to Wuhan." (Zhiqun Zhu, 2021).
In the early 2020s, at the time of the massive outbreak of the covid pandemic from
Wuhan, the world condemned China for playing a dubious role, which resulted in
spreading the crisis. The Chinese behaviour reflected a rash and berserk attitude which
culminated in the severance of ties with many countries. For instance, in April 2020, a
Chinese coastguard ship sank a Vietnamese fishing trawler near the Paracel Islands, and
when Vietnam objected, the Chinese foreign ministry responded by saying Vietnam’s
claims to the area are "illegal." (Zhiqun Zhu, 2021) China has shown acute fierceness in
its relations with Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, USA, Australia, India, USA, Japan,
Russia, etc.
Hong Kong
China’s violation of the "one country and two systems" principle and human rights abuses
are doing much harm to the people and their freedom in Hong Kong. China introduced a
new security law in the year 2020 to curb the freedom of the press in Hong Kong. The
National Security Law, which identifies four types of activities such as terrorism,
secession, subversion, and collusion with "foreign forces" as punishable, carries a
maximum sentence of life in prison. Article 35 of this law says that anybody convicted of
crimes under the law will be deprived of the right to run for public office for life. (Human
Rights Watch, 2021). The law discards Hong Kong’s Basic Law and also disregards the
International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights. The authorities’ crackdown on Apple
Daily, which resulted in its closure, suggests the brutality of the law. (HRW, 2021). At
the G-7 Summit in 2021, the leaders called for the restoration of political institutions in
Hong Kong and to end the unwarranted suppression of those who promote democratic
values, rights, and freedoms in Hong Kong. (The Guardian, 2021: March 13th).
China has introduced myriad laws to curb freedom of speech and democracy in Hong
Kong since taking over the island territory in the year 1997. In the year 2003, the Hong
Kong government introduced national security legislation to prevent treason, sedition,
subversion, and secession against the Chinese government. In 2012, it amended Hong
Kong school curricula to promote Chinese identity. In 2014, Beijing proposed universal
suffrage to vote for the chief executive of the city, but the candidate should be from the
short list of China. In 2019, China proposed an Extradition Law which could have allowed
extradition to the Chinese mainland for prosecution. This saw a massive protest for
months by the people of Hong Kong and caught international attention as well. Finally,
the Chinese government caved in to enormous pressure and withdrew this legislation.
(Maizland, 2022).
Thereafter, China put forward Security Law 2020, which also had repercussions in the
form of massive protests by the people of Hong Kong. It also evoked international
reactions wherein the USA, Canada, Britain, and the EU have imposed numerous
sanctions against China. But China, unmoved by all these developments, created the
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Greater Bay Area Project, which is again an ambitious project to connect Hong Kong with
the cities of Guangdong province in China. (Dezen Shira, 2019) It is going to enhance
the economic viability of Hong Kong, but at the same time it jeopardises hope for
democracy. After evaluating developments of the last few years, it can be concluded that
the future does not augur well for Hong Kong and the democratic aspirations of the people
are heading towards unnatural death.
Taiwan
For China, Taiwan is a separate province, while Taiwan claims to be an independent state,
and this is the reason behind the long-pending animosity between China and Taiwan.
China evolved the "One China Policy" and compelled the international community to stick
to this. In fact, China has established this principle to be an important part of its bilateral
relations with other countries. During the reign of the Trump administration, the USA has
supported Taiwan, and present President Biden has assured Taiwan that its commitment
to Taiwan’s security is rock solid. For a long time, the USA has adopted a strategically
ambiguous policy of supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But with recent
Chinese intrusions into Taiwanese territory and in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war,
the US has maintained a proactive approach towards safeguarding Taiwan’s security
against any possible Chinese aggression.
After the communist revolution in China in 1949, KMT leaders took control of Formosa
(present Taiwan, Republic of China) and ran the government from there. When PRC got
recognition from the world community, ROC’s place was taken over by PRC in various
international organisations like UNO and others. Their bilateral relations were marked by
tension and instability during those days, coupled with minor conflicts between the two
countries. Taiwan too remained under marshal rule from 1949-87, and after that,
democracy returned to the island. China and Taiwan have reached an understanding
known as the 1992 consensus regarding the conduction of bilateral relations. Both
countries agreed to the principle of "One China", although both have different
interpretations of that. Thus, they failed to stick to the content of this consensus, which
also lacked clarity on the legal status of Taiwan. As the DPP came into power in Taiwan
in 2016, it did not endorse the 1992 consensus reached between China and Taiwan.
(Maizland, 2022) Tsai, the President of Taiwan, during her opening presidential address
in 2016 stated that she was an elected President as per the provisions of the ROC’s
constitution and that would be the only source of conducting bilateral relations with
China. The statement was blatantly rejected by Beijing, and it severed the official ties
with Taiwan. (Maizland,2022) In the year 2019, President Xi reiterated Chinese policy for
Taiwan to be incorporated into mainland China under the system of "one country, two
systems", the same formula adopted for Hong Kong. Both the major parties in Taiwan,
the DPP and the KMT, rejected the proposal in the wake of the crackdown on Hong Kong‘s
freedom. (Maizland,2022)
In recent times, China has held naval exercises involving an aircraft carrier group near
Taiwan. Beijing has also sent aircraft into Taiwan's air defence identification zone on
numerous occasions. Taiwan spotted 38 Chinese aircraft entering its Air Defence Zone
on November 28th, 2021, creating tensions in the region. (Blanchard, 2021). Taiwan has
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accused China of militarily harassing it and warned of countermeasures to be taken if
Chinese aircraft move close to Taiwanese territories. This type of incidences is taking
place on the regular basis keeping the security of the region under much pressure.
The South China Sea
China is a major player in the South China Sea and, due to its size and location, it has
natural geostrategic advantages in the region. Powerful and fearless, China has been
actively engaged in consolidating its position in the South China Sea for a long time. The
Chinese display of hegemonic attitude creates uproar and a war-like situation in the
South China Sea, which is problematic for the region's countries. China claims more than
80% of the South China Sea, and this claim is based on a U-shaped nine-dash line etched
on a map. China has disputes with countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia,
Brunei, etc. in the South China Sea. A diplomatic clash between the Philippines and China
continued recently as the Chinese presence near the Manila claimed area in the South
China Sea. Philippine officials demanded the flotilla's withdrawal, although President of
the Philippines Duterte reiterated his desire to resolve the issue peacefully. Apparent by
the ICJ ruling of 2016, wherein China rejected the International Court’s decision, which
had given a verdict in favour of the Philippines in South China in a territorial dispute
between China and Philippines. (Ankit Panda, 2016)
India-China Stand-off
India and China also have a long history of animosity between their bilateral relations. A
recent India-China standoff took place in Ladakh in June 2020 on the Line of Actual
Control (LAC). The violent brawl of June 1st, 2020, killed 20 Indian soldiers and strained
bilateral relations vehemently. Such a violent incident took place after so many years.
The situation is still worrisome in Ladakh where China is repeatedly intruding into Indian
territory and reports of China's moving forward in Arunachal Pradesh, on the eastern
border of India, where new villages have been set up near the border, are affecting
bilateral relations.
Dispute with Japan over Senkaku Islands
China and Japan have a territorial dispute over Senkaku island, and they have had so
many clashes over this. Recently, China intruded into the waters off the Senkaku Islands
for 157 consecutive days (Davidson, 2021). The islands in the East China Sea are
presently controlled by Japan but claimed by China, and Chinese vessels intruded into
Japan’s "contiguous zone" almost daily in April 2021. The contiguous zone is usually used
to be the area beyond the territorial sea and which extends up to 24 nautical miles from
the baseline that a country claims. The presence of the Chinese vessels on the island is
an act of provocation. Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi asked for US, European
and world support to stop Chinese expansionism. He warned that "China is strengthening
its military power both in terms of quantity and quality, and rapidly improving its
operational capability." (Davidson, 2021).
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The China-US Rivalry
China-US differences are evident in the last few years, particularly in the aftermath of
China's resurgence in the 21st century as it became a political, economic, and military
power. China is posing a challenge to US supremacy in the international arena. During
the regime of the Trump administration, the trade war between two countries reached
its worst. The US-China trade war has taken the form of a cold war. The current Joe
Biden administration is committed to maintaining and strengthening the rules-based
international order. The US Secretary of State noted that China's actions in Xinjiang,
Hong Kong, and Taiwan have endangered the peace of the region and challenged global
stability. China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, criticised the US stand and reaffirmed Chinese
faith in international order based on UN principles and international law and disregarded
the dominance of the western world’s rules-based international order. (Nikki Asia, 2021).
Chinese Concept of International Order
The present world order was framed in the aftermath of World War II with the
establishment of United Nations embedding the spirit of Atlantic Charter of 1941. It
embraced the values of liberal democracy – the rule of law, individual freedom, religious
liberty, free enterprise, free trade, majority rule with minority rules combining the efforts
of Churchill et al. This world order has myriad synonyms such as Rules Based Democratic
Order, Liberal International Order and Free World Order etc. (Dowd, 2021). The system
is still prevailing but facing immense challenge with the rise of China in the 21st century.
With enormous economic power, military modernization, progress made in science and
technology, and subsequent development in all walks of life, China is heading towards
the path of becoming a superpower. The unique combination of communist
authoritarianism and economic liberalisation increased China's global presence
significantly, while making it difficult for international powers to deal with it. Its enormous
power, coupled with the aggressive postures of leaders, led it to follow its own course in
international relations. China is a member of the United Nations and a signatory of all
the important international conventions where it is supposed to obey and respect them.
But Chinese actions reflect its hegemonic attitude, which is guided by its deep-rooted
national interests, entrenched with Chinese nationalist sentiments to act in the global
order on its own terms. China wishes to establish new international relations based on
Chinese characteristics and rejects the western world led Liberal International Order.
China’s rise is the most important political and economic phenomenon of the twenty-first
century. It has consequences for "global security" (Toje 2018), for "global governance"
(Beeson and Li 2016; Economy 2018), for "human rights" (Gamso 2019), for
"international development" (Gallagher and Porzecanski 2010, Lin 2018) etc. While
China’s power in international trade is par excellence, it is also growing by other
measures of international power. (Grosse 2018) China’s growing clout in international
production and financial markets is evident in terms of its global manufacturing
leadership, stewardship in the assembling of electronics and textiles, and in financial
leadership through owning the world’s four largest banks. China is also growing in global
leadership through the development of new institutions such as the recently signed
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Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank (AIIB), and the landmark Belt and Road initiative (Soong 2018).
In the history of international politics, different scholars have had different opinions
regarding international order. It is construed as "international society", "a group of states
obeying a set of common rules" (Hedley Bull, 1977), "a systematised group of
international institutions" (Mearsheimer, 2019), that all world orders rest on a "set of
generally accepted rules" (Henry Kissinger, 2015: 1), and a U.S.-led "liberal" order with
an emphasis on "rules-based character". (Ikenberry, 2009). Andrew Moravcsik’s liberal
theory of international relations focuses on the social groups that shape government
officials’ orientations and incentives who decide a state’s "fundamental" foreign policy
preferences. (1997) Now the United States and China are competing to shape the
foundation of global system—the essential ideas, habits, and expectations that govern
international politics. It has given rise to a new competition, which, according to noted
scholar Michael Mazarr, "It is a competition based on narratives, norms, and legitimacy."
(2020).
China believes in the Westphalian conception of order with state sovereignty and non-
interference as the paramount principles, while undermining the liberal notions of
individual rights. This vision cannot be said as less "rules-based" than the United States’,
in so far as it has faith in the United Nations Charter. It also includes many current forms
of international cooperation, including extensive trade, investment, and collaboration on
vital transnational issues such as climate change. China is also a staunch supporter of
multilateralism, although its actual behaviour sometimes violates existing multilateral
norms. Nonetheless, the Chinese world order is significantly different from the order
where US influence prevailed (Walt, 2021). China also sticks to core interests of "national
unity," "reunification’ and "independence" (Swaine 2011).
During the Political Bureau study session of the Communist Party of China on global
governance, which was held on October 12th, 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared
that the fundamental purpose of China’s participation in global governance is to serve
the accomplishment of the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese
nation. Xi said, "The rise of developing countries has brought revolutionary changes to
the world order. For centuries, powerful countries divided the world and competed for
profit and power through war and colonization, but that has been replaced in today's
world by rules and mechanisms to balance different interests," he said. (Xinhua, 2015,
October 14th) He also advocated democratic and law-based rules to guide global
governance so that the global governance system represents the will and interests of a
majority of countries in a more balanced manner. (Xinhua, 2015: October 14th)
The Chinese scholar Zhao Suisheng has argued, China is discontent with the current
international order because it is dominated by western values and norms. (2017) As a
result, China only believes in UN-based international order and advocates that "there is
only one system in the world, and that is the international system with the United Nations
at its center. "There is only one set of rules that are the basic norms of international
relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. There is only one order,
and that is the international order based on international law. " (Minghao, 2020).
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The ambiguity in Chinese words and actions is ostensible in Chinese behavior, which
many observers regard as an increasingly powerful China’s approach to the post–World
War II international order. What does China require to achieve its announced goal of
revitalization? What does China’s revitalization mean for the international order?
President Xi has initiated a grand vision for the PRC—the "China Dream"—which has
"Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese People" at its core and in which China would achieve
the desired goals of a moderately well-off society by 2021 on the occasion of the 100th
anniversary of the formation of the CCP and the status of a fully developed nation by
2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC.
But the Chinese policies highlight the difference in preaching and practice. Major features
of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule include: rule by law rather than rule of law;
prioritisation of the state over the individual; disrespect for people's rights and freedom;
distrust of civil society and NGO’s activities; and unwillingness to tolerate individual
differences and identities. (Weiss and Wallace, 2021). China opposes liberal
internationalism associated with the "freedom agenda," promoting democratisation and
a global standard of human rights. As a result, the CCP's interests clash with the more
demanding principle of Liberal International Order. As regarding liberal institutionalism
and governance via principled multilateralism, China does not have a good record of
working within some institutions to advance its interests, like the IMF, the World Bank,
WTO, and UNSC, while flouting others, such as the rejection of the International Tribunal
for the Law of the Sea ruling on the South China Sea. (Weiss and Wallace, 2021).
An interesting study was done among the youth of various Asian countries to elicit their
opinion regarding China’s rise in the world. The survey concluded that the youth of Asian
countries believe that China's rise will definitely challenge the global order and that China
will not maintain peaceful relations with other Asian countries. It suggests that China has
not convinced the world about its peaceful rise. (Zhai, 2018).
The recent actions of China in Afghanistan and Iran suggest that it is now ready to accept
the tasks of a superpower. China wishes to challenge the USA in the present global order
on equal footing and behaving like a major player in the global arena.
China-Iran Agreement
China and Iran signed a 25-year deal in March 2021. (Figueroa, 2022) The deal was
proposed to be signed during Xi Jinping’s visit to Tehran in 2016, but the situation
prevailing at that time was not conducive to it. With the signing of the Iran nuclear deal
in 2015, sanctions were lifted against it by the western world, preventing China from
formally signing an agreement with Iran. The United States withdrew from the Iran
Nuclear Deal in the year 2018 on the pretext of Iran not following the nuclear deal
genuinely and imposed sanctions against Iran. That allowed Beijing to accelerate the
process of the China-Iran deal.
Iran has also joined the BRI project and it has myriad objectives for the same, such as
enhancing its development and IT infrastructure plan while becoming part of BRI.
First, it would improve Iran’s economic prospects.
Second, it would help to minimise its isolation in the international arena.
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Third, the project has the potential to give Iran an edge over its rival Saudi Arabia.
Fourthly, the deal also enhances scope for China-Iran military cooperation, and this could
be a potential area for growth.
Iran has welcomed BRI since its launch in 2013; the project was seen as an opportunity
to connect with the world market through an extensive and ambitious set of land and
maritime trade routes. The project gives Iran a prominent place in China's global plan in
the new international order. Central Asia has three access points to global markets: to
the east via China, to the south via Iran, and to the west via Russia. So, China-Iran
cooperation gives an impetus to the project. The first cargo rail from China reached Iran
via the Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Iran rail link in the year 2016, and that was construed
to be a milestone in the direction of accomplishing the targets of the BRI project (Reuters,
2016: February 16th).
China and Iran signed an agreement on military cooperation in the year 2014 and they
also signed a deal to jointly combat terrorism in 2016. The two countries also signed an
agreement to expand trade to dollar 600 billion over 10 years period which constitutes
an important part of 25 years agreement. Iran’s differences with USA brought it closer
to China and to develop strong ties with Russia and China. Iran and China have similar
views on the international order and US hegemony and both want to end US dominance
in the international arena.
Chinese Overtures in Afghanistan
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent control of power by the Taliban
gave an opportunity to China in a changed geo-strategic scenario. China endeavoured to
fill a void in Afghanistan. It became the first country to give recognition to the Taliban
regime, followed by a visit of Chinese leaders to Afghanistan. The Chinese foreign
ministry spokesman said, "China and the Afghan Taliban have unobstructed and effective
communication and discussion." (Wang Wenbin 2021). During the US presence in
Afghanistan, China was not an active player; rather, it observed qualms in the region.
But with the withdrawal of US forces, China is ready to assert itself in Afghanistan. (Zhou
Bo, 2021) China has also pledged to extend $31 million in aid to Afghanistan for food
and vaccines (BBC, 2021: September 9th).
Chinese Economic Interests in Afghanistan
Afghanistan is also rich in several other resources, such as uranium, coal, gold, oil, zinc,
gemstones, talc, iron ore, lead, sulphur, bauxite, rare earths, chromium, copper, natural
gas, travertine, gypsum, and marble. It also has the largest reserve of lithium, a much-
wanted natural resource by China which is used as the key ingredient of the large-
capacity lithium-ion batteries that are widely used in the renewable energy industry and
electric vehicles. China is also eyeing investing in infrastructure and industry projects in
Afghanistan. Moreover China also wishes to enhance its BRI Project to Afghanistan, from
Peshawar to Kabul, then to middle east would be very convenient for China to make its
reach in West Asian and European markets.
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Chinese Concern in Afghanistan
It is not that China is not aware of the threat of the possible spread of terrorist activities
in Xinjiang. To some extent, Xinjiang’s security and stability are the starting point for
China’s Afghanistan policy (Zhao Huasheng, 2021). Terrorists are present in Afghanistan
who are manoeuvring to establish an Islamic state in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, a
serious threat to China. Turkistan Islamic Movements has nexus with Al Qaeda, Tawhid
Wal-Jihad, and Jamaat al- Jamaat Ansarullah of Afghanistan, a very dangerous
preposition for China. Khorasan group of Islamic State, known as IS-K, has also
threatened to attack China.
Nevertheless, China is moving forward in Afghanistan with a renewed hope of
strengthening its geo strategic position. Afghanistan is considered a graveyard for
conquerors—Alexander the Great, the British Empire, the Soviet Union and now the
United States. But now China enters—armed not with bombs but with construction
blueprints, and a chance to prove the curse can be broken. (Zhou Bo, 2021)
Is it the Rise of a New Cold War?
Two big powers with different ideologies, belief systems, and conflicting interests will
lead to a path of cold war. The present international scenario suggests that a new cold
war is emerging with the rise of China in international affairs. Both the USA and China
are making new equations to keep the balance of power in their favour. The USA has
come up with the signing of AUKUS, the Build Back Better World Initiative and the
strengthening of QUAD, reaffirming once again the importance of multilateralism. With
China’s recent hypersonic missile testing, there is a fear of an increase in the arms race,
a phenomenon that was missing after the end of the cold war in 1990.
The USA, UK, and Australia signed a pact last year known as AUKUS, which would help
Australia acquire technology to deploy nuclear-powered submarines and sharing of
intelligence. This is construed to be a response to increasing Chinese militarization and
influence in the region, particularly in the strategically important South China Sea. The
alliance has also angered France, after Australia backed out of a $ 37 billion submarine
deal with Paris in favour of AUKUS. On the other hand, China has said the AUKUS plan
risks severely damaging regional peace and stability. Russia has also expressed its
unhappiness over the deal as it would undermine efforts in the direction of nuclear non-
proliferation. (Rozanna, 2021)
The Quad is a quadrilateral group of India, the USA, Japan, and Australia. The cardinal
objective of the Quad is to prepare the ground for an open, free, prosperous, and
inclusive Indo-Pacific region. The Quad also has another important objective to ensure
the strategic sea routes in the Indo-Pacific are free of any political or military influence.
The group ostensibly aims to curtail Chinese dominance. Thus, the core objective of the
Quad is to secure a rule-based global order, freedom of navigation, and a liberal trading
system. The coalition also aims to offer alternative financial support for nations in the
Indo-Pacific region and ensure a free supply chain for different goods.
The first virtual summit of QUAD took place in March 2021, and the first offline/physical
summit took place in September 2021 in the USA, where leaders of the partners took
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part in the meeting and reaffirmed their commitment to strengthen their ties in the wake
of the changing global scenario. They urged multilateral cooperation in all fields and
criticised terrorist proxies in South Asia. A recent summit meeting of QUAD countries was
held in Japan in May 2022, wherein member countries discussed issues pertaining to
global order in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Chinese dominance. They
expressed their commitment to augment cooperation to face the challenges of emerging
trends of global order
Conclusion
China’s rise in the international arena has changed the geo-strategic equations and posed
a challenge to the existing liberal international order. A typical communist regime with a
flourishing market-oriented economy, China has a dismal human rights record and a
dislike for political rights and freedom of the people. China is ready to take on the role of
a superpower owing to its military, technological, political, and economic power and
capabilities. It is striving hard to surpass the USA to become the world’s largest economy
in the near future. The gargantuan Belt and Road initiative is all set to enhance Chinese
presence and influence across the globe and poses a challenge to US dominance. It
possesses the military-technological-industrial assets to thwart the values of the Liberal
International Order. The pandemic era has witnessed the peculiar aggressive features in
Chinese foreign policy known as "wolf warrior diplomacy" in its interactions with
neighbours and other countries. Xi’s statement "We make no promise to abandon the
use of force" while dealing with Taiwan and Hong Kong suggests an autocratic
characteristic of Chinese leadership. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Iran
Nuclear Agreement (JCPA) has given an opportunity to China to fill the void and establish
its foothold in these countries. Chinese assertiveness in the global arena suggests the
beginning of a new cold war with US-China rivalry dominating the present order. Both
the power blocs are now manoeuvring hard to strengthen their positions. To gain an
advantage over its rival, China is relying on BRI, economic power, military modernization,
hypersonic missile advancement, and space research; whereas the United States is
relying on QUAD, Build Back Better World, AUKUS, and NATO etc.
An increase in Chinese power has allowed it to strive to establish an international order
based on UN principles, but looking at Chinese behaviour since the communist revolution
in 1949, it seems these principles are meant for preaching and not for practice. Being a
communist country, China’s rise in international relations does not augur well for
democratic values and principles as its policies undermines individual liberty and rights.
The world cannot forget the gruesome suppression of democracy and individual freedom
at Tiananmen Square in June 1989. China at the helm of the New International Order
will imply propagating the ideologies of China Dream, National Unification, and Socialist
Modernisation with Chinese Characteristics, which would promote Chinese nationalism
while jeopardising the spirit of the existing Liberal International Order.
The world should stand for the rule-based international order with respect for democratic
values and the rights and freedoms of the people. Only such a system can ensure global
peace and security.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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THE INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE FACE
OF THE NEW CHINESE INVESTMENT WAVE
JORGE TAVARES DA SILVA
jmts@ua.pt
Visiting assistant professor at the University of Aveiro, Department of Social, Political and
Territorial Sciences (Portugal) and at the Faculty of Letters, University of Coimbra. He holds a
Ph.D. in International Relations in the specific field of International Politics and Conflict
Resolution. He is a Researcher at GOVCOPP - Research Unit on Governance, Competitiveness and
Public Policy. He is a founding member of the Observatory of China (Portugal) and the Center for
Studies and Research on Security and Defence of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro. Member of the
European Association for Chinese Studies and the Association of Chinese Political Studies and the
Portuguese Institute of Sinology; member of the Editorial Board of the Tempo Exterior, Spain and
Rotas a Oriente – Revista de Estudos Sino-Portugueses. He is author of multiple articles and
chapters of books in international journals, particularly on political, economic and social issues
facing contemporary China. He is coauthor of the book Role and Impact of Tourism in
Peacebuilding and Conflict Transformation (IGI Global, 2020); Luso-Chinese Relations, from the
16th century to the contemporary context [in Portuguese] (IIM, 2020) and Xi Xinping – The Rise
of China’s New Helmsman: the Man, Politics and the World [in Portuguese] (Sílabas & Desafios,
2021).
RUI P. PEREIRA
Rui.Pereira@dgae.gov.pt
He holds a MA in European Studies from the Portuguese Catholic University and Postgraduate
Degrees in Modern China (ISCSP/UTL) and International Economic Relations (ISEG/UTL). He has
a degree in International Relations from Lusíada University of Lisbon and completed FORGEP -
Training in Public Management for Intermediate Leaders in the Public Service (National Institute
of Administration) and the National Defense Auditors Course (National Defense Institute). He is
currently the Head of the International Relations Division at the Directorate-General for Economic
Activities - Ministry of Economy (Portugal). He is the Focal Point of the Forum for Economic and
Trade Cooperation between China and the Portuguese-Speaking Countries (Macau Forum). He is
a Founding Member of the Observatory of China - Association for Multidisciplinary Investigation
of Chinese Studies in Portugal. Most recent publications: Pereira, R. (2022), “The Middle Kingdom
in the Middle Atlantic: China in the Small Portuguese Island States”, co-authored with Duarte,
Paulo A. and Tavares da Silva, J., in China, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and São Tomé and
Príncipe From sporadic bilateral exchanges to a comprehensive multilateral platform, City
University of Macau; Pereira, R. (2020), "China e África: Uma Parceria de Cooperação Estratégica
ou Uma (Progressiva) Relação de Dependência? A Problemática da Dívida Africana”, Revista
Relações Internacionais, No. 65, Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais; Pereira, R.
(2020), “China and the Portuguese Atlantic: The BRI´s last puzzle piece”, co-authored with
Tavares da Silva, J., in The Belt and Road Initiative - International Perspectives on an Old
Archetype of a New Development Model (Leandro, F., Duarte, P. - eds), Palgrave Macmillan,
Singapore.
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The institutional challenges for the European Union in the face of the new Chinese investment wave
Jorge Tavares da Silva; Rui P. Pereira
56
Abstract
By analysing the historical picture between China and the European Union, focusing on their
trade and economic relations, and discussing the consequences of Chinese trade and
investment in Europe, this paper aims to analyse the consequences of Chinese investment in
Europe, how it is challenging the European unity, its institutional structure and its foreign
policy towards China.
Keywords
Sino-European relations; Chinese investment in Europe; European unity; European Union
Foreign Policy; Belt and Road Initiative
Resumo
Ao analisar o quadro histórico entre a China e a União Europeia, centrando-se nas suas
relações comerciais e económicas, e discutindo as consequências do comércio e investimento
chineses na Europa, este artigo pretende analisar as consequências do investimento chinês
na Europa, como está a desafiar a unidade europeia, a sua estrutura institucional e a sua
política externa em relação à China.
Palavras-chave
Relações sino-europeias; investimento chinês na Europa; unidade europeia; política externa
da União Europeia; Nova Rota da Seda
How to cite this article
Silva, Jorge Tavares da; Pereira, Rui P (2022). The institutional challenges for the European
Union in the face of the new chinese investment wave. Janus.net, e-journal of international
relations. VOL13 N2, TD1 - Thematic dossier “Perspectives on China's International Presence:
Strategies, Processes and Challenges”, December 2022. Consulted [online] on date of the last
view, https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT22.4
Article received on June 30, 2022 and accepted on May 5, 2022
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Jorge Tavares da Silva; Rui P. Pereira
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THE INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION IN
THE FACE OF THE NEW CHINESE INVESTMENT WAVE
JORGE TAVARES DA SILVA
RUI P. PEREIRA
Introduction
The European Union (EU), in the previous figure of the European Economic Community
(EEC), and the People´s Republic of China (PRC) established their first diplomatic
relations in 1975 still under the leadership of Mao Zedong. After 1978, onwards China´s
opening up and reforms policy, started a new framework of economic cooperation with
Europe that gradually evolved to a comprehensive political partnership in multiple
domains. In 1985, both parts signed their first agreement on trade and economic
cooperation. This document was based on customs and tariffs issues having to do with
markets access (Corre and Sepulchre, 2016: 11). The bilateral relations took great
significance after the 1990s and both parts are presently two of the biggest trading
partners in the world. In 2008, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe transformed the
continent in a favourite destination for Chinese investors.
Facing intense China´s economic offensive in Europe – particularly investment - some
European governments have begun to express concern. However, there is an ambivalent
stance in different moments. We find moments of assertive rhetoric and others of
reservation in relation to China. This seem to reveal a clear lack of clear-eyed strategy,
more defined by the spur of the moment. The EU ambivalence is entrenched in principles
such as values and interests that affect the way to follow its external relations,
(Christiansen et al. 2019: 29) and it expresses that the processes of Europeanization in
the field of foreign policy has not been successful. This process refers to the political and
policy changes caused by the membership in the EU (Wong, 2011: 150).
This paper aims to analyse the consequences of Chinese investment in Europe, how it is
challenging the European unity, its institutional structure and foreign policy towards
China. First, we analyse the historical picture between China and the European Union,
the great moments of cooperation and their antagonisms. Then, we focus on trade and
economic relations, presenting the main bilateral statistics on those domains. Finally, we
discuss the consequences of Chinese trade and investment in Europe, including pressure
on formal arrangements and administrative European routines.
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I. EU-China relations: general background
The bilateral relations between the EEC, the previous version of the EU, and China have
developed fast since diplomatic ties were established in 1975. Engagement has become
more intensive since the signature of the Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation
between the EEC and the People's Republic of China in 1985. Annual EU-China summits
were launched in 1998 and haven since taken place on an annual basis.
The creation of the EU-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2003 has deepened
and broadened cooperation in a wide range of areas, and the EU and China have become
highly interdependent as a result. They have also launched two senior-level forums to
promote wider and deeper cooperation. The High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue,
initiated in 2008, focused on areas such as trade, investment, intellectual property rights
and market access, and the High-Level Strategic Dialogue in 2010, which addresses
issues ranging from climate change and nuclear proliferation to regional security.
Since 2013, the 2003 Strategic Partnership has been broadened and deepened, in line
with the EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation. This has led to a high degree
of institutionalization of EU-China ties
1
, with an ever-growing number of dialogue formats
that cover political, economic and people-to-people relations, but whose results vary
significantly (Grieger, 2019).
This Strategic Agenda for Cooperation, which was considered the highest-level joint
document guiding the EU-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, has the following
sections:
I. Peace and Security: the EU and China commit to enhancing dialogue and
coordination at bilateral, regional and global levels, to meet regional and global
challenges together, and work to make the international order and system more just
and equitable;
II. Prosperity: both sides commit to enhance further their trade and investment
relationship towards 2020 in a spirit of mutual benefit, by promoting open,
transparent markets and a level playing field. Particular importance will be paid to
improving opportunities for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs);
III. Sustainable Development: the EU and China commit to strengthen bilateral
cooperation in the areas of science, technology and innovation, space and
aerospace, energy, urbanisation, climate change and environmental protection,
oceans and social progress, among others;
IV. People-to-People Exchanges: both sides commit to expand contacts between
peoples in order to enhance common understanding and to foster cross-fertilisation
between societies in the areas of culture, education and youth.
1
It was implemented through the annual Summit and three pillars directly underpinning the Summit (the
annual High Level Strategic Dialogue, the annual High Level Economic and Trade Dialogue, and the bi-
annual People-to-People Dialogue), as well as through the regular meetings of counterparts.
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Nonetheless, the European Commission considered that the EU needed its own strategy,
one that puts its own interests at the forefront in the new relationship with China
(European Commission, 2016). Accordingly, and further to a previous Communication on
China launched in October 2006, a Joint Communication to the European Parliament and
the Council has been released in June 2016, proposing “elements for a new EU strategy
on China”. The main proposals for this new EU strategy are as follows:
− Seize new openings to strengthen its relations with China;
− Engage China in its reform process in practical ways, which result in mutual benefits
for bilateral relations in economic, trade and investment, social, environmental and
other areas;
− Promote reciprocity, a level playing field and fair competition across all areas of
cooperation;
− Push for the timely completion of negotiations on a Comprehensive Agreement on
Investment and an ambitious approach to opening up new market opportunities;
− Drive forward infrastructure, trading, digital and people-to-people connectivity
between Europe and China based on an open rules platform with benefits for all the
countries along the proposed routes;
− Promote global public goods, sustainable development and international security, in
line with the respective UN and G20 responsibilities;
− Promote respect for the rule of law and human rights within China and internationally;
− Maximize EU cohesion and effectiveness in its dealings with China (“whole-of-EU”
approach).
More recently, the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for
Foreign Affairs and Security Policy prepared a Joint Communication to the European
Parliament, the European Council and the Council, entitled “EU-China, a Strategic
Outlook”, which was made public on 12 March 2019.
Although acknowledging that the 2016 Strategy on China remains the cornerstone of EU
engagement, it is argued that there is a need to “ensure that relations with this strategic
partner are set on a fair, balanced and mutually beneficial course” (European
Commission, 2019).
Under this background, there is a growing appreciation in Europe that the balance of
challenges and opportunities presented by China has shifted. In the last decade, China’s
economic power and political influence have grown with unprecedented scale and speed,
reflecting its ambitions to become a relevant global power: a China that would “stand
more firmly and powerfully among the nations around the world” (Xi Jinping, 2012).
Apart from the need to continue to cooperate and negotiate with China, for the first time
in these policy strategy papers, China is characterized as “an economic competitor in the
pursuit of technological leadership, and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of
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governance” (EU-China: A Strategic Outlook, 2019: 5), requiring a flexible and pragmatic
whole-of-EU approach.
The EU’s response to these challenges should be based on three objectives:
− Based on clearly defined interests and objectives, the EU should deepen its
engagement with China to promote common interests at global level;
− The EU should robustly seek more balanced and reciprocal conditions governing the
economic relationship;
− In order to maintain its prosperity, values and social model over the long term, there
are areas where the EU itself needs to adapt to changing economic realities and
strengthen its own domestic policies and industrial base.
To fulfil these objectives, were identified ten (10) concrete actions. First, to strengthen
the EU’s cooperation with China to meet common responsibilities across all three pillars
of the United Nations, Human Rights, Peace and Security, and Development. Second, in
order to fight climate change more effectively, the EU calls on China to peak its emissions
before 2030, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Third, the EU will deepen
engagement with China on peace and security, building on the positive cooperation on
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for Iran. Fourth, to preserve its interest in
stability, sustainable economic development and good governance in partner countries,
the EU will apply more robustly the existing bilateral agreements and financial
instruments, and work with China to follow the same principles through the
implementation of the EU Strategy on Connecting Europe and Asia. Fifth, in order to
achieve a more balanced and reciprocal economic relationship, the EU calls on China to
deliver on existing joint EU-China commitments. Sixth, to promote reciprocity and open
procurement opportunities in China, the European Parliament and the Council should
adopt the International Procurement Instrument before the end of 2019. Seventh, to
ensure that not only price but also high levels of labour and environmental standards are
taken into account, Eighth, to fully address the distortive effects of foreign state
ownership and state financing in the internal market, the Commission will identify before
the end of 2019 how to fill existing gaps in EU law. Ninth, to safeguard against potential
serious security implications for critical digital infrastructure, a common EU approach to
the security of 5G networks is needed. Tenth, to detect and raise awareness of security
risks posed by foreign investment in critical assets, technologies and infrastructure.
This paper was striking for at least two main reasons. First, it was the speed and the
unusual way by which it came about. Even more striking was its bluntness, which is rare
in official EU documents (Brattberg et al, 2020). Although three years have already
passed, the EU considers that it remains valid (EEAS, 2022).
In a direct response, the Chinese minister of foreign affairs, Wang Yi delivered a speech
in Brussels in December 2019, where he attacked virtually all the new elements of the
European approach, having stated that “we are partners, not rivals”, and called on the
EU and Beijing to draw up an “ambitious blueprint” for cooperation (Barkin, 2020). He
added that Europe and China had to “get mutual perceptions right”. Failure to do so
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would risk “unnecessary disruptions” to the relationship. This message was clear: if
Europe wants smooth relations, it should stop criticizing China.
If bilateral relations were not in a good phase in 2019, they went even worse over the
past two years, with a worldwide pandemic of unprecedented repercussions and, more
recently, a geopolitical turmoil with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Consequently, EU-China relations have deteriorated, notably related to a growing number
of political and economic irritants, including China’s counter measures to EU sanctions on
human rights, Chinese economic coercion and trade measures against the single market,
and China’s ambiguous positioning on the war in Ukraine (EEAS, 2022).
Josep Borell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and
Security Policy, has described the current status of the relationship in a clear and realistic
way, following the last EU/China Summit, held in April 2022 (HR/VP Blog, 2022):
“When it comes to EU-China relations, probably the most important thing for
us is to keep doing our ‘homework’ and strengthen internal EU resilience. In
recent years, we have taken significant steps on the defensive side of the
ledger (investment screening, 5G toolbox, anti-subsidies, new procurement
instrument) (…) We should always keep the door open to engage with China.
Despite all the well-known difficulties, it is important that we recognise that
we have a shared interest in managing this relationship in a responsible
manner.”
II. Trade and economic relations: the context of the EU debt crisis and
the Chinese investment upsurge
Since China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, the EU’s goods
exports to China have grown on average more than 10 percent a year, and service
exports by over 15 percent. This has resulted in ample benefits for EU producers and
consumers but, as imports from China have also grown rapidly, it has also caused some
degree of disruption in EU labour and product markets.
Currently, China is the EU’s second largest export market, behind the US, and is the EU’s
biggest source of imports. Bilateral trade, on average, amounts to €1.9 billion a day.
China’s exports to the EU have grown even more rapidly and the EU is now China’s largest
trading partner and the second largest export market for Chinese goods. In 2021, the EU
exported goods worth approximately 223 billion euros to China, around 20 billion euros
more than in the previous year (Statista, 2022).
Since 2002, the EU’s trade deficit with China has been growing consecutively and it
registered € 249 billion in 2021, equivalent to more than 1 percent of the EU’s GDP. The
widening of the bilateral trade deficit reflects a base effect: it has happened despite the
EU’s exports to China growing more rapidly than China’s exports to the EU. The EU’s
main imports from China are industrial and consumer goods, machinery and equipment,
and footwear and clothing, and the EU’s main exports to China are machinery and
equipment, motor vehicles, aircraft, and chemicals. Additionally, the EU-China trade in
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services amounts to more than 10% of total trade in goods, and the EU's exports of
services make up 19% of EU's total exports of goods (Statista, 2022). In 2020, the EU
exported €47 billion of services to China, while China exported €31 billion to the EU
(EEAS, 2022).
Certainly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows between the EU and China are closely
related to trade, as FDI results in the development of marketing networks, provides
financial and transport services and leads to production with a view to selling in global
markets. FDI flows can also substitute for trade, for example when investors establish
facilities to produce and sell in the same market. Furthermore, the purchase by investors
of controlling interests in competitors or suppliers, including raw materials, often fosters
global or regional value chains that ten to stimulate trade (Dadush et al, 2019).
The European Union (EU) became one of the most relevant destination for Chinese
outbound investment. Among the things that Chinese investors seek in Europe are:
− Technology, to include established high-tech assets, emerging technologies and know-
how;
− Access to the European market, for Chinese goods and services;
− Access to third markets through European corporate networks, especially in Latin
America and Africa;
− Brand names to improve the marketability of Chinese products, both abroad and for
the Chinese market;
− Integrated regional and global value chains in production, knowledge and transport;
− A stable legal, regulatory and political environment, particularly in a context of global
disruption and political uncertainty;
− Political/diplomatic influence in a region that in aggregate terms remains the second
largest economy after the US.
After the economic crisis of 2008-2009, a new wave of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI) entered in Europe. There have been a number of attractive assets, from financial
entities to infrastructure and companies in economic difficulty (Brown, 2019: 165). In
fact, in 2014 and 2015, the EU, estimated to be the largest market for Chinese
acquisitions, in terms of value (Hellström, 2016: 13). Philippe Corre (2018), called this
wave of investment as an “offensive”, revealing some associated concerns in the
European countries.
Since 2010, the Chinese investment received in Europe had been questioned
(Christiansen, 2019: 98). There are some concerns with the so-called dual-use
technologies in advanced fields, such as artificial intelligence, robotics and so forth
(Freudenstein, 2019: 84). Germany is already blocking certain sectors to China
investment — considered strategically relevant — such as defence, telecommunications,
and energy. This happens when foreign investment involves at least a 10% share. In the
past 10 years, China has invested at least $318 billion in European assets (Bloomberg,
2018). Nevertheless, a decrease of 17% occurred in 2017 over the previous year (in
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2016, China invested 34.9 billion euros in Europe, the highest level ever recorded), yet
representing the second highest value ever, 28.5 billion euros (Hanemann et. al, 2018:
31).
Amidst a general downturn in Chinese overseas investments, the Chinese FDI in Europe
declined 36 percent between 2017 and 2018. In 2019, the Chinese FDI in the EU reached
€12.2 billion, which is consistent with the global trends in Chinese outbound FDI. It
should be mentioned that the EU still fared better compared to other advanced
economies, and received more than twice the amount of Chinese investment than the US
did in 2019 (Rhodium Group, 2020).
During 2020, Chinese FDI flows in Europe were inevitably affected by the COVID-19
pandemic. In 2021, completed China’s FDI in Europe (EU-27 and the UK) increased 33
percent to €10.6 billion, from €7.9 billion in 2020. The increase was driven by two factors:
a €3.7 billion acquisition of the Philips home appliance business and a record high
greenfield investment of €3.3 billion. Still, 2021 was the second lowest year (only above
2020) for China’s investments in Europe since 2013 (MERICS, 2022: 3).
It is important to note, however, that the nature of Chinese investment in Europe is
changing. After years being dominated by Mergers&Acquisitions (M&A), it has become
more focused on greenfield projects. In 2021, greenfield investment reached €3.3 billion,
the highest ever recorded value, making up almost a third of all Chinese FDI (MERICS,
2022: 3).
Figure 1: China’s FDI into Europe Remains Stuck At Low Levels – Annual value of completed
transactions in Europe, in EUR billion
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China's investment has reached the whole continent, but it continues to be focused on
the big economies. The “Big Three” (UK, France, and Germany) jointly accounted for
39% of total investment in 2021. Even so, fear remains in Europe that weakened
economies of the south and east could easily be captured and controlled by China.
In 2021, the share of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) decreased by 10%,
compared with 2020. Their share of total Chinese investment also reached its lowest
point in 20 years, at only 12 percent.
The primary sectors for Chinese FDI have been energy, the chemical industry, and
infrastructure. This includes the acquisition of the Swiss pesticide company Syngenta,
the investment in the port of Piraeus in Greece and the nuclear power company Hinkley
Point C in the UK, and investment in the Italian tire company Pirelli. Cosco's participation
in the Port of Piraeus represents a preferential entry for the EU and a major maritime
transhipment hub for the Mediterranean (Putten, 2014, Putten and Meijnders, 2015: 11).
In 2021, consumer goods and automotive were the top sectors. Due to the Hillhouse
Capital acquisition, investment in consumer products surged to €3.8 billion. Activity in
automotive was driven by Chinese greenfield investments in electric vehicle (EV)
batteries. Together, the two sectors accounted for 59 percent of total investment value.
The next three biggest sectors were health, pharma and biotech; information and
communication technologies (ICT); and energy (MERICS, 2022: 3).
The magnitude and certain patterns of Chinese investments in Europe have raised some
concerns, namely related with:
− The role of the Chinese state in the economy;
− A lack of reciprocity and fair competition;
− National competitiveness and technological leadership;
− Uncertainty about security-related critical infrastructure and sensitive industries;
− Investments as a source of political and geopolitical influence, and divisions within
Europe;
− Broader regulatory concerns;
− Intra-European competition for investment;
− A growing “promise fatigue”.
As a result of these increased concerns, in 2017 the first discussions started in the EU on
the creation of a surveillance mechanism of foreign direct investment, which in reality
was an attempt to control the increasing Chinese investment in Europe. In many cases
conducted through state companies in strategic sectors such as energy,
telecommunications, finance and high technology (artificial intelligence, robotics or
semiconductors) (Santos Neves, 2018: 129).
This process was fostered and coordinated by the European Commission, further to the
new status of Foreign Direct Investment as EU exclusive competence with its integration
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in the Common Commercial Policy after the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty (1
December 2009).
Consequently, two years after, and In line with similar initiatives adopted by other
countries (e.g. Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and the United States), which are
increasingly toughening their foreign investment controls, the EU Foreign Investment
Screening Regulation (Regulation 2019/452) entered into force on 10 April 2019 and
became applicable from 11 October 2020.
With this Regulation, the EU aims to safeguard Europe's security and public order by
introducing the first EU-wide foreign investment screening cooperation mechanism and
scrutinizing purchases by foreign companies (from all third countries, including China)
that target the EU's strategic interests.
The key features of the Regulation (Meilin et al, 2020) are as follows:
− Creating a cooperation mechanism between the European Commission and the EU
Member States to exchange information and raise concerns related to specific
investments;
− Allowing the Commission to issue a non-binding opinion if (i) an investment poses a
threat to the security or public order of more than one Member State, or (ii) an
investment could undermine projects of interest to the whole EU, such as EU programs
for energy, transport and telecommunication networks (TEN-T, TEN-E, Trans-
European Networks for Telecommunications), Horizon 2020 and Galileo.
While the Commission will have no direct powers to block transactions, it may
nonetheless have the opportunity to 'influence' the outcome of foreign investment
screening by issuing an opinion to a Member State;
− Allowing EU Member States to provide comments to the Member States reviewing an
investment, when they consider that the investment will affect their security or public
order. The reviewing Member State must give due consideration to such comments.
Member States may even provide comments where the Member State in which the
investment takes place is not conducting a screening;
− Laying out a non-exhaustive list of factors that could trigger a screening process on
the grounds of security or public order - and, thus, expanding the scope of investments
to be reviewed;
2
− Providing certain basic requirements for Member States who choose to introduce a
screening mechanism at national level: (i) transparency and non-discrimination
between third parties; (ii) established timeframes for screening; (iii) protection of
2
This list includes, inter alia:
− Critical infrastructure (energy, transport, water, health, communications, media, data processing or
storage, aerospace, defence, electoral or financial infrastructure and sensitive facilities).
− Critical technologies and dual use items (artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, cybersecurity,
aerospace, defence, energy storage, quantum and nuclear technologies, as well as nanotechnologies
and biotechnologies).
− Critical inputs (energy, raw materials and food security).
− Access to sensitive information (personal data).
− Media freedom and pluralism.
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confidential information; and (iv) possibility of judicial redress against the Member
States' decisions.
The Regulation respects Member States' right to maintain, amend or adopt the screening
mechanisms, as well as their decision-making power regarding any investment
investigation in their territory. Accordingly, EU Member States' national regimes - not the
Regulation - continue to regulate the validity of investments in each EU Member State.
It is important to note that, while the Regulation promotes a cooperation mechanism
between the Commission and Member States to exchange information on investment
screening, it does not create an EU-level regulator who could issue a binding opinion and
block an investment.
This means that the Regulation does not provide any obligation for parties to notify their
transactions to the Commission or to suspend them pending the outcome of the
Commission's review. Nor does it require harmonization of EU Member States' national
investment screening mechanisms, or even create an obligation for EU Member States
to introduce such regimes.
However, the EU's new investment screening regime is likely to affect transactions in the
following ways: (i) more scrutiny on foreign investments; (ii) longer review periods; (iii)
more investments subject to screening.
Consequently, all potentially interested companies (including from China) will face a
'patchwork' of national foreign investment screening regimes in the EU with different
jurisdictional regimes and notification requirements, as well as a reformed and more
onerous EU framework. Therefore, they will face a dual-track system of merger control
and foreign investment review. Planned acquisitions by competitors can also be brought
to the attention of the European Commission and of the Member States' authorities
anytime these investments present risks for the EU's interests and security.
In a landmark decision, the Dutch government decided to prevent China from acquiring
one of its sensitive semiconductor equipment companies, after consulting a White House
intelligence report on the dangers of China acquiring that firm. European governments
should be able to make those assessments themselves, and European intelligence
agencies should be raising similar concerns (Smith et al, 2020).
A key question will be whether the EU can learn to coordinate better on FDI screening,
both internally and with Member States. There is also the need to increase cooperation
with third countries. Now, the EU is already engaging actively with the US Treasury and
the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry. The new European
Commission considers investment screening a top priority as part of an overall effort to
strengthen European sovereignty (Brattberg et al, 2020), according to the principles
contained in the Regulation 2019/452.
Further to the entry into force of the FDI Screening Regulation on 11 October 2020, the
European Commission prepared the ‘First Annual report on the screening of foreign direct
investments into the Union’, presented to the European Parliament and the Council on
23 November 2021 (COM(2021) 714 final).
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One of the main conclusions is that, until November 2021, not all Member States have
their FDI screening mechanism already in full implementation. Some Member States have
adopted new legislation, others adopted amendments to an existing mechanism, or
initiated a consultative or legislative process expected to result in amendments to an
existing legislation.
There is no time limit to conclude this process, but one can expect that the European
Commission might introduce some pressure in order to guarantee that all Member States
are in a similar situation as regards FDI investment screening legislation, as it is stated
in the conclusion of the report (COM(2021) 714 final: 20):
“The Commission firmly expects that by the next Annual Report additional Member States
will have adopted and strengthened national FDI screening legislation and related
mechanisms for potentially risky foreign investments from non-EU countries and that it
is merely a question of time before all 27 Member States have such legislation and
mechanisms in place.”
III. Absence of European institutional answers toward China´s
economic offensive
The strong wave of investment after the debt crisis created in some EU leaders concerns
over China’s growing economic presence in Europe. They fear the potential political
influence on EU policymaking (CRS, 2019). Further to the surprising characterization of
China as a systemic rival and economic competitor (European Commission, 2019). this
new approach revealed a shift on how far European institutions were willing to go to face
the challenges imposed by Chinese investment (Smith and Taussig, 2020). Following the
EU strategy paper of March 2019, European leaders such as the German Chancellor
Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron expressed arguments on the
same direction.
The size of the Chinese market and the amount of money used by Chinese investors is a
source of significant influence in Europe. The lack of unity in terms of foreign policy gives
China an important advantage in negotiations (CRS, 2019). However, it is also
highlighted that neither the EU nor individual European leaders have taken the
meaningful steps needed to close existing vulnerabilities in Europe’s relationship with
China, to stand up for European values of democracy and human rights, or strengthen
Europe’s resolve against Chinese economic and political pressure.
Partly, this was due to significant distractions in the second half of 2019, as the EU had
to cope with a leadership transition and the negotiation of the Brexit arrangement. On
31 January 2020, the United Kingdom ceased to be a Member State of the EU. At that
moment, the Exit Agreement came into force, guaranteeing an orderly exit of that
country from the organization, and a transitional period began, which ended on
December 31, 2020. Also, there is domestic instability within Europe, and the coming
months are unlikely to produce better results. The EU will continue to face domestic and
regional challenges, including ongoing protests throughout France, a weakening coalition
government in Germany, and the UK’s formal exit from the Union on January 31, which
will trigger months, if not years, of additional work to implement.
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Whilst many factors contributed for the new EU strategy towards China, the influence of
Donald Trump and Joe Biden tensions related to China are very relevant, with the EU
recognizing the need to develop more independence from the United States in foreign
affairs. Signs that the Sino-US trade war had begun to hurt the Chinese economy may
have given the EU confidence that the time was right for a change in strategy towards
challenging China for a reciprocal relationship (Quirk, 2020).
In a recent article at The Economist (2020), a dozen European ambassadors in Beijing
were asked whether China was a source of unity or disunity in their continent. The
question divided them. One diplomat calls the 17+1 grouping a mostly benign attempt
by China to re-establish fraternal links with ex-socialist countries, and no more divisive
than the endless bilateral exchanges that bigger countries, like Germany or France, have
with China. Still, he concedes, if China sees a chance to get its way by driving wedges
between EU members, it will. “The Chinese take the EU as seriously as the EU takes
itself. They are taking advantage of the opportunities we give them,” he says. Recent
17+1 drafts talk about cooperation on the basis of the sovereignty of participating
countries, worries a diplomat, seeing a coded Chinese challenge to multilateralism and
European values. Such papers are a “sneaky way to test how vigilant we are”, he sighs.
In Central and Eastern Europe, the 16 + 1 initiative was launched in 2012 (renamed
“17+1” after the inclusion of Greece), a new platform for dialogue between China and 16
so-called post-Soviet countries
3
, 12 of which belong to the EU (CEEC-China, 2017).
China's Foreign Ministry has purposely set up a permanent secretariat for relations with
this European area. However, there are no permanent representatives from the European
states, which indicates an asymmetrical relationship.
China invested already many billions of dollars in the Eastern European region, which is
less economically strong. The idea is to increase exports to this area, extend the BRI to
the region, and gain greater capacity for influence, at a time when China and the US are
experiencing commercial tensions. Europe can be a very relevant partner for Beijing's
geopolitical aspirations, in a framework of overcoming American hegemony and building
a multipolar world. In fact, while China defends a logic of multilateralism, it does not fail
to exploit bilateral dynamics, especially with smaller countries, where it has strong
negotiating power. These include the creation of a Chamber of Commerce, meetings of
experts and think tanks, a Forum of Young Political Leaders, a forum for education,
bilateral political dialogues, a Tourism Promotion Agency (based in Budapest), and an
Investment Promotion Agency (based in Warsaw and Beijing) (Europe Now, 2018). Of
particular note was the creation of the New Silk Road Institute (NSRI), an independent
think tank created in Prague in September 2015 to strengthen ties between Asia and
Europe, publicising BRI concepts in the country, led by Jan Kohout, former Minister of
Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic and adviser to the President (Economist, 2018,
p.20; NSRI, 2018). The agreed rules and market rules complement EU projects and
policies, avoiding divisions within the European bloc, and particularly harming relations
with Germany (South China Morning Post, 2018).
3
The 17 + 1 initiative joins China, the EU, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece; and EU non-members (candidates to EU
accession), Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia.
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Not least significant, China has upgraded the “17+1” meeting, as the next one (initially
scheduled for April 2020, it might be postponed further to the new coronavirus
pandemics) will be chaired by Xi Jinping. European officials regard this as a Chinese move
to undercut one the goals of the Leipzig Summit, which Berlin had intended as a
demonstration that Central and Eastern European states would gain more from China by
working through EU formats (Small, 2020).
China's increasing investment in Southern Europe, such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, and
Greece, has led countries like Germany to warn European partners about China. This
contributed to a scenario of competition between Member States. Some EU members
such as Greece became more complacent with China because of huge economic interests,
meaning even more Chinese investment and perhaps more access to the Chinese market
(ETNC, 2017). The lack of reciprocity and the restrictive practices of China on investment
access makes Europe call on protectionist mechanisms. This create a necessity of a
common foreign policy and a new context of consensus.
China explores divergences in Europe in its favour and prefers to deal with national
capitals rather than the EU as a whole, provoking and encouraging political divisions in
Europe and openly pursuing a divide-and-rule strategy. And the EU Member States are
often eager to upgrade relations with China individually, even at the expense of common
EU policies and initiatives (Maher, 2016, p. 976). For instance, each Member State.
interpret projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative differently. The same happens with
5G technology. On 5G (fifth generation of mobile networks), and its security concerns,
following a request from the European Council for a concerted European approach, the
European Commission drafted a plan of legislative and policy instruments essentially
involving three steps: a national 5G security risk assessment in each of the Member
States, a coordinated European-level assessment, and a common toolbox of mitigating
measures to address identified risks. The report on the coordinated risk assessment
produced by the Commission’s NIS Cooperation Group was released on October 9, 2019.
On December 3, 2019, the European Council endorsed the findings and urged all Member
States to develop responses. More recently, in January 29, 2020, the European
Commission endorsed the joint toolbox of mitigating measures to address security risks
related to the rollout of 5G. Through the toolbox, the Member States are committing to
move forward in a joint manner based on an objective assessment of identified risks and
proportionate mitigating measures. The Commission called for key measures to be put
in place by 30 April 2020. In 2022, a new report by NIS confirmed previous security risks.
They are mainly a “larger attack surface and more entry points for malicious actors, an
increased risk of misconfiguration of networks and potential impacts on other network
functions due to resource sharing” (European Commission, 2022).
Some European countries have delayed increasingly urgent decisions over whether
Chinese telecoms equipment giant Huawei should be allowed to build their 5G mobile
networks. The biggest countries, including Germany and France, are still debating
whether Huawei should be given a role in their 5G rollout. After studiously avoiding
decisions in 2019, the big European players will need to come down one way or another
in 2020. Their decisions will have a ripple effect on smaller countries. In 2021, Bundestag
trough IT Security Law 2.0, restricted the role of unreliable suppliers of 5G technology.
The new law requires digital companies to notify the government if they sign contracts
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for critical 5G components. It also gives the government capacity to block them
(Bundestag, 2021).
In a paper released in January 2020, the main European business association, Business
Europe, sets out a strategy on how the EU and China can build a stronger and fairer
economic relationship.
The paper first demonstrates that there is a shift in the balance of opportunities and
challenges in the European economic relationship with China, which means that the EU
should reconsider how it engages China. As a result, Business Europe advances four key
objectives that the EU should pursue in order to seize the opportunities within the
economic relationship and to address the systemic challenges that China’s state-led
economic system poses to Europe. The four key objectives are as follows:
1. Secure a level playing field between China and the EU;
2. Mitigate the impact of China’s government-induced market distortions;
3. Reinforce the EU’s own competitiveness;
4. Ensure fair competition and cooperation on third markets.
At official level, the EU has taken concrete steps in two key areas: procurement and
subsidies. Having one of the world’s largest open procurement markets, the EU has long
called for a more level playing field with China in the area of public procurement. An
International Procurement Instrument (IPI), proposed by the European Commission in
2012 and revised in 2016, was finally adopted by the EU Council in June 2022, following
the green light from the European Parliament).
Under this new instrument, there will be limits of access from foreign entities to the EU
procurement market if these same countries discriminate against European companies.
The IPI is intended to increase the EU’s bargaining to promote reciprocity, address
protectionism, and provide new procurement opportunities for EU companies abroad.
Moreover, addressing excessive state subsidies is a top priority for the new European
Commission. The new European Commissioner for Competition, Margrethe Vestager, has
said the EU is considering fresh efforts to curb unfair Chinese competition. The main
challenge for the EU is how to deal with state-driven subsidization of state-owned
companies and subsidies of whole industries that are currently not regulated.
Consequently, on May 2022, the EU Member States agreed on a negotiating mandate to
the Council for the regulation on foreign subsidies distorting the internal market.
The regulation aims to address the distortions created by subsidies granted by non-EU
countries to companies operating in the EU’s single market. It establishes a
comprehensive framework for the Commission to investigate any economic activity
benefiting from a third-country subsidy on the internal market and to set up a specific
framework for subsidies granted by third countries in the context of large concentrations
and large public procurement procedures.
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Furthermore, after a long period of negotiations (started in 2013), on 30 December 2020,
the EU and China concluded in principle the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment
(CAI).
In the agreement, China commits to ensuring fairer treatment for EU companies in China,
allowing them to compete on a more level playing field. These commitments cover state-
owned enterprises, transparency of subsidies, and rules against forced technology
transfer. The rules negotiated in the CAI set a high benchmark in terms of transparency,
a level playing field, market access commitments and sustainable development (EU
Commission DG Trade, 2022).
However, the CAI has not yet been ratified, and at this stage it is difficult to anticipate
when that will happen. Consequently, it is not into force yet.
As things stand, the best-case scenario for Europe’s approach to China would, inter alia,
see the EU establishing: an ambitious industrial strategy and set of connectivity plans; a
harder-edged approach to trade enforcement; a new China-centred antitrust instrument;
reciprocity measures for government procurement; and a heightened security and values
focus in its handling of telecoms, data and wider digital issues (Small, 2020).
Conclusion
China is assuming a leading role in the globalized world, the most powerful trading power
in the globe. The relations between China and Europe gained a particular importance in
this context. After the 2008 European debt crisis, China started a new wave of investment
in Europe. It acquired important companies in strategic sectors, and this provoked
gradual worries on European countries. Additionally, the level playing field is still not a
reality, as there are significant gaps in investment openness between both sides.
After a maximum of €47.4 billion in 2016 and €40 billion in 2018, Chinese FDI into Europe
began to decrease in the latest years, and it is not expected to resume to those levels in
the near future. There are a number of reasons that might help to explain this: the effects
of COVID-19 pandemic, the increased regulatory scrutiny of FDI in the EU Member
States, current EU-China political and trade tensions, and the geopolitical impact of the
war in Ukraine.
To be sure, Europe will never settle on a single view of China, but it can make efforts to
increase awareness of Chinese activities (especially political influence operations) in the
EU countries, namely through the investment screening mechanism. It became fully
operational last October 2020, but the Regulation is still in its early years, therefore it is
too soon for a thorough evaluation on its effectiveness.
At the same time, Europe will have to continue to press Beijing for substantive
improvements on reciprocity as regards market access conditions and level playing field
(procurement and subsidies are two examples of this). There is no other option, and the
EU and its Member States would only gain if they come up with a truly unified voice and
strategy.
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It is clear that the EU-China agenda was seriously compromised due to several factors,
the effects of COVID-19 pandemics, trade and human rights irritants, as well as political
issues (the war in Ukraine above all), and prospects are still uncertain for the time being.
Although the COVID-19 crisis revealed, once again, some fragilities of the EU project (the
traditional North and South division), the war in Ukraine showed that a more concerted
coalition-building efforts among liberal democracies is possible. Despite all their
differences, they still have substantial areas of common ground on China, and are
starting to face up the limits of what they can hope to achieve alone. This is true not only
for trade, but for foreign direct investment as well.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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PORTUGUESE STRATEGIES TOWARDS CHINA
DURING THE COVID19 PANDEMIC
XIAOYING HOU
usp_xisusofia@hotmail.com
Instructor of Department of Europe, Xi’an International Studies University (China). Ph.D.
candidate in International Politics and Conflict Resolution which is offered by the Faculty of
Economics in collaboration with the Centre for Social Studies of the University of Coimbra. She
holds a Master’s in Portuguese Literature from the University of Coimbra, as well as a Bachelor of
Portuguese Language and Culture from Xi’an International Studies University. She has acted as a
lecturer in the undergraduate program of the Portuguese of School of Occidental Studies of 西安外
国语大学 Xi’an International Studies University.
CARMEN AMADO MENDES
carmen.mendes@fe.uc.pt
President of the Macau Scientific and Cultural Centre. Associate Professor of International
Relations with tenure, accredited at the School of Economics of the University of Coimbra
(Portugal), where she established the course “China and the Portuguese-speaking Countries in
World Trade”. Former head of the International Relations department and coordinator of the
School of Economics International Office at the same university. Holds a Ph.D. degree from the
School of Oriental and African Studies – University of London, a Master degree from the Institute
of Higher European Studies – University of Strasbourg, and a Bachelor degree from the Institute
of Social and Political Sciences – University of Lisbon. She was a Post-doctorate scholar at the
Institute of Political Studies of the Portuguese Catholic University of Lisbon and visiting professor
at the University of Macau, the University of Salamanca and the University of Lyon. She was a
board member of the European Association for Chinese Studies, and the organizer of the 2014
EACS conference in Coimbra; and president of the International Relations Section and member of
the board of the Portuguese Political Science Association. Principal Investigator at the University
of Coimbra on a research project on the role of Macau in China´s relations with the Portuguese
speaking-countries, funded by the Portuguese national funding agency for Science, Research and
Technology; and on a project on South-South Cooperation for the Europe China Research and
Advice Network, supported by the European External Action Service. Auditor of the Portuguese
National Defense Institute. Co-founder of the consulting company ChinaLink, and of the
Observatory for China in Portugal. Author of China and the Macau Negotiations, 1986-
1999 (HKUP) and China’s New Silk Road: An Emerging World Order (Routledge), as well as other
publications available for consultation at: www.uc.pt/feuc/carmen
Abstract
Small states, despite their power deficits, are able to influence large states. This paper
explores how Portugal appears to have selected strategies to modulate yet improve its
relations with China during the Covid19 pandemic. According to the Theory of Asymmetrical
Negotiations (TAN) advanced by Habeeb, small states adopt soft strategies when they have
high levels of commitment, worse alternatives available to them, and a low degree of control.
During the pandemic, an increase in deficits drove Portugal’s government to seek to expand
exports, attract investment, and improve its competitiveness. The authors find that Portugal
has exhibited different behaviour regarding commitment, seeking alternatives, and exerting
control in issues related to investment, export, and competitiveness. Portugal has flexibly
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL13 N2, TD1
Thematic dossier – Perspectives on China’s international presence - December 2022, pp. 77-96
Portuguese strategies towards China during the COVID19 pandemic
Xiaoying Hou; Carmen Amado Mendes
78
employed soft strategies towards China during the pandemic, while reacting to external
intervention from the US and maintaining internal compliance within the EU. With these
strategies, Portugal has successfully, and without conflict, defended its interests, maintained
its EU status, and limited the intensity of competition between the US and China regarding
Portugal.
Keywords
Portugal-China relations; small states; covid19; Theory of Asymmetrical Negotiations;
strategy choices
Resumo
Os pequenos estados, apesar dos seus défices de poder, são capazes de influenciar os grandes
estados. Este artigo explora como Portugal parece ter selecionado estratégias para modular
mas melhorar as suas relações com a China durante a pandemia de Covid19. De acordo com
a Teoria das Negociações Assimétricas (TAN) avançada por Habeeb, os pequenos estados
adotam estratégias suaves quando têm altos níveis de compromisso, piores alternativas
disponíveis, e um baixo grau de controlo. Durante a pandemia, um aumento dos défices levou
o governo português a procurar expandir as exportações, atrair investimento, e melhorar a
sua competitividade. Os autores constatam que Portugal tem demonstrado comportamentos
diferentes no que respeita ao compromisso, à procura de alternativas e ao exercício do
controlo em questões relacionadas com investimento, exportação e competitividade. Portugal
tem utilizado de forma flexível estratégias brandas em relação à China durante a pandemia,
ao mesmo tempo que reage à intervenção externa dos EUA e mantém a conformidade interna
dentro da UE. Com estas estratégias, Portugal tem defendido com sucesso, e sem conflitos,
os seus interesses, mantido o seu estatuto na UE, e limitado a intensidade da concorrência
entre os EUA e a China em relação a Portugal.
Palavras-chave
Relações Portugal-China; pequenos estados; covid19; Teoria das Negociações Assimétricas;
escolhas estratégicas
How to cite this article
Xiaouying, Hou; Mendes, Carmen Amado (2022). Portuguese Strategies towards China during
the Covid19 Pandemic. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations. VOL13 N2, TD1 -
Thematic dossier “Perspectives on China's International Presence: Strategies, Processes and
Challenges”, December 2022. Consulted [online] on date of the last view,
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.DT22.5
Article received on June 19, 2022 and accepted on June 25, 2022
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Thematic dossier – Perspectives on China’s international presence - December 2022, pp. 77-96
Portuguese strategies towards China during the COVID19 pandemic
Xiaoying Hou; Carmen Amado Mendes
79
PORTUGUESE STRATEGIES TOWARDS CHINA
DURING THE COVID19 PANDEMIC
XIAOYING HOU
CARMEN AMADO MENDES
1. Introduction
While previous studies concerning relations between Portugal and China have tended to
focus on the strategies that could be ascribed to China, this article makes of use of the
Theory of Asymmetrical Negotiations (TAN), advanced by Habeeb in 1988, to analyse
how three factors - commitment, alternatives, and control – can be said to have
influenced Portugal’s strategies towards China during the Pandemic. The paper tests the
effectiveness of TAN in explaining the strategy choices made by small states towards
large states, and thereby enriches our understanding of Portugal’s ongoing diplomacy,
and the diplomatic possibilities available to small states.
In this paper the term commitment refers to the extent to which small states need to
achieve their own defined goals, and alternatives refers to the range of choices available
to small states, other than relying on a large state, to achieve its defined goals. The
expression control refers to the ability of a small state to mitigate the costs of declining
to cooperate with an involved larger state, to achieve its goals. The Theory of
Asymmetrical Negotiations holds that when a small state has a high level of commitment,
unfavourable alternatives, and limited control over a single issue in its relations with a
large state, it is at a disadvantage in terms of the ‘balance of power’, and resorts to soft
negotiation strategies. Conversely, when a small state has a degree of advantage, it
tends to adopt hard negotiation strategies. This article tests this supposition and argues
that small states generally adopt mixed strategies since the ‘balance of power’ is always
in flux.
Portugal is taken here as a case study, and not without reason. Portugal was engaged
for years in negotiations with China over the return of Macau to Chinese sovereignty in
the 1990s, and as Mendes noted, “The Sino-Portuguese negotiations demonstrate how
complex it is for a small, weak country with a tangled political bureaucracy to define
strategy, aims and alternative scenarios when negotiating with a large and relatively
strong state.” (Mendes, 2013:114). Lewis (2009: IX) argued that small states have three
specific vulnerabilities. Firstly, they suffer from a resource vulnerability that derives from
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the physical location of the state. Secondly, they experience socio-political vulnerability
that arises from the management of the state’s policy operations and the stability of its
decision-making processes. Thirdly, and contestably most important of the three in
today’s world, is the economic vulnerability that a state experiences, as an economic unit
of a specific geographical size in relation to both its domestic resources and the networks
of international transactions in which it is involved.
Portugal clearly presents an example of all three vulnerabilities. According to World Bank
data, Portugal has a relatively small population of only 10.3 million citizens, thus ranking
in 88th place in world ranking. Its territory of a little over 92 thousand km2 gives it a
world ranking of 109th position in size. Portugal’s relatively small population and limited
territory have resulted in an economic structure that has led to persistent fiscal deficits
and generally low economic activity. The result has been that the divergences between
the main political parties over fiscal policy have led to a low level of policy continuity.
Portugal may be small, but it is not weak since it has at its disposition rich diplomatic
resources, and promotes economic and technological issues to its advantage. In the
diplomatic dimension, Portugal is a European Union (EU) member-state, an ally of the
United States (US), and active in establishing a coalition with Portuguese-speaking
Countries (PSCs) within the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries (CPLP). In the
economic dimension, Portugal’s renewable energy industry can be considered to be at an
advanced level. In the technological dimension, Portugal occupies a position at the
medium level within the EU, particularly with regard to its initiatives in renewable energy,
space technology, new materials, and biotechnology (OECD, 2013). China, the US, and
the EU itself have been the three principal sources from which Portugal could borrow
financial resources to enable it to address the increased vulnerabilities that it faced during
the pandemic. Portugal, as the small state that it is, experienced a high fiscal deficit,
social unrest, and even political crisis, thus demonstrating its vulnerability to external
shocks. The Portuguese administration took attracting investment, expanding exports,
and enhancing its international competitiveness as its key goals to address its
vulnerabilities, and consequently has a high commitment to them. When considering
whether there were choices available to Portugal, there were few other possibilities, and
on top of that it was a fact that, leaving aside the EU, Portugal would face the two
dominant economic powers. Ultimately, “For a small country, negotiations with a power
require a lot of preparation in order to keep a good level of intervention during the talks.
It also demands the understanding of the real intentions of the power so as to conclude
whether an issue is really vital for the strong state.” (Mendes, 2013: 114)
In March 2019, Brussel launched ten strategic actions aimed at China in its EU-China: a
Strategic Outlook, and requested EU member-states to strengthen their monitoring and
regulation of Chinese investments in the region. The US and EU both exerted pressure
on Portugal and offered it alternatives in attempts to reduce any increased commitment
on Portugal’s side to China. As support, Portugal has access to EU’s funds and the internal
market as a member-state, while the US provides access to the export market,
investment, and technology. Support has come with conditions. The US has defined China
as a strategic competitor and has clearly stated that American liquefied natural gas (LNG)
would not be allowed to enter the European market through the Portuguese port of Sines
if the port were to accept Chinese investment, or if Portugal cooperated with Huawei in
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the 5G field (DN/Lusa, 2019; Ferreira and Gaudêncio, 2020; Lusa, 2020; Machado,
2020). Furthermore, if China were to obtain stakes in the Portuguese electric utilities
company Energias de Portugal (EDP), the company would experience constraining
limitations in the US. Under these conditions, in its diplomatic exchanges with China,
Portugal principally used an interest-linkage strategy by offering benefits to Chinese
investors to attract Chinese financial support, and a balancing strategy by borrowing
simultaneously from China and other actors, in an attempt to maintain EU integration
and ally itself with the US, to which Portugal gives priority over its relations with China.
Portugal also implemented a control-risk strategy on 5G by not taking any clear stance,
despite it being an issue on which the US and EU attempted to reduce Portuguese
commitment to China. In this way, Portugal managed to ‘borrow power’ from multiple
western allies, and also non-western friendly states, to achieve its goals.
In the following sections, we analyse the factors that influenced and influence Portugal’s
strategic choices. The first of these sections briefly explains the theory and methodology
of the Theory of Asymmetrical Negotiations (TAN). The second section clarifies why
Portugal has defined attracting investment, export expansion, and competitiveness as its
goals during the pandemic. The third section analyses how commitment, alternative(s),
and control on investment-related issues directly influence Portuguese strategies, and
the fourth section takes up export-related issues. The fifth and final section focuses on
issues related to competitiveness, and concludes with the power resources Portugal uses
in its strategy towards China, and the effects that they have.
2. Theoretical framework and methodology
Strategies refer to consciously designed efforts to accomplish previously defined goals
within outcomes. The goals and the ‘influence capacity’ — i.e. the resources available to
a small state’s government and its capacity to employ the resources — together
determine how specific strategies are designed. There are different definitions of what
constitutes a small state’s goals and its capacity to exert influence. Some scholars focus
on the quantitative characteristics of small states, considering them straightforwardly as
actors possessing a small population size, limited gross domestic product, a restricted
territorial area and a small trade volume, or as having a combination of all these four
features (Cooper and Shaw, 2009). For hard-line realists, small sizes are indicators that
measure the material power resources of a state. The difference between the sizes of
small states and of large states directly explains the deficits of material power resources
that small states experience. Hard-line realists view material resources specifically as
available resources that are able to produce influence. They argue that small states, as
actors with a deficit of material power, take survival as their fundamental strategic goal,
and do not really exert any influence on large states.
Focusing on the qualitative natures of small states, Keohane (1969) regarded small states
as those with weak influence. He considered that both material and normative power
resources are effective in producing influence, and argued that the goal of small states
is to strengthen their interdependence, and that this situation explains the two strategy
choices of small states, e.g. constructing alliances with one large state to influence
another, and participating in an international system in which they obtain equal rights to
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make their voices heard. Goetschel (1998) adopts a relational view of power, defending
three types of resources to create influence, namely material, normative, and relational
recourses. He argued that the goal for small states was to maximize influence, and
minimize or compensate for the power deficits. In this article we adhere to Goetschel’s
view and maintain that small states mobilize all their available resources to achieve their
goals. The types of resources mobilized can be observed in their real bilateral exchanges.
Small states use strategies to grow their internal power resources and borrow resources
from large states, or enter coalitions with other small states, to increase their own
influence.
Some commentators regard small states as actors with inherent vulnerabilities.
Vulnerabilities here refer to high exposure to external shocks such as invasions,
externally directed coups, mercenary attacks, and economic setbacks (Payne, 2004:626;
Briguglio, 2014). Correspondingly, resilience refers to the extent to which an small state
can withstand or recover from the negative effects of external shocks (Briguglio, 2014).
Briguglio regards resilience as an ability ‘that may be inherent or nurtured’ in small
states. However, other scholars consider that resilience derives from the goal of the
internal development policies of small states and their foreign policies (Payne, 2009). On
this point we follow Payne’s point of view and regard that the goal of small states as
being to construct resilience, and that their strategies are efforts to address the
underlying causes of their vulnerabilities. To sum up, we maintain that the diplomatic
goals of small states can be classified in two categories. One is external, and consists of
reducing their power deficit in the existing international power relation network. The
other is internal, and focuses on addressing inherent vulnerabilities. The strategic goals
of small states are dynamic, and alternate between the two categories. The more resilient
a state is to external shock, the more importance it places on reducing its external power
deficits. The less resilient it is, the more priority a small state will give to addressing its
vulnerabilities. The power resources that small states use can be material, normative,
and relational. Small states, despite their small size, once they have employed effective
strategies, can gain resilience and influence, and consequently are not invariably
vulnerable and weak.
A number of case studies reveal that the strategy choices small states make in their
relations with large states are constrained both by inherent vulnerabilities and external
power deficits, but few commentators explain the relationship between the two
contextual settings and strategy choices. We consider that the Theory of Asymmetrical
Negotiations (Habeeb, 1988) coherently explains how inherent vulnerabilities and
external power asymmetries moderate the strategies of small states. Following Habeeb’s
reasoning, we maintain that the perception of inherent vulnerabilities, and related
benefit-cost calculations, by the main political parties in a small state determine what
diplomatic goals small states will have, and the extent of their commitment to achieving
these goals. Their perception of external power relations determines what alternatives
will be considered better when borrowing from external power resources. Both
vulnerabilities and power asymmetries, by limiting available internal and external power
resources to small states, determine to what extent they have control over the issue, or
in other words, the ability to achieve their goals without cooperating with a large state.
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Small states have at their disposition a wide range of strategies to achieve concessions
from a large state. They may request aid using a ‘weakness’ narrative as a negotiating
tool (Keohane, 1969); construct a capacity priority in issues of strategic importance to
the large state (Habeeb, 1988; Dinar, 2009); create a coalition with other small states
that have common interests in their relations to a large state (Lieberfeld, 1995; Ourbak
and Magnan, 2017); draw on the strength of other large states (Keohane, 1971; Cha,
2010; Kuik, 2010; Klöck, 2020); or employ the rights pertaining to their memberships
of international institutions, such as voting, participating in consultations, and initiating
proceedings (Lee, 2009). The strategies by which small states bring benefits to large
states can be seen as soft, and those that bring costs as being hard. From this
perspective, we identify a number of examples of the strategies used by small states
towards large states in different cases, classifying them on a scale from soft to hard:
i. Interest-linkage strategy: establishing linkages between small states’ issues with
advantage to their strategic importance to large states (Haggard and Moon, 1983;
Kuik, 2010).
ii. Balance strategy: drawing on the strength of other large state(s) (Cha, 2010;
Keohane, 1971; Klöck, 2020; Kuik, 2010)
iii. Issue-linkage strategy: using concessions on one issue in exchange for the
counterpart’s concession on another (Zahariadis, 2017)
iv. Control-risk strategy: entering into agreement with the large states in an
ambiguous and flexible manner, fostering good relations with the large power while
providing room for the small state to manoeuvre (Yoffie, 1983; Pacheco Pardo and
Reeves, 2014).
v. Coalition strategy: cooperating with other small states to alter the existing power
balance in the favour of small states (Lee, 2009; Ourbak and Magnan, 2017).
vi. Institutional strategy: using membership in international organizations (Betzold,
2010).
vii. Threat-causing strategy: creating escalating tensions, military conflict, or even
‘defecting’ to the opposing camp to force a great power partner to address the
concerns of the small state (Schelling, 1960).
In terms of methodology, in this paper we have used standard Documentary Research
methods to collect Portuguese official documents, the speeches made by key politicians,
and texts on Portuguese-Chinese relations available on the websites of government and
mainstream media. Our aim has been to assess the perceptions held by elites of
vulnerabilities and power deficits, and thereby Portugal’s overall commitment to
Portuguese-Chinese relations. The sources we have used include critical articles found in
academic libraries, databases and media, and we have made use of the Deductive
Reasoning method to undertake qualitative analysis of the collected texts.
3. Portuguese goals during the Pandemic
Our analysis of government documents and the speeches of key-politicians strongly
suggests that the Portuguese elites share the idea that attracting foreign investments,
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expanding exports, and improving competitiveness should be prioritized goals for
Portugal, after the setbacks caused by the pandemic.
Prior to the pandemic, according to the Portuguese National Statistics Institute (NSI),
the national resource vulnerability lay in the country’s small and ageing population, which
had labour market of only 4.8 million workers, the limited diversity of natural resources,
and a lack of natural gas and oil reserves. The limited labour market led to low production
volumes and low revenues, and the limited diversity of natural resources could not
support a well-structured industrial system (Cardoso & Rua, 2019). Limited energy
storage led to a high dependence on strategic imports, with Portugal’s energy
dependency rising steadily from 73.5% in 2013, to 78.3% in 2015 (MCC, 2021). Limited
revenues resulted in low investment to develop Portugal’s competitiveness through
improving industrialisation, increasing production volume and added value, developing
transport networks, and training highly skilled labourers (Blanchard & Portugal, 2017;
Lopes & Antunes, 2018; OECD, 2013, 2021).
The result was that Portugal needed to purchase strategic energy resources and
expensive value-added products while exporting limited quantities of low value-added
products, with high transport costs. Expenditure consistently exceeded revenue. Since
the establishment of the Republic in 1974, Portugal has always had to deal with fiscal
deficits and only achieved 0.1% positive fiscal returns once, in 2019. Low wages and high
unemployment have caused frequent strikes and political struggles between political
parties, resulting in politico-social vulnerability. Portugal’s two main political parties have
long been divided over their fiscal policies. The Socialist Party (SP) has emphasized fiscal
expansion while the Social Democrat Party (SDP) has advocated fiscal austerity (Lopes
& Antunes, 2018). During the European debt crisis, austerity policies implemented by the
20th SDP-led administration saw the imposition of wage cuts on Portuguese citizens. The
SP-led 21st and 22nd administrations from 2015 onwards increased public spending, but
were unable to undertake tax relief (De Giorgi & Santana-Pereira, 2020; Moury et al.,
2021; Teixeira et al., 2019). The pandemic had a severe economic and social impact on
Portugal, and saw fiscal deficits reach 5.8% in 2020. Since the implementation of an
austerity policy in 2011, citizens have repeatedly launched strikes and protests, and
caused social unrest (De Giorgi and Santana-Pereira, 2020; Moury, De Giorgi and Barros,
2020). This sort of social unrest escalated during the pandemic. Rising fuel prices in late-
2021 intensified popular resistance to the government led by Socialist Party (SP). Other
political parties took advantage of this situation and voted against the 2022 budget which
led to the dissolution of Parliament and early parliamentary elections. Regarding inherent
vulnerabilities as the causes of these conflicts, the ruling Portuguese government gave
priority to addressing economic vulnerability. It considered that once the existing
economic problems were dealt with, revenues could boost Portugal’s investment capacity
to purchase resources, recruit new members of the workforce from abroad, upgrade
wages, and thus resolve socio-political vulnerabilities.
Apart from its economic goals, when considering its strategies towards China during the
pandemic, Portugal also aimed to fulfil the requirements of its EU membership and
maintain its alliance with the US. The focus of Portuguese diplomacy since the
establishment of the Republic in 1974 has been toward three axes, namely the EU, the
Atlantic Alliance, and the PSCs (Fernandes, 2018; Silva, 2020; Teixeira, 2010). China
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became an import diplomatic alternative to the EU and the US first after the European
debt crisis (Miguel and Faria, 2020). In the context of the European debt crisis, Chinese
SOEs and private companies were able to acquire large volumes of shares in Portuguese
companies by offering preferential terms during the privatisation process under the
financial intervention of the Troika, consisting of the European Commission, the European
Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (Ribeiro & Cardoso, 2016; Romero,
2017). In the aftermath of the crisis, Portugal accorded strategic importance to China,
but still prioritized the EU and the US. Although China offered markets and provided
investments that Portugal needed, and still needs, Portugal’s trade deficit continued to
grow. Compared to relying more heavily on China, as an EU member-state, Portugal has
a stable source of funds and its main trading partners are all countries within the EU. The
US provides security, and potential military assistance, to Portugal within the framework
of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Furthermore, Portugal has a trade
surplus with the US, and imports Liquid Natural Gas from the US, which is a strategic
energy supply. Nevertheless, Portugal has remained lacking in a significant volume of
investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI).
This article chooses funds in public sector, share purchases in private sector, and Sines
port project as investment-related issues, E-commerce as export-related issues, and 5G
and new energy as competitiveness-related issues. These issues are the key areas in
which US and other EU member-states compete with China in Portugal by offering
alternatives during the Pandemic, and Portugal has different degrees of commitment and
control. Comparing the similarities and differences in Portugal’s strategic choices on these
issues contributes to our distinguishing how the three variables of commitment,
alternative(s) and control have influenced Portugal’s strategies. Basically, except on the
5G issue, where the US has reduced Portugal’s commitment by raising the cost of
Portuguese cooperation with Huawei, Portugal has a high level of commitment to China
on other issues due to its domestic needs. Therefore, Portugal uses control-risk strategy
on 5G issue, while on other issues Portugal combines interest-linkage and balance
strategy due to its high commitment.
4. On FDI
We have noted that on the crucial issue of FDI, Portugal mainly uses an interest-linkage
strategy, combined with a balancing strategy, towards China. The result is that, while
actively receiving Chinese capital, Portugal has also vigorously sought for, and seeks,
other sources of foreign investment. During the pandemic, Portugal had a high
commitment to FDI, worse alternatives within the EU to offers of Chinese investment,
and overall low control. Portugal has a high commitment to Chinese investment because
Chinese investments appear to be a better choice for three reasons. Firstly, despite
having financial support from within the EU, Portugal is still unable to achieve fiscal
balance, and therefore needs investment from outside the EU. EU financial support for
the decade 2000-2010 was mainly invested in infrastructure, and little funds were used
to address other issues related to the improvement of Portugal’s low economy activity
and international competitiveness (Czuriga, 2009; Teixeira & Pinto, 2019). Consequently,
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Portugal has a high exposure to external shocks, as exemplified by the pandemic which
resulted in high fiscal deficits of 5.8% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2021.
Secondly, we note that under existing EU regulations, the available policies for down-
grading wages and borrowing through loans harm Portugal’s economic sustainability. As
an EU member state with no autonomy regarding adjustment of monetary policy and
public debt, Portugal has attempted to achieve competitiveness in exports by down-
grading wages in the labour market (Rathgeb and Tassinari, 2018). Down-grading wages
weakens domestic consumption, and boosts exports at the expense of domestic sales. In
addition, the resulting protests and strikes caused by wage cuts produced production
shut-downs. Besides wage cuts, Portugal has had to borrow to support development
plans, with the result that public debt levels have increased consistently. However,
according to the EU fiscal regime, once Portuguese fiscal deficit exceeds 3%, the EU
mandates the implementation of austerity measures, which may offset the growth
brought by borrowed loans, leading to higher debt and continued economic downturns
(Hancké & Rhodes, 2016). In this way, the institutional framework of the EU favours the
development of export-oriented economies to the detriment of domestic demand-
oriented economies such as Portugal (Molina & Rhodes, 2007; Regan, 2017). Based on
Eurostat’s demographics, with only 2.3% voting weight in the EU Parliament, Portugal
cannot trigger any significant economic regime reforms within EU that might favour
Portugal’s development.
Thirdly, Chinese investments were considered as having the most favourable terms
among other choices during the European debt crisis, and received positive comments
from the Portuguese elites from influential companies and political parties. According to
the CEO of Electricidade de Portugal (EDP), Miguel Stilwell D’Andrade, during their
partnership, China Three Gorges (CTG) assisted EDP in weathering the European debt
crisis. The CTG and EDP jointly identified opportunities for growth, particularly in Latin
America, by investing jointly in hydropower projects, and jointly developed new
technologies. The Portuguese Prime Minister, António Costa, and Former Foreign
Minister, Augusto Silva, considered that China’s economic conduct in Portugal was in line
with Portuguese and EU legal norms. Some political parties — mainly the right-wing
party Centro Democrático Social-Partido Popular and the left-wing party Bloco de
Esquerda — resisted permitting Chinese investments. Their concerns were that issues of
importance to the Portuguese state could be controlled indirectly by a foreign government
if Chinese firms held too many shares in strategic companies. They urged the
government, led by Socialist Party, to exercise prudence in opening the Portuguese
economy to Chinese investment (Gaspar & Ampudia de Haro, 2020). But, overall, those
opposing Chinese investment remained in a minority.
During the pandemic, Portugal has had more investment alternatives in the public sector,
but worse alternatives to Chinese investments in the private sector. In the public sector,
in addition to the regular EU Structural Investment Fund support, in August 2021 Portugal
received from the European Commission €2.2 billion in pre-financing, under the
NextGenerationEU initiative. In the private sector, in the case of EDP, Chinese CTG
remains the largest shareholder, followed by the American enterprise Blackrock with
9.37%. Blackrock has been working to increase its shareholding but thus far has failed
to shake CTG’s leading position. In the case of Bank Millenium Banco Comercial Português
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(BCP), although the Angolan oil company Sonangol, which is the second largest
shareholder, does not want the largest shareholder, Chinese Fosun, to acquire more
shares, Sonangol itself has gone through a restructuring process due to the fall in oil
prices before 2016, and its disorderly investment policy. It is apparent that Portugal has
a low degree of control to be able to reject Chinese investment. The Portuguese
government itself, because of its high debt and deficits, needs EU funds to invest in public
services and cannot renationalise strategic private companies. Foreign capital is unable
to change the dominant shareholder position of Chinese capital. With high commitment,
worse alternatives, and low control of the issue of FDI, Portugal has adopted interest-
linkage and balance strategies. On the one hand, Portugal, in the private sector, permits
the growth of shares held by Chinese enterprises in Portuguese companies. In March
2021, Fosun enlarged its shares in Millenium BCP to 30%. In May 2021, the Chinese
company China Communications Construction Co., Ltd. (CCCC) purchased 32.4% of
Mota-Engil stakes. In the public sector, in October 2020, according to the Portuguese
government, Chinese investors who make gains from the sale of Panda bonds issued by
the Portuguese government in 2021, will continue to be exempt from IRS and IRC (the
income tax that went into effect in the Portuguese tax system on January 1st 1989).
These tax exemptions are used to attract Chinese investors to continue buying
Portuguese national bonds, issued in Renminbi. As a result, according to Banco de
Portugal, the Chinese investments stock in Portugal reached 2,923,01M€ in 2021, an
increase of 8.5% year-on-year. At the same time, Portugal continues to actively search
for other sources of foreign investment.
The Sines port project is a typical case of Portugal’s combination of interest-linkage and
balance strategies towards China during the pandemic. The Portuguese Foreign Minister,
Augusto Santos Silva, has actively encouraged the US and other EU countries to
participate in the bidding, stating that the project will allow the US to increase its gas
exports to Europe, and reduce the energy dependence of Portugal and the EU on Russia.
But Silva has also said that Portugal will keep seeking to attract Chinese investment to
expand trade and develop tourism (Wise, 2020). After the visit of US Energy Secretary
Dan Brouillette to the Sines port in September 2020, Portuguese Infrastructure Minister
Pedro Nuno Santos said that the US interest and potential investment in the Sines port
are an opportunity that Portugal must seize. However, thus far the Sines port has not
received any investment from any Chinese or American companies, although on April
18th 2022, an international company, consisting of a partnership between the Portuguese
Madoqua Renewables, the Dutch company Power2X, and the Danish company
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), announced an investment of 1 billion euros to
implement the project titled Madoqua Power2X in the Industrial and Logistics Zone in the
Sines port, with the aim of producing green hydrogen and green ammonia.
5. On export-related issues related to E-commerce
Generally, in terms of export expansion, Portugal accords significant importance to the
Chinese market. In fact, compared to the EU, China is a small trade partner for Portugal
since its main trading partners are member states within the EU. The weight of the intra-
EU countries exports and imports increased in 2020, reaching 71.4% (+0.7 p.p.
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compared to 2019) and 74.7% (+0.9 p.p. compared to 2019) respectively, according to
the European National Statistical Institute (NSI, 2021). Compared to the US, China does
not provide Portugal with any strategic energy resource but rather with products for daily
life, while it is the US that provides LNG. China offers no security support to Portugal
while the US does so within NATO. Portugal’s trade deficit with China is increasing and
reached 2,500 million euros in 2020 while the US was Portugal’s 2nd largest trade surplus
country in 2020. But, as already mentioned, even these trade revenues are not sufficient
to cover its deficits, and since 1974 Portugal has only once demonstrated a trade surplus,
in 2019. The present trade network, with its high dependence on the market within the
EU hinders resilient construction, and the Portuguese government needs to diversify its
export markets. Portugal’s exports to China are increasing, and Chinese tourists,
although not perhaps as numerous as could be wished, rank first in terms of their
spending in Portugal. For this reason, the Chinese market demonstrates the potential to
enable Portugal to achieve a balance of trade surplus at some point in the future. During
the pandemic, Portugal’s overall exports fell by 10.3% in 2020 mainly due to weakened
intra-EU trade (NSI, 2021: 9). Looking back over the last ten years, Portugal’s trade
deficit reached its highest level, after 2010, in December 2021. In this context, the trade
volume between Portugal and China has grown against the trend of the global backdrop.
Portugal’s exports to China increased by 64% in the first five months of 2021 compared
to the same period in 2020, and by 18.3% compared to the same period in 2019, the
year before the pandemic (Falardo and Sequeira, 2021). China is thus a market that
offers a positive possibility to enlarge the volume of Portugal’s exports.
During the pandemic, the most important export-related issue was E-commerce, for the
global lockdown policy encouraged the development of this sector. The WTO has stated
that e-commerce is expected to save the global economy. On the e-commerce issue,
according to the World Economic Forum, the epidemic has made e-commerce platforms
in China grow faster than anywhere else in the world. In 2020, the China’s share of online
sales in all retail sales increased to a projected 44%, whilst the UK and US reached 27.7%
and 14.5% respectively (Buchholz, 2021; Falardo & Sequeira, 2021). Portugal has a high
commitment to Chinese e-commerce platforms, as one means to expand exports to the
Chinese market. Portugal currently has Amazon as an alternative to Alibaba. Alibaba and
Amazon each offer different advantages. Alibaba’s C2C mode and internationalisation
strategies help the platform to reach more consumers both within and outside China.
Amazon has a better cloud computing system, i.e. Amazon Web Services (AWS)
(Abdulrahman & Oreijah, 2022; Wu & Gereffi, 2018). AWS cloud services are more
developed than Alibaba cloud services in massive data calculation and open storage
(Wang, 2021). Overall, Portugal has a low control over its e-commerce. Two officials of
the Portuguese Agency for Investment and External Trade (AICEP) stated that, during
the pandemic, the inability of Portuguese companies to connect to their customers was
hampered by an underdeveloped online sales model, which hindered their
internationalisation (Falardo and Sequeira, 2021, p. 18). Portugal successfully adopted
both interest-linkage and balance strategies on e-commerce issues. On the one hand,
the Portuguese Trade & Investment Agency (AICEP) acted to improve the sale of
Portuguese agricultural products on Alibaba, and invited Alibaba to visit Portugal and
offer e-commerce trainings. Specifically, in October 2021, the AICEP negotiated with
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Alibaba to enlarge the sale of Portuguese agricultural products, diversifying product
categories and sales destinations (Dinheiro Vivo/Lusa, 2021). In February 2022, a
Portuguese private commercial association, the Portugal-China Chamber of Commerce
and Industry (CCILC), jointly with AICEP, organised a visit by Alibaba representatives to
Portugal, aimed at involving more Portuguese companies in the Chinese marketplace. In
May 2022, Alibaba gave a free course in English intitled “Alibaba Netpreneur Masterclass”
through AICEP to Portuguese, Spanish, and Italian entrepreneurs. On the other hand,
the Portuguese Ministry of Economy and Digital Transformation signed a MoU with
Amazon Web Services (AWS), in preparing the "More Digital powered by AWS" initiative,
which aims to accelerate small business growth with AWS Cloudstart, train the next
generation of cloud builders in Portugal with AWS Educate and AWS Academy, and
support a start-up community in Portugal with AWS Activate. Interestingly, AICEP has
also cooperated with Amazon in providing training webinars to assist Portuguese
businessmen in using the platform for internationalization. In this way, Portugal is
successful in deepening its interdependence simultaneously with both China and the US,
and maximising the benefits of cooperation with both e-commerce platforms.
6. On competitiveness-related issues
As concluding examples, we take renewable energy and 5G as two cases that exhibit the
phenomenon of competitive-relatedness. On renewable energy, Portugal exhibits a high
commitment, has equal alternatives, and a high control on this issue. Portugal’s high
commitment stems from the fact that it is one of the European countries most affected
by climate change. Climate change phenomena such as rising temperatures, shifting
rainfall patterns, rising average sea levels, and extreme weather events, exacerbate the
pressure on Portugal’s coastline, as well as bringing threats of fire, drought, and floods
(Government of Portugal, 2020). Portugal has worse alternatives to China. China is the
world’s largest investor in renewable energy while Portugal possesses advanced
technologies. As previously noted, the base of cooperation between EDP and CTG is that
EDP contributes technology in a joint research project and expands its reputation in
exploring third markets (especially in Africa and Latin America) while CTG provides funds
to invest jointly in third markets. In 2013, EDP and CTG jointly acquired shares in the
companies that own the rights to develop the Cachoeira Caldeirão hydroelectric project
(219 MW) and the Jari hydroelectric project (373 MW). Although CTG holds a large stake
in EDP, the two companies have each acquired shares in other companies in Brazil and
Chile to develop their markets. In this way, both sides benefit from this cooperation to
develop their internationalization, and as funds are the goal of EDP, Blackrock as the
second largest shareholder is a worse alternative to CTG.
Portugal has high control of its renewable energy, and has established technological
priority in renewable energy. EDP is the fourth largest wind power company in the world
and the largest hydroelectric company in Europe, with operations in thirteen countries,
including Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Greece, and the United States. The European
Scalable Offshore Renewable Energy Project (EU-SCORES) will participate in Portugal
with a total investment of €45 million to create the world’s first offshore energy array,
combining wave energy with offshore wind energy. China, for its part, gives priority to
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developing new renewable technology and industry, particularly with wind power and
smart grids. This is an initiative to reduce China’s dependence on strategic energy
imports, and to promote China’s image as a responsible global power in combating
climate changes (Zhao et al., 2020; Zhao et al., 2011). China maintains that in the next
five years, its share of non-fossil energy, in total primary energy consumption, will
increase to around 20%. This is to say, Portugal has the capacity for high-end renewable
energy technologies, as well as the researchers to undertake independent research, but
lacks financial support. China seeks breakthroughs in renewable energy technologies and
has the capacity to invest. Hence, Portugal has relatively high control in the issue. The
main Portuguese actors who cooperate with China on renewable energy are EDP and
REN. During the pandemic, EDP, as a representative of Portugal, made use of interest-
linkage and balance strategies at the same time. On the one hand, EDP renewed the
strategic partnership agreement with CTG in December 2021, and continued to jointly
invest with CTG in Latin American and Africa. On the other hand, EDP’s renewable energy
arm, known as EDP Renovável (EDPR), acquired a Singaporean company active in the
solar energy sector, Sunseap, thus diversifying its alternatives to CTG while exploring
Asian markets.
On the 5G issue, Portugal has low commitment, equal alternatives, and low control.
Portugal’s low commitment to 5G originates in external pressure that increased the cost
of its working with the Chinese company Huawei on 5G in the commercial sector. Portugal
needed to improve competitiveness in the 5G area and Huawei was seen as the leader
of 5G developments. However, the US maintained pressure on the Portuguese
government from 2019 onwards, linking 5G to security issues. In December 2019, Mike
Pompeo warned Portugal that Huawei threatened national security and invades privacy.
US government spokesman Robert Strayer, on his first visit to Portugal in February 2020,
warned that Huawei was suspected of human rights violations in Xinjiang, and that
Huawei could steal confidential NATO data, as well as the daily data of Portuguese
residents. Finally, the US Ambassador to Portugal George Glass, in September 2020,
threatened that the US would consider stopping LNG exports to Europe through the Sines
port if Portugal continued to cooperate commercially with Huawei in 5G.
Portugal has equal alternatives to Huawei 5G after 2021. In December 2021, the world-
renowned data analytics and consulting company in the ICT industry, GlobalData released
its research titled 5G Mobile Core: Competitive Landscape Assessment. According to their
findings, Huawei’s 5G Core portfolio was the strongest, and it was rated as the “leader”
among all the 5G core product producers from the world’s major telecom equipment
vendors such as Cisco, Ericsson, Nokia, and ZET. However, only months later, in April
2022, GlobalData released a new report that identified the company American Affirmed
Unity as the “leader” among 5G core products, followed by the American companies
Mavenir, Casa Systems, and the South Korean company Samsung. It remains at present
unclear whether these companies have caught up with Huawei’s 5G advanced
technology, or the US ban against Huawei has prevented it from being included in the
GlobalData rankings of April 2022. The result is that it is noticeable that Portugal has low
control on the 5G issue, facing a lack of competitive companies, products, and
professionals. According to a report made by the European 5G Observatory in July 2021,
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Portugal and Lithuania were the only two EU countries without 5G services at the end of
June that year.
Portugal has adopted a control-risk strategy on the 5G issue. After sustained US pressure,
the Portuguese Infrastructure Minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, revealed on July 30th, 2020,
that a group created by the Portuguese government to assess risks and cybersecurity
issues relating to 5G had completed its work, and had not drawn any conclusions directed
against any supplier, including Huawei (Gonçalves, 2020). In responding to US threats
linking LNG to Huawei 5G, the former Portuguese Foreign Minister, Augusto Silva, and
President Marcelo, stated that Portuguese government would take its own stance
(Lusa/PÚBLICO, 2020). Finally, the decision not to take Huawei into consideration for the
installation of 5G networks came from Portugal’s three largest operators, namely Altice,
Vodafone, and NOS, but not from the government (Moreira & Malta, 2020). In this way,
the Portuguese government was able to maintain an ambiguous attitude, without taking
any clear stance. This control-risk strategy does not harm the US-Portugal alliance at the
governmental level and leaves space for domestic non-state actors to maintain their
cooperation with Huawei. Portugal makes efforts to avoid any escalation of tensions, but
of the six telecom operators licensed to operate 5G in Portugal, only Vodafone Portugal
has signed a 5G supply contract with US-based Mavenir. Altice and NOS have declared
that they will not use Huawei 5G core, but they and the other three telecom operators,
which are Dixarobil, Novo and Dense Air, have thus far not decided upon the provider of
their 5G Core products. As an indicator of future trends, it can be noted that the
University of Aveiro in Portugal recently jointly constructed with Huawei a 5G+AI
Networks Reliability Centre (5GAINER), transforming the entire Huawei 5G issue from
being a commercial problem to a technological issue.
7. Conclusion
During the pandemic, politicians and researchers have agreed that that economic
setbacks Portugal experienced required increased investment, export, and
competitiveness. These were the three key issues to address Portugal’s vulnerabilities,
and the Portuguese government appears to have accepted these issues as its primary
goals. Three strategies were adopted, namely an interest-linkage strategy to attract
Chinese investments and gain market access, a balance strategy to obtain alternative
support within EU and from the US, and a control-risk strategy to avoid conflict between
the US and China. By doing so, without noticeable overt friction, Portugal managed to
maximize its interests, control US-China tension regarding Portugal, and intensify
simultaneously its partnership with China, its alliance with US, and maintain its adherence
to the unity of the EU. During the pandemic, Portugal has used material power resources
to develop interest linkages and has not mobilized “normative power” against China. For
example, when down-scaling its involvement with Huawei, the Portuguese government
has avoided discussion of political issues regarding Huawei as a Chinese enterprise, or
suggested that involvement with Huawei poses any economic threat to Portugal’s
autonomy. Portugal has rather returned cooperation with the world leader to the field of
technical development, and not noticeably exerted any normative pressure on China in
an attempt to influence Chinese actions. Instead, by avoiding taking any clear stance
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between China and Western allies, Portugal manages to continue to project its image as
an EU member-state and US ally while maintaining a friendly attitude towards China. It
has cautiously, yet successfully, availed itself of power resources from all parties
involved, through its balanced diplomatic relations, and managed to take steps to
maximize its interests. In other words, Portugal has provided us with an example of the
use of relational power resources during the pandemic to achieve its goals.
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