OBSERVARE

Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

GREED, GRIEVANCE, LEADERSHIP AND EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS IN THE

INITIATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE CIVIL WAR IN ANGOLA

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

ricardorps2000@yahoo.com

Assistant Professor at Autonomous University of Lisbon (UAL, Portugal) and integrated researcher

at OBSERVARE. He has a PhD from the International Institute of Social Studies (ISS) Erasmus

University of Rotterdam (EUR) in the Netherlands. He was part of the Research School in Peace

and Conflict (PRIO / NTNU / UiO) in Norway and associated with the African Studies Center (CEA)

Lisbon University Institute (IUL) in Portugal as a researcher on conflict. He has a Master of

Science in Development Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) of the

University of London, a post-graduation diploma of advanced studies in African Studies and a

Bachelor (Hons) degree in Business Administration, both from the Lisbon University Institute.

Abstract

Understanding the initiation of conflict is fundamental for the success of efforts in conflict

prevention. The validity of the mechanisms of the “Greed and Grievance” model, alongside

leadership and external interventions are tested in four periods of initiation and

intensification of the conflict in Angola. All mechanisms are present but their relative

relevance varies throughout the conflict. Among the mechanisms identified in each period

the most relevant in the Cold War period are the international and regional interventions in

1961 and 1975 and in the post-Cold War period, the “greed” factors in 1992 (oil and

diamonds, poverty and war capital) and the UNITA leadership of Jonas Savimbi in 1998. The

case study provides evidence that “greed” and “grievance” can be interlinked (such as in

1992) and confirms the relevance of leadership and external interventions mechanisms.

Keywords

Africa, Angola, Conflict, Greed, Grievance, Leadership, External interventions

How to cite this article

Sousa, Ricardo Real P. (2016). "Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in

the initiation and intensification of the civil war in Angola". JANUS.NET e-journal of

International Relations, Vol. 7, Nº 1, May-October 2016. Consulted [online] on the date of

last consultation, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/pt_vol7_n1_art

Article received on 16 February 2016 and accepted for publication on 12 April 2016

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

GREED, GRIEVANCE, LEADERSHIP AND EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS IN THE

INITIATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE CIVIL WAR IN ANGOLA1

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

Introduction

Several approaches have been developed to explain the initiation of Civil War. The

“Greed and Grievance” model popularized by Paul Collier attracted intense scrutiny

from researchers.

The model is based on a rational choice approach and contrasts the economic

opportunities in which people are able to organize and finance a rebellion (“greed”), i.e.

rebellion as a criminal enterprise, with social and political motives making people want

to rebel (“grievances”), i.e. socio-economic injustices felt by a social group. The model

is operationalized through a series of proxy variables. The opportunities of would be

rebels are: a1) the funding possibilities available, which can be revenues from natural

resources, remittances from diasporas or support from hostile governments; a2) the

recruitment costs of rebels, determined by alternative income levels; 3) the

accumulated war capital; a4) the capacity of the government to control the territory

measured in terms of how the terrain is appropriate for rebels (forest and mountains)

or how disperse the populations are, and; a5) the social cohesion in society and how

ethnic and religious factors facilitate the establishment and maintenance of conflict

groups. The grievances of would be rebels are: b1) religious and ethnic hatred between

groups; b2) the level of political repression; b3) the political exclusion of groups, and;

b4) the income inequality in the country (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004).

The application of this model to the Civil Wars between 1960 and 1999 concludes that

the main mechanism in Civil War initiation is “greed”, in the desire to acquire economic

benefits and therefore the perceived capacity to organise and maintain a rebellion. The

main “greed” factors are the existence of natural resources (specifically oil),

remittances from the diaspora, the low recruitment costs of fighters, military advantage

in terms of dispersed populations, and the war capital existing in the country (in time

since the last conflict) (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004). The only significant grievance factor

is political exclusion through ethnic dominance, at the same time that ethnic and

religious diversity decreases chances of conflict if ethnic dominance is avoided. Finally,

the size of the population is positively associated with conflict onset2 (these results are

summarized in the column “results” in table 1). Fearon and Laitin (2003) reached

similar results regarding the relevance of “greed” factors in explaining the initiation of

Civil Wars. But they consider that the low income variable is a proxy of lower state

capacity to repress rebellion and consequently lower costs for the rebels to sustain a

rebellion rather than a proxy of lower recruitment costs of fighters, as considered by

Collier and Hoeffler (2004). For Fearon (2005), if oil predicts Civil Wars, it is not so

much by being an entrepreneurial mechanism (as a tempting “prize” for those who

control the state) but mostly because oil producers have low state capacities to repress

1 The review of the text was funded by national funds through FCT, Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia,

as part of OBSERVARE project, reference UID/CPO/04155/2013. Text reviewed by Carolina Peralta.

2 This is interpreted more as a greed factor by increasing the likelihood of having secession-seeking

population sub-groups.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

rebellion relative to their levels of income per capita. Oil rich countries have less

incentive to develop the state apparatus required for revenue collection.

Following similar rationalist-positivist approaches, the validity of the model was tested

with quantitative and qualitative assessment. Quantitative analysis by Hegre and

Sambanis (2006) confirmed several of the model’s results, including the

entrepreneurial (Collier and Hoeffler, 2004) and state repression claims (Fearon and

Laitin, 2003).

The model was later reviewed to consider that it is the financial and military feasibility

of conflict that increases the likelihood of Civil War initiation. Feasibility is mainly

measured in terms of: the country being a former French colony and therefore under

the security umbrella of France, making rebellion less likely to succeed; the proportion

of young male in the country who are potential fighters, and; a mountainous terrain

that makes rebel military action feasible (Collier, Hoeffler and Rohner, 2009).

Therefore, the issue is not so much if there is a “grievance” motive, or if there is a

“greed” opportunity, instead if insurrection is feasible.

We test in this paper the original “greed” and “grievance” model for three reasons. One

is that the feasibility factors are difficult to test within a single case study, as they don’t

vary significantly across time. A second reason is that the results of the feasibility

model reconfirm the results of the original model in the sense that “greed” factors are

still significant and “grievance” are not (Collier, Hoeffler and Rohner, 2009). A third

reason is that there is no agreement on the “greed” and “grievance” debate and this

debate has not been replaced by a “feasibility” debate.

The current “greed” and “grievance” debate focuses on which of the mechanisms

explains the initiation of Civil Wars, the epistemological foundations of the studies and

the policy implications of the results.

The “grievance” argument can be traced back to the “relative deprivation” theory that

proposed that psychological mechanisms associated with a frustration of not meeting

material expectations are at the root of conflict initiation (Davies, 1962; Gurr, 1970).

Tilly (1978) contested this argument considering that grievance factors are widespread

in society and conflict is not present in all societies. Instead, it is the capacity to mount

a rebellion, determined by access to material and organisational resources, that

differentiates societies where Civil War is initiated or not. With Gurr’s work (1970,

2000) on ethnic conflict, group level grievances gain another capacity to explain the

initiation of conflict.

In the tradition of the “grievance” argument, it has been suggested that rebellion

occurs in cases of multidimensional horizontal inequalities (Stewart, 2002). Horizontal

inequalities occur when social exclusion and poverty and identity or regional boundaries

take place simultaneously. Buhaug, Cederman and Gleditsch (2014) used horizontal

inequalities as a proxy for inequality, instead of the GINI coefficient used by Collier and

Hoeffler (2004) and Fearon and Laitin (2003), which reflects vertical inequalities -

inequality among values of a frequency distribution of income, economic interpersonal

inequality. They found that horizontal inequalities are an important factor in rebellions

and a better predictor of rebellion than vertical inequalities.3

3 Similar results were found by Cederman, Weidmann and Gleditsch (2011) and Østby (2008).

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

The qualitative analysis of the model through a series of case studies (Collier and

Sambanis, 2005) confirms its main results. Nevertheless, it also identifies a series of

limitations and reflections, some of which this case study on Angola is particularly

suited to investigate.

One limitation of the model is the absence of leadership as a factor. This is mainly due

to the fact that leadership is hard to quantify. There are two theories on the role of

leadership in mobilizing ethnic groups. One, from rationalist and constructivist

accounts, suggest that there is a social construction of identity by political elites in

order to mobilize and manipulate ethnic groups into fighting (Gurr 2000). These differ

from the primordial perspectives, which consider that there is an innate conflict

propensity in ethnic identity (Brubaker 1995).

Another limitation is the absence of an account of the role of external interventions.

The Collier and Hoeffler (2004) theory uses a Cold War dummy variable to proxy for

this effect, finding no statistically significant relationship4. But this variable does not

capture the nuanced effect of exogenous variables on Civil War. The Cold War had

different periods of intensity, between the post-Second World War and 1991, when it

ended with different levels of involvement of external actors. Also, it had different

expressions at international and regional level. At the regional level, there can be

diffusion and contagion effects. Diffusion occurs through demonstration, where political

events in one country inspire political action in another. Contagion occurs through:

common ethnic groups across borders; accumulation of war capital (for instances small

arms) in specific regions; refugee movements, or external interventions (Sambanis,

2005). The effect of external interventions on Civil War is one of the understudied

relationships in the literature (Sambanis, 2002). External interventions support the

fighting parties, affecting their propensity to fight. Military interventions increase

directly the military capacity to fight, and economic interventions decrease the

coordinating costs of sustaining a rebellion by increasing the likelihood of success

(Elbadawi and Sambanis, 2000). Diplomatic interventions are normally intended to find

a non-violent solution to the conflict and through information sharing they can increase

the chances of reaching a political solution. Generally speaking, evidence has been

found of the escalatory effect of military interventions and de-escalatory effect of

economic and diplomatic interventions in Civil Wars (Regan and Meachum 2014, Sousa,

2015).

These limitations can be contextualized in broader epistemological considerations. It

has been argued that the rational choice approach and methodological individualism of

these studies fail to take into account social, relational and historical aspects (Cramer,

2002). Furthermore, statistical inference is distinct from causality and positivism can

fall into tautological explanations of the phenomenon, based on datasets detached from

the meanings that events have on the ground (Korf, 2006).

A main reflection of Sambanis (2005) is that one should be looking at “greed” and

“grievance” as alternative shades of the same phenomena, and not as competing

explanations. A few mechanisms can be considered to illustrate this hypothesis. For

instance, functional political institutions may decrease political grievances but at the

same time good economic performance can promote the stability of institutions and, in

4 The other exogenous variable used is remittances from the diaspora, but, for data reasons, this is limited

to remittances from the USA.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

this way, affect grievances. Also state failure or government illegitimacy leads to

domestic anarchy, in which case “greed” can be considered the pursuit of survival by

groups in society.

Finally, the relevance of this debate can be apprehended on its policy implications on

how to prevent Civil War. The “greed” explanation puts a focus on: economic growth

and diversification; control and management of natural resources, and; state strength

and external interventions to improve its capacity. “Grievance” explanations highlight:

the indivisibility of some issues, such as identity, ethnicity or religion; the need for

ethnic inclusion and fairer distribution of wealth in the country; mediated solutions

among parties, and external interventions in order to secure the commitment to peace

agreements.

Inspired on the qualitative work of Collier and Sambanis (2005), the main contribution

of this paper is two-folded. One is to test the “greed” and “grievance” hypotheses as

alternative but also complementary explanations of Civil War alongside the normally

omitted variables of leadership and exogenous effects at international and regional

level, in the form of external interventions (or processes of diffusion). Another is to

apply the model to an historical case study on Angola, which has not been done before.

The Angolan Civil War spanned from the war of independence through the Cold War

and up to the post-Cold War era. It had more than 500,000 deaths, tens of thousands

of persons mutilated by anti-personnel mines and the displacement of approximately

4.1 million people.

This study follows the definition of Civil War advanced by Gleditsch et al (2002),

whereby it consists of a contested incompatibility regarding a government and/or

territory with the use of force by parties, and where at least one of them is the state or

government, resulting in at least 25 deaths in battle5.

The conceptualization of variables, in this case the dependent variable of Civil War, is

one of the challenges in quantitative studies (Sambanis, 2004). Broadly speaking, in

the case of Angola there were two types of war: the war of colonial independence

initiated in 1961, also called extra-systemic war, and an internationalized Civil War

since independence, between 1975 and 2002. The war of colonial independence has

particularities that differentiate it from the subsequent war (the issues and parties

involved) which could merit a separate analysis. But because the original analysis of

Collier and Hoeffler (2004) includes these types of war, it will also be considered. The

Civil War initiated after independence is internationalized because it had military

involvement of external actors. The question here is to consider if relapses into conflict

after periods of peace following a peace agreement should be considered a new Civil

War or not. In Angola the relapses had the same conflict parties fighting over the same

issue and therefore it does not fit completely into a classification of a new Civil War.

5 All the classifications used in the paper and dates of initiation/intensification of conflict are from this

source, unless otherwise identified. The periods and sub-periods used in this paper significantly match

those of Sambanis (2004) and Collier and Hoeffler (2004) with small differences of one year due to the

level of violence considered: Sambanis (2004) and Collier and Hoeffler (2004) consider the second period

to end in May 1991, the year of the Bicesse peace accords, even if technically both 1991 and 1992 are

considered as conflict years in Gleditsch et al (2002); Sambanis (2004) considers the third period to end

in 1994, and 1995 to be a year with very low violence not reaching the threshold to be considered in

conflict, while for Collier and Hoeffler (2004) the conflict that started in 1992 only ends in 2002;

Sambanis (2004) considers the fourth period to start in 1997, due to the escalation of violence in that

year.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

Also the model of the “initiation” of Civil Wars aims to identify the key mechanisms

associated with a qualitative change on the political processes in a country, where

actors decide to move from non-violent conflict to violent conflict. The mechanisms

present in these cases are not necessarily the same as in situations of relapse. In

relapses, the fighting group and war capital already exist and this can have a decisive

effect on what factors explain Civil War initiation. This path-dependence is difficult to

analyse and is also present in the transition from the war of independence to

internationalized Civil War, where one can find some of the same fighting parties even

if fighting against a different party (different dyads). For these reason the analysis will

consider two initiations, the war of independence and the internationalized Civil War,

and, in the latter war, two intensifications of the conflict

Four periods are identified in the Civil War in Angola between 1961 and 20026. The first

period begins in February 1961 with the initiation of the war of independence against

Portugal and extends up to July 1974, when a ceasefire is signed between Portugal and

the nationalist movements. The second period begins in November 1975, when the

internationalized Civil War initiates and ends with the Bicesse accords in May 1991. The

third period starts with the intensification of conflict after the September 1992 elections

and ends in 1995 when the conflict intensity decreases significantly. The final period

ranges from March 1998, when the conflict restarts, to April 2002, when it ends7.

Table 1 resumes the values of the proxy variables of the Collier and Hoeffler (2004)

model for the years closest to conflict initiation in the period between 1960 and 1995.

It compares the values for Angola with the averages for all countries, countries where a

Civil War did not start and countries where a Civil War started. In Angola, the main

“greed” indicators are propitious to conflict initiation: for funding, natural resources are

above the average and the recruitment costs are below the average8 of the values for

countries where a Civil War started; at the same time, the possibilities for state control

are diminished as both geographical dispersion and population are higher than the

average in countries where a Civil War started, and; the grievance indicators are less

favourable to conflict initiation as the social fractionalization is high throughout but

without ethnic dominance.

The historical analysis in this paper identifies both “greed” and “grievance” factors in

moments of the initiation or intensification of Civil War in Angola9. It suggests that

exogenous variables for international and regional dimensions and the endogenous

variable of leadership improve the model´s explanatory power. The article follows a

chronological order of the four moments of initiation or intensification of Civil War, with

a description and analysis of the “greed”, “grievance” and exogenous dynamics. It then

proceeds to analyse the leadership dynamics, which is better understood across

periods.

6 This article does not analyse the Cabinda conflict, which occurs at the same time with similar but in many

cases particular dynamics.

7 Collier and Hoeffler (2004) consider the Civil War in Angola to have started in 1961, 1975 and 1992 and

ongoing in 1999, the last year of the dataset. Because 1996 and 1997 are years not classified in conflict

by Gleditsch et al (2002), 1998 is added here as another intensification of the conflict.

8 Except for higher economic growth in 1965 (not shown in table) and 1998.

9 Because for Angola there is no data on GINI and the horizontal inequalities indicators are non-variant in

the period, the evidence of the grievance is based on case studies.

OBSERVARE

Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Table 1: Greed and Grievance model factors 1960, 1975, 1990 and 1995

Notes: Data is from Collier and Hoeffler (2004) and follows the 5-year interval of the dataset. Years reported are the closest to the initiation or intensification of

conflict in 1961, 1975, 1991 and 1998. Empty cells are missing data and the column “Results” identifies if the proxy is statistically significant (SIG) (at either 1%, 5%

or 10% level) and the direction of the effect: increasing (+) or decreasing (-) the likelihood of Civil War initiation. NS means No Significance and in one case the p

value is reported. Definition of the variables can be found in the original paper. The main objective of the table is to compare Angola and other countries and not the

individual values. For instance, population is reported as natural log as used in the original paper, the emigrant variable is here multiplied by 1000 in order to have a

more readable value. “No CW St” means countries where no Civil War started in the period (five years subsequent to the year identified) and “CW St” means

countries where a Civil War starts in the period. *1 - Results of most models tested, but not all; *2 - Significant in one combined model; and *3 - Variables identified

are the ones reported in the independent models. Some model’s variables were not reported in Collier and Hoeffler´s (2004) tables due to lack of significance, these

are: a4) proportion of forests, population density and population in urban areas; b2) political openness, and; b4) ratio of top-to-bottom quintiles of income.

OBSERVARE

Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

The beginning of the independence war in 1961

In the early sixties, the socio-economic structure of Angola was typically colonial with

industrial output representing only a low proportion of its Gross Domestic Product

(GDP). There was a small white minority living mainly in the capital which controlled

the local political sphere but dependent on the metropolis10. Another minority were the

creoles and assimilated blacks with citizenship rights, who worked mostly in the public

and trade sectors11. The remaining population of four million and seven hundred

thousand were all of Bantu origin and belonged mostly to one of the three dominant

ethno-linguistic groups, the Mbundu, the Ovimbundu and Bakongo.

The Mbundu, predominantly from the centre and north region12 would, together with

the urban creoles, become the main support base of the MPLA – the Popular Movement

for the Liberation of Angola. The group is associated with the Methodist religion and the

urban economy of state employment. The Ovimbundu, mainly from the central

plateau13, are associated with the UNITA – the National Union for the Total

Independence of Angola – and are mainly of the Congregational church, linked to the

trade associated with the rail road. Finally, the Bakongo14 from the northern region are

also present in the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville) and in the Democratic Republic of Congo

(DRC). The group is associated with the FNLA – the National Front for the Liberation of

Angola –, belongs mainly to the Baptist church and is connected to the coffee

production (Birmingham, 2006). The main and sometimes sole common political

denominator of these three groups was Angola’s independence.

Although there had been rebellions in the history of Angola, no new social and

economic grievances or economic opportunities developed in this period that could

explain the initiation of conflict. Instead, what is specific to this period are changes

occurring in the international context of the Cold War, mainly: the early pro-nationalism

of the Kennedy administration in the United States of America (USA)15, and, in the

regional environment, the year of African independence in 1960, in particular the

independence of the Congo (later called the DRC)16.

In this propitious international and regional environment, in the beginning of 1961 a

sequence of events led to the initiation of the conflict. The first event in January

occurred when the Mbundu attacked mainly the representatives and buildings of the

cotton industry, capitalizing on the complains over forced labour and the cotton

production policies, which involved forced production of cotton, state control of the

market and appropriation of land (Birmingham, 2006)17.

10 173.000 in 1960.

11 About 54,000 in 1960 and 30,000 in 1950 respectively.

12 About 24 percent of population.

13 About 32 percent of population.

14 About 32 percent of the population.

15 Up to 1962 when the pro-European thesis wins over an Africanist position in the White House (Rodrigues,

2004)

16 Some of the contemporary events are: Egypt’s independence in 1951, Bandung conference for self-

determination and autonomous government of colonized people in 1955, the All-Africa Peoples Conference

with delegates from the independence movements held in Accra in 1958 and in Tunis in 1960, but

significantly the independence of 17 countries in Africa in 1960.

17 These complaints had already been associated with revolts in 1915 and 1945, although at the time the

Portuguese regime had the capacity to control them. The only other period with revolts occurred in the

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

In the following month of February, in the capital of Luanda, a group failed an attempt

to free nationalist political prisoners, where some of the group’s members would belong

to the MPLA in the future. In its aftermath there was severe repression in the city by

police and armed civilians. This revolt can be linked to the grievances of creoles and

mixed race urban population, especially regarding the discriminatory public sector

policies implemented since the 1950s due to the increased influx of Portuguese

settlers18 (Hodges, 2001, Birmingham, 2006).

The third event occured in March 1961 in the coffee areas of Bakongo North (Uige),

from where the rebellion would spread violently. In this case, not only were white

farmers and their families attacked but also mestiços and migrant black workers -

Ovimbundu originating from the south (Spikes, 1993). These were seen both as

collaborating with the colonizers (Birmingham, 1999) and the reason for the low wages

prevailing in the region (Cramer, 2006), where significant frustration existed over the

expropriation of northern Angolan coffee farmers (Cramer, 2002). Holden Roberto,

leader of the then UPA – the Union of the People of Angola19, claimed responsibility for

the rural insurrection, which occurred at the same time he was travelling to New York

to discuss the self-determination of Angola at the United Nations (Spikes, 1993).

In contrast both to the Belgians (the colonisers of the neighbouring country from where

the insurgents of UPA came and which had its own independence just months before)

and to the political landscape of the time, the Portuguese administration did not

negotiate and, despite the dictatorship facing one of its most challenging periods, the

regime reinforced its colonial policy and increased its repressive capacities in the

colony. At the same time, a policy was started to “win the hearts” of the peoples

governed and internationally the Lajes “card” (strategic important military bases for the

USA located in the Azores islands) was played in order to ease international pressure

for decolonization.

The model and the initiation of conflict in 1961

Most of the economic opportunity factors were not present in 1961 when the war of

independence started. Unprocessed resources were significant in the volume of exports,

although oil was not the main resource. Coffee was the main export with 36 percent,

which, together with other unprocessed agricultural goods, amounted to 56 percent of

the total export value in 1961, while oil exports represented 20 percent of exports

(Ferreira, 2006). In any of the four periods under analysis, there is no data on diaspora

in the USA. Nevertheless, the qualitative literature rarely refers to the role of the

Angola’s diaspora in funding the rebellion, making single references to the political

exiles in Lisbon, Brazzaville and Conakry in the 1960s. At the same time, Angola had no

war capital and there was not a large ethnic group dominating the country. Instead,

there was a minority of settlers’ dominance, therefore a case of political grievance of

the Bantu population.

beginning of the century in the period of Portuguese consolidation of control over the territory and were

associated with the Ovimbundu (1902 and 1904) and Bakongo (1913 and 1916) kingdoms’ resistance.

(Spikes, 1993).

18 From 80.000 in 1950, the settler population increased to 170.000 in 1960 and about 300.000 at

independence in 1975 (Pereira, 1994).

19 Which would later become the FNLA.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

The first attempt of insurrection in Luanda was not successful, mainly due to the state’s

capacity in controlling an area with high concentration of population, resulting in the

insurgents’ refuge in the dense Dembo forest in the Northeast of Luanda (George,

2005). The conflict was mainly initiated in a rural setting of a vast region with a

dispersed population by a group who share the Bakongo identity. Also, the insurrects

had similar economic grievances regarding agricultural and labour policies in the coffee

sector, which translated into low income per capita and low male secondary school

enrolment. Due to the economic structure, the prize associated with taking over the

state was small because it was directly dependent on the same low wages in the

agriculture sector, compared to a situation where income would come mainly from off

shore oil. Therefore, the financial incentive for rebellion can be found abroad.

The fact that the leadership of UPA was based in Leopoldville and that the DRC had

recently become independent, significantly contributes to a diffusion and contagion

thesis. Diffusion related to the demonstration effect of DRC independence. Contagion

related to the origins of the insurgents and agitators, most likely Bakongo living in the

North of Angola as well as in the neighbouring country. The nationalist political

awareness of an emigrated elite was supported by the regional and international

landscape, favourable to independence movements with both the DRC and the USA

supporting the UPA.20

In sum, the colonial context with political grievances of the population, ethnic-based

grievances over economic inequalities, dispersed population making it more difficult for

the state to control insurgencies, and the cohesion of insurgent groups, which

decreased the coordination costs of a rebellion, were all important factors to explain

conflict initiation. But these factors had been present for some time and therefore are

not capable of explaining events in 1961. Instead, the favourable Cold War period and

regional context with the independence of the DRC could have been the deciding

factors that led to the initiation of the conflict in 1961.

The initiation of the international Civil War in 1975

Despite the economic uplifting of the local population in the 1960s21 and political

grievances being answered through the independence of Angola, the Cold War setting

did not allow an independent peaceful solution to be found. Also war capital (in the

form of fighting groups and military equipment) resulting from the previous war of

independence were a disincentive for the national groups to find a political compromise.

This Civil War that started in 1975 would last until April 2002, with a brief pause in the

conflict in 1991/1992 and in 1996/1997.

Two processes are important to understand the initiation of the Civil War: the socio-

economic configuration in Angola before independence, and; the process of transition

to independence, in particular the period from the Portuguese revolution on 25th of April

1974, up to the first trimester of 1976.

20 Since 1961 the US National Security Council (NSC) officially supported UPA (Wright, 2001).

21 Between 1962 and 1973 the average real GDP growth is 5% (Ferreira, 2006).

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

In the pre-independence period, economic growth and colonial policies met the

grievances of the local populations, at the same time that a series of military tactics

proved paramount in successfully controlling the rebellion. A certain degree of

industrialization and the emergence of oil as the main export product were the most

significant socio-economic developments in the period (Ferreira, 2006).

The three main nationalist movements developed differently, each with specific

international support. The FNLA was led by Holden Roberto with the support of Mobutu

Sese Seko and was part of the anti-Soviet groups, supported by the USA, the DRC and

the People’s Republic of China. Nevertheless, the support provided was symbolic and

never sufficient for the FNLA to mount an independent process capable of decisively

challenging the colonial government. The MPLA was at this stage plagued by

fragmentation, with the “Eastern Revolt” led by Daniel Chipenda and the “Active Revolt”

headed by the Andrade brothers challenging the leadership. Agostinho Neto would

eventually secure his position during 1974 alongside Soviet and Cuban support to the

MPLA. In UNITA, the leadership of Jonas Savimbi was secure and the movement's

presence was mainly in the southern regions. UNITA was the movement with least

foreign support at this stage. Apparently, all the independence movements were taken

by surprise when on 25th April 1974 there was a military coup in Portugal overthrowing

the “Estado Novo” and with a key objective of ending the colonial wars.

During this period, the internationalized Civil War begins to display two main

characteristics: on the one hand, the apparent inevitability that each nationalist

movement seeks to acquire exclusive power in Angola and, on the other hand, not only

the lack of cooperation and coordination of each external actor in containing the

conflictual impetus but also the gradual increment of their involvement in a competitive

process.

Initially, Portugal took on a leading role in the decolonization process, managing to

secure a ceasefire agreement and the signature of the Alvor Accords by the three

movements in January 1975. The accord stipulated a transition plan with a date for the

independence on 11th November 1975. In practice, Portugal did not have the capacity

or availability to manage the process and from August 1975 onwards handed over the

transition process to the fortunes of parties on the ground.

Initially, all three movements received limited support from their Cold War external

supporters. But in the months leading up to independence day both the MPLA in Luanda

as well as the FNLA in the North of Angola (supported by the DRC) progressively

stepped up the intensity of the conflict. This would take on a decisive international

dimension in October/November when South Africa decided to launch an invasion force

in support of UNITA, and Cuba increased its support for the MPLA (Operations Savana

and Carlota respectively).

Holden Roberto attempted to conquer Luanda with a final showdown in the decisive

Quifangondo battle, which ended on 10th November 1975. This battle opposed the MPLA

supported by the Cubans to the FNLA supported by DRC. The South African troops were

not involved as they were stopped in Lobito (a town in the south of Angola) on their

way to the capital. By winning this battle and holding the capital, the MPLA declared the

independence of Angola on 11th November 1975 and claimed the right to govern its

sovereignty.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

This date marks the initiation of the internationalized Civil War in Angola, opposing the

MPLA to the UNITA and FNLA. After the Angolan independence, the American Congress

decided, through the Clark amendment, to end direct American involvement in Angola,

which would contribute, a few months later, to the withdrawal of the South African

military forces from southern Angola. The Clark amendment was in effect between

1976 and 1985, significantly limiting American support to the FNLA and UNITA.

The model and the initiation of conflict in 1975

The initiation of the Civil War was the result of the building up of opportunities. The

MPLA and the FNLA intended to claim the government by holding the capital, Luanda,

on the day of independence and UNITA intended to dominate the South, with all groups

respecting the territorial integrity of the Angolan state.

The opportunities of the payback from conflict are related to the natural resources and

international support. Oil had become the main export, constituting an important

“award” for the group controlling the government22. At the same time, although the

economic conditions had improved since 1961, the recruitment costs of potential rebels

continued to be low compared to other countries23.

The specific period of the Cold War was relevant in determining the superpowers’ lack

of interest – or incapacity – to agree on a low intensity solution for the conflict. The

specific phase of the Cold War, after the Israel/Arab war, where the Soviets had lost

ground in the Middle East and Americans were losing in Vietnam, was conducive to the

Soviets testing American determination in the case of Angola. This decision was

facilitated by the availability and “idealism” of the Cubans, who provided the most

complicated resource to secure - troops. Also relevant was the availability of South

Africa to play a counterweight regional role, controlling the African nationalist fervour

and its Soviet tendencies, in line with its own need to maintain the apartheid system.

Additionally, the war capital24 gave the groups the organizational capability to wage war

but also the international recognition consubstantiated in the three groups being a

party to the Alvor Accords. In this case, the war capital was not linked to the

accumulation of hatreds between the groups because the main common enemy had

been the Portuguese25.

Another factor was the power vacuum in national governance. At symbolic level, none

of the challenging parties managed to win over the colonial power. Rather, it was the

established power that proclaimed its own extinction. There was no legitimate force to

hold onto power and hence requiring a transition process prone to competition. At the

same time, as Portugal was unable to secure the role of mediator throughout the

transition process, the monopoly of power was in practice abandoned to the players

that jockeyed for position, with some advantage to the MPLA as it was based in Luanda.

22 It represented 36 percent of GDP by 1975.

23 Income per capita and secondary school enrolment is lower than in the average of countries where Civil

War started between 1975 and 1980.

24 Resulting from the 14 years of insurrection.

25 Even if the three groups were rarely involved in joint operations.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

Finally and inversely to the model's prediction26, the high social fractionalization in the

country27 and the lack of ethnic domination may have contributed to conflict initiation.

In Angola there were three political parties formed along ethnic-lines with similar

importance and none had a hegemonic presence. Alongside other factors, it may have

been precisely the lack of hegemony of any of the three groups that led to the political

conditions explaining the groups’ hegemonic ambitions to power in a process of regime

transition.

In sum, the potential oil revenues from controlling the state (and low recruitment costs

of fighters) were important in this period, together with the war capital, but need to be

analysed in conjunction with the international and regional Cold War dynamics that

contributed to the escalation of the conflict. International and regional external

interventions explain significantly the escalatory process of the conflict. At the same

time, the social fractionalization without hegemony was the condition that led to a

conflictive competitive bid to occupy the power vacuum left by the Portuguese, who

were not defeat but withdrew from the conflict.

The failure of the 1992 elections

The signature of the New York Accords in 1988 marked the end of the Cold War

dimension of the Civil War in Angola. The accords implemented the United Nations

Security Council’s resolution 435 granting independence to Namibia, agreeing on the

withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola and, indirectly, the end of South African

incursions in the south of Angola. Three years after, in May 1991, the Bicesse accords

were signed between the MPLA and UNITA with a plan to hold elections. The Bicesse

accords brought a period of relative peace in Angola up to the elections in September

1992, when the conflict resumed after the announcement of the elections’ results.

The failure to secure peace in this process was partly related to the specific

organizational, economic and political characteristics of the two contending parties.

The MPLA party went through a significant reorganization after the presidency of

Agostinho Neto was challenged from within the party in a failed coup d'etat by Nito

Alves in 197728. With the death of Agostinho Neto in 1979, José Eduardo dos Santos

assumed the presidency of the party and the state. The MPLA is a Marxist-Leninist

inspired state project for most of the later 1970s and 1980s. But reforms had to be

initiated in the 1990s as a result of a series of structural constrains, namely: the over

dependence of the economy on oil makes it susceptible to oil price fluctuations; an

economic system discredited and in debt; the end of support from its resourceful

strategic partners29; the collapse of state services in terms of education, health, water,

sewerage, garbage, electricity and transport (Pereira, 1994), and; a military dead-lock

in the conflict30.

26 According to the model, when there is a higher social fractionalization and hegemony is avoided, the

likelihood of conflict initiation decreases significantly.

27 Almost double the levels identified for countries when Civil Wars started.

28 According to Hodges (2001, p.46), the initiatives taken in the post-coup attempt period resulted in a

culture characterized by “fear, conformism, state dependence, lack of initiative and submission” in a

process he refers to as the “loss of innocence” in Angola (ibid, p.161).

29 Politically and economically the Soviet Union, and militarily Cuba.

30 Incapable of defeating the UNITA militarily even after the end of direct South African support.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

In this context, the MPLA party initiated a process of political-economic reforms:

opened the state to the multi-party system; further opened the economy; promoted

civil society participation, and; introduced freedom of the press. These changes were

inspired on models proposed by the international community and were in line with the

demands of UNITA (Hodges, 2001). Economically, the reform was partial, in the

impossible mission of merging market mechanisms regulated by a plan in a centralized

and planned economy (Ferreira, 2002). Politically, the constitution underwent

modification in 1991 and 1992 with a series of laws passed within the spirit of the

Bicesse accords. The failure to implement decentralization and local government

provisions of the constitution, together with the reinforcement of a presidential system

meant the establishment of a formal pyramid system under the president. It also

meant an “all or nothing” setting for the elections.

The ideology of UNITA, the other main party, was a mixture of Maoism with Ovimbundu

nationalism31 and regionalism32. Throughout the 1970s, UNITA transformed itself into a

structured, hierarchical organization within the requirements of a nationalist

movement, exercising a monopoly of violence within controlled areas and operating an

administrative apparatus, which included the provision of social services (Bakonyi and

Stuvøy, 2005). During the 1980s, UNITA broadened territorial control33, developed a

diamond economy and improved the governance structure34. UNITA’s internal

organisational cohesion was the merit of its leadership and of an effective patrimonial

system, even if dependent on funding from the CIA and on military support from South

Africa (Stuvøy, 2002).

In contrast to the MPLA, UNITA was intimately linked to the local traditional power

structures. At the end of the 1980s, an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 people lived under

UNITA rule in Jamba, about 80,000 to 100,000 in its surroundings and it had around

30,000 troops in 1984 (George, 2005). UNITA considered that an electoral solution

would give them a victory over its main competitor of the time, the MPLA, and was

united around the leadership of Jonas Savimbi.

Regarding the overall well-being of the population, from 1987 onwards Angola was

classified as in a state of calamity and in 1991 it received 6 million USD for assistance,

part of a 40 million USD package for humanitarian assistance channelled to Non-

Governmental Organizations. Additionally, the United Nations (UN) provided 165 million

USD for refugees and droughts.

Angolans had to choose one of these two parties and their leaders on the 29th and 30th

of September 1992 first free and fair elections in Angola. A total of 4,8 million Angolans

voted, with a participation rate of 92 per cent of registered voters35 (Pereira, 1994).

The result for the presidency did not grant the required majority to any of the

contestants, but José Eduardo dos Santos, with 49,7 per cent, had achieved more votes

than Jonas Savimbi with 40 per cent. The second round of elections would never take

place as the conflict resumed36.

31 Different form FNLA or MPLA nationalism.

32 In opposition to the then prevailing Marxist, Pan-Africanism and socialist perspectives.

33 The territory controlled by UNITA was the central plateau, its main stronghold.

34 Some analysts considered it a quasi-state.

35 90 per cent of adult population was registered.

36 The parliament was won by the MPLA with 54 per cent of votes against the 34 per cent of UNITA, with

other small parties winning 12 per cent of the votes.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

The electoral defeat of UNITA reflected the ethnic character of the party. Of the four

provinces it won37, only in one the Ovimbundu were not in a majority – in Kuando

Kubango, where UNITA had operated since the 1970s. In contrast, the MPLA was able

to attract groups beyond the Mbundu (Hodges, 2001). This electoral pattern reflects

what Pereira (1994) identifies as the clashing vision of the parties: besides being both

patriotic and state-centric, the MPLA ascribed to an inclusive nationalism while the

UNITA had a particularistic ethnic nationalist vision. Although the observers considered

the elections to be fair, UNITA did not accept the results announced on the 17th of

October 1992 and intensified the conflict. This time the conflict took place not only in

the countryside but also in the cities, including Luanda (Wright, 2001), and targeted

the state system itself. In December 1992, the Angolan government launched a military

counter-offensive (Wright, 2001) and the Civil War resumed.

The model and the intensification of the Civil War in 1992

Although the 1990s began with a series of factors favourable to peace, like the end of

the Cold War with international and regional commitment to peace and the population’s

eagerness for peace (as attested by voter turn-out), the re-initiation of conflict in 1992

was related mainly to the country’s economic opportunities regarding resources

(diamonds and oil) combined with the political grievances generated by a governance

model where the “winner takes all”.

The opportunities for funding through oil for the MPLA and diamonds for UNITA38

substantially determined the predisposition for conflict, mainly on the part of UNITA but

also indirectly for the MPLA. For UNITA, this predisposition was more direct in the sense

that it had lost the elections and therefore was about to lose control over both its

territory39 and source of revenue (diamonds). For the MPLA, there is no counterfactual

for its possible reaction in case it had lost the elections. Nevertheless, the fact that

there was an “all or nothing” presidential model makes it reasonable to assume the

MPLA did not intend to share or abandon the state executive power which controlled oil

revenues. Natural resources was a key factor at this stage and the best comparison for

its role is the case of Mozambique, which had a similar Civil War history but, without

natural resources, was able to reach peace in 1992.

In combination with the natural resources, the governance system in place at the time

of the elections, a non-decentralized presidential model, contributed towards an

essential factor: grievance by political exclusion of a group40, at both central and local

levels of governance. This grievance would be unacceptable to a war-hardened

authoritarian UNITA, which, together with the historical low level of national unity and

limitations of the Bicesse accords, contributed decisively to the peace plan failure41

(Pereira, 1994). Generally speaking, the responsibility of the leadership in the conflict

can be attributed to both parties (Anstee, 1996), even if at this stage particularly the

37 Benguela, Bié, Huambo and Kuando Kubango.

38 The ratio of primary commodity exports to GDP was 47% in 1990.

39 Because the decentralization legislation had not been passed.

40 Considering the resource base of the economy, one could argue that political exclusion also meant

economic exclusion.

41 The limitation of the Bicesse accords were the limited resources of the UN for the mandate, the short time

span of the process, the execution of the elections without full compliance of the stipulations in the accord

(mainly regarding the military component), and the inexistence of a power sharing solution (Hodges,

2001).

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

UNITA and president Jonas Savimbi had been identified as a “greedy spoiler” in the

peace process (Stedman, 1997).

In addition to the above key dynamics, a series of other factors both contributed to the

conflict or were favourable to peace. On the one hand, contributing to conflict were

opportunity factors such as: the atypical low costs of recruitment, with thousands of

people who knew of no other work apart from fighting or living in a war economy; the

destruction of the economy and generalized poverty, which did not provide great

income alternatives for unemployed youths or demobilized soldiers, and; the

accumulation of war equipment from where one can extract quick and easy returns. On

the other hand, contributing to peace were: the international and regional dynamics

with active support through the UN and a decision by the superpowers to ban military

support to the conflicting parties; the concentration of the population in urban areas as

a result of the war, and; the national legitimation of government by holding elections.

The intensification of Civil War in 1998

After the relapse into Civil War in 1992, the conflict would de-escalate in 1996 and

1997, two years of almost peace in the country. But the Civil War broke out again in

1998 and lasted until 2002.

Between 1992 and 1998, significant advancements were made in the implementation of

a multi-party model with a more inclusive governance system, at the same time that

the Angolan government acquired legitimacy with the 1992 elections and USA

recognition in 1993. UNITA returned to the negotiation table in 1993 as a result of

territorial losses to the MPLA42 and of the 1993 United Nations sanctions targeting its

leadership. In the following year, on 20th November 1994, Jonas Savimbi signed the

Lusaka protocol.

The protocol was based on the Bicesse one, but had significant provisions for additional

executive power sharing between the parties and the delay of elections until the end of

military activities. It further stipulated UNITA’s respect for national law, the assumption

of seats in parliament by the elected representatives of UNITA, the return of all

belongings to UNITA members and the granting of lodging to UNITA leaders (Wright,

2001). The responsibility to monitor the agreement was granted to the UN and a

significant peace force was deployed in February 1995.

Economically, the 1990s were characterised by the government’s incapacity to

implement a coherent economic programme. For Ferreira (2006), the war certainly

conditioned the Angolan economy but the main obstacles were the inappropriate

policies and the political system that promoted a rentier elite. As Oliveira (2007) points

out, it is the oil revenue in petro-states that allows an unsustainable system to last long

beyond its normal life span and, together with it, the elite that manages it.

For UNITA, this decade was marked by the unsuccessful process of being transformed

from a guerrilla force into a political party with both parliamentary representation and

executive responsibilities. A double process of disintegration occurs: one of the

established “social system” of the “quasi-state”, and; another of the party leadership

42 In 1992, UNITA controlled about 60 to 70 per cent of the territory, while in 1994 it controlled 40 per cent,

and in November 1994 it lost the key areas of Huambo and Uige.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

with the emergence of breakaway factions43. The difficulties in making UNITA comply

with the Lusaka protocol led the international community to continue a sanctions policy.

In 1997 and 1998, the United Nations sanctions targeted the UNITA leadership, UNITA

party and in particular the diamond business. It is estimated that UNITA diamond

revenues were somewhere in the region of 2 to 3,5 million USD from 1992 to 1998

(Cramer, 2006).

Due to the incapacity to make UNITA implement the Lusaka protocols, in December

1998, at the fourth MPLA Congress, President José Eduardo dos Santos declared that

the only route to peace was war. He requested both an end to the Lusaka peace

process and for the UN mission to leave44 (Hodges, 2001). In January 1999, José

Eduardo dos Santos convened a war cabinet to achieve total victory (James, 2004) and

in July of that year the Angola government, through its Department of Criminal

Research, issued a warrant in the name of Jonas Malheiro Sidónio Savimbi for crimes of

“armed rebellion, sabotage and slaughter” (James, 2004, p.xxxv). The war had re-

initiated and this time it would only finish after the death in combat of Jonas Savimbi

on 12th March 2002.

The model and the intensification of conflict in 1998

The context of a continued lack of compliance with the accords’ stipulations by the

UNITA led the MPLA to decide for a belligerent solution to the conflict, within a specific

social-economic context.

On one hand, UNITA seemed to never accept any peace solution. The failure to attract

a full cooperation from UNITA by broadening the power-sharing formula of peace led to

more pressure of the international community, which intensified the ongoing party

disintegration. Although some UNITA members assumed parliamentary and executive

functions, Jonas Savimbi’s faction did not accept the process, continuing to defy the

constitutionality of the state.

On the other hand, the MPLA was pressured internationally and domestically. It could

not close economic reform deals at a stage when the economy was extremely

debilitated. Although oil revenues were critical and sufficient for the maintenance of the

patrimonial system surrounding the president, successive initiatives of populist

inspiration and restrictions on civil liberties revealed concerns over the economic crisis

and popular grievances (MRP, 2005)45. At a time when the MPLA could be more

accountable for its governance record, the international community had spent the

1990s criticising and pressuring the MPLA for increased transparency, more respect for

human rights and justice. The MPLA military involvement in the conflicts on the

Republic of Congo in 1997 and in the DRC in 1998 allowed it to close down the foreign

bases of UNITA.

In this way and specifically for the MPLA, the factors identified for conflict initiation in

1992 continue to hold. In particular, the opportunities for funding from oil, the low level

of alternative sources of income for would be soldiers, the high level of accumulated

43 Among them UNITA Renovada in 1998.

44 Which left in February 1999.

45 The grievances were also a result of the war strategy of “social implosion” adopted by UNITA from 1992

onwards, with attacks in urban areas, to the administrative systems and forcing the exodus of the

population to the cities, along with committing human atrocities.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

war capital together with a certain Ovimbundu targeted hatred that had developed (of

which the post-election ethnic violence is an example). Nevertheless, in this phase

there may also have been other factors contributing to Civil War initiation related to the

political survival of the MPLA elite and a perspective that the debility of UNITA46,

together with the international backing for the MPLA, might permit a military victory by

the MPLA.

UNITA, in turn, tried to maintain the state within the state up to the last moment, with

its own specific economic and social characteristics. The fact that UNITA was funded by

diamonds and the MPLA by oil from an enclave was important to the extent that it

progressively increased the resources available to the MPLA (with a safe source) and

diminished those of UNITA (with an uncertain source) with possible repercussions on

military capabilities. Consequently, the maintenance of resource areas and their

revenues were important to military capacity but they do not seem to have been the

main motivation. Instead, they enabled the conflict to drag on and then re-start,

reinforcing the perspective that resources are a means as well as an end in the conflict.

For instance, it is highly probable that in this phase of the conflict the UNITA leadership

would have more to gain financially in moving to Luanda and integrate the state neo-

patrimonial system rather than to keep on fighting. This is corroborated by the

fragmentation and emergence of UNITA-Renovada.

Finally, this UNITA belligerence, which splits apart to continue fighting, reinforces the

importance of leadership, in this case Jonas Savimbi, and the role that this plays in the

achievement or not of political solutions. In the 1998 re-initiation of the conflict, it

began to become obvious that the conflict was dependant on the military capacity and

leadership of Jonas Savimbi.

Leadership

Several elements contribute to a rationalist and constructivist explanation of the role of

leadership in Angola, instead of primordial perspectives.

In the description set out above, the leaderships are presented as individualized but in

fact the four main leaders are the top of a structure of political, economic and military

power, in these cases, mostly autocratic and centralized but dependent on an elite and

power network. Agostinho Neto needed to redefine the party as a means of

consolidating his leadership of the MPLA; José Eduardo dos Santos fostered an

economic-military nomenklatura based on oil; Jonas Savimbi based his structure on the

traditional leaders, patrimonial system of diamonds along with a military wing; and

Holden Roberto related significantly to the elite of Mobutu Sese Seko.

Already with recognized leadership capabilities when a FNLA member and having

negotiated with the MPLA in the 1960s, it would seem it was a messianic determination

or ambition that led Jonas Savimbi to opt to start a process from scratch and create

UNITA without significant international support during the 1960s. With only a small,

unrepresentative nationalist group in 1975, it was after independence that Jonas

Savimbi managed to mount a “quasi-state” socio-economic structure in the south.

These origins and developments of UNITA as a coherent ethnic group were the product

46 Both politically as well as militarily as a result of the choking off of revenue sources.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

of a social construction by the political elite and less the result of primordial factors.

After the end of the Cold War and the 1992 elections, its survival outside the state was

due mainly to UNITA's existing capacity. Also at this time, it was an inability to accept a

secondary role in the state structure that drove Jonas Savimbi to re-engage in conflict.

Even periods of peace, or of almost peace, resemble more phases of reorganization and

management of the status quo, as Jonas Savimbi never took up his place in the capital

– Luanda. The disintegration of UNITA in this period also attests against a primordial

account, wherein some elements of the UNITA leadership were able to become

incorporated into the MPLA system.

We can identify the importance of Jonas Savimbi given the fact that the conflict only

ended after his death in 2002. Having the benefit of hindsight, it seems the only

moment when a deal might have been possible with Jonas Savimbi would have been in

1975, if a federalist solution had been established before UNITA set up the “quasi-

state”, and eventually in 1992, if a decentralized solution had been implemented,

although at that time it seemed virtually impossible to position Jonas Savimbi under

some other authority.

The other leader, Holden Roberto, depicts an external factor, representative of the first

nationalist impetus on the continent, connected after 1970 to Mobutu Sese Seko. Since

the beginning of the DRC independence process, the liberation of the Bakongo people

had been on the agenda of nationalist leaders and Holden Roberto arose as the leader

of a movement that quickly changed its regionalist focus to a nationalist and Pan-

Africanist focus, in accordance with the prevailing political orientations. Closely

associated with the political movements emerging out of Leopoldville, Holden Roberto

lacked the determination, capacity or possibility of having an independent movement

and this might have led to his earlier appropriation by Mobutu Sese Seko, who ended

up ordering him out of the country in 1987 (Spikes, 1993). The lack of funding would

not have been the main factor in this gradual process of disappearance of the FNLA, as

the US only switched from supporting the FNLA to backing the UNITA after

independence.

Also in the FNLA case, it was the leadership construction of identity with external

support that fuelled the rebellion. The fact that the FNLA and its leadership virtually

disappeared in the post-independence period while the conflict between the MPLA and

UNITA endured attests to a rejection of primordial perspectives.

Finally, in the MPLA case, the initial leadership of Agostinho Neto was critical in the

sense that it transformed a heterogeneous party into a cohesive political group, leaving

a clear path for José Eduardo dos Santos. Part of the escalation of the conflict in

Luanda in 1975 can be attributed to Agostinho Neto as the leader of the MPLA (possibly

aided by the Portuguese), even if there was an inevitability of the FNLA attempting to

take the city. José Eduardo dos Santos took over an homogeneous party in 1980 but

has the merit of maintaining it and governing the party without violent open challenges

to his leadership.

Formed by mestiços and Mbundu, the MPLA had a more inclusive and multi-ethnic

platform, which in its origins was more ideologically grounded. Even if there is no

evidence of constructivist accounts, it points to a rejection of the primordial

perspective. Significant examples of it was the adoption of Portuguese as the national

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

language or running the campaign to the 1992 election on an inclusive multi-ethnic

discourse, in contrast to UNITA, which explicitly had an exclusivist ethnic agenda.

Conclusion

The case study validates the importance of leadership and external interventions as

explanatory variables in the initiation or intensification of Civil War. Overall, all factors -

“greed”, “grievance”, leadership and external interventions – were operative in Angola.

The challenge is to distinguish among the mechanisms (factors) present in each

initiation or intensification of the conflict the one(s) that most decisively contributed to

that outcome, even if limited by the difficulty to isolate the path dependence processes.

The 1961 initiation of the independence war is the least well explained by the “greed”

versus “grievance” model. It was based on the combination of economic and political

grievances along ethnic lines that the conflict against the colonial domination emerged.

But this decolonization motive would not have found form and expression without

external influence. Regional and international diffusion of the idea of independence

alongside political and (limited) military support were the required mechanisms for the

conflict to start.

The initiation of conflict in 1975 is mainly explained by the Cold War and economic

“greed” factors. An initial setting was the power vacuum resulting from independence

which, combined with a fractionalization without hegemony, led to an intense

competition with no party able to claim legitimacy for the government. The economic

aspects emerge mainly through the existence of resources, which were an important

award to the winners, but these “greed” factors become operative mainly through the

external support operating within the geo-political context of the Cold War. The support

provided internationally and regionally to the parties in the conflict was an essential

mechanism for the conflict to start.

In the intensification of the conflict in 1992, one can find “greed” factors in the

importance of resources (oil and diamonds), in the poverty and in the years of conflict,

and “grievance” factors in the governance system that gave hegemonic power to the

winner of the elections and political grievances to the looser. But at this stage, natural

resources had become the means and ends of the conflict for both MPLA and UNITA,

explaining the “winner takes all” constitutional solution adopted in the elections.

Therefore, “greed” economic factors seem to be the essential mechanism for the

conflict intensification in this phase. It is important to highlight that at his stage there

was an international and regional context conducive to a peaceful solution. From this

phase onwards, the leadership of Jonas Savimbi assumes an important role in the

impossibility to end the conflict.

Finally, in the intensification of the conflict in 1998, one can find the same economic

“greed” factors as in 1992. The political grievance in the governance system existing in

1992 had been dealt with through increased power sharing solutions capable of

attracting some UNITA members. The leadership of Jonas Savimbi constitutes the

essential mechanism to explain the intensification of conflict in this phase. The end of

the conflict after Jonas Savimbi’s death highlights the importance of eliminating

“grievance” factors in order to prevent conflict.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

References

Anstee, M. Joan (1997). Orphan of the Cold War: The Inside Story of the Angolan

Peace Process, 1992-23, Porto: Campo das Letras.

Bakonyi, J. & Stuvøy, K. (2005). Violence & social order beyond the state: Somalia &

Angola. Review of African Political Economy, 32:104, pp.359 – 382.

Birmingham, D. (2006). Empire in Africa – Angola and its Neighbours, Athens: Ohio

University Press.

Birmingham, D. (1999). Portugal and Africa, Houndmills: Macmillan Press.

Brubaker, R. (1995). “National Minorities, Nationalizing States, and External National

Homelands in the New Europe.” Daedalus 124 (2): 107–32.

Buhaug, H., Cederman, L. and Gleditsch, K.S. (2014). “Square Pegs in Round Holes:

Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War”. International Studies Quarterly.

Cederman, L, Weidmann, N.B. and Gleditsch, K.S. (2011). Horizontal Inequalities and

Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. American Political Science Review,

105, pp 478-495.

Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. and Rohner, D. (2009). Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility

and Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 61: 1-27.

Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in Civil War. Oxford economic

papers, 56, pp.563-595.

Collier, P. and Sambanis, N. (ed.) (2005). Understanding Civil War (Volume 1: Africa):

Evidence and Analysis, World Bank.

Cramer, C. (2006). Civil War is not a Stupid Thing: Accounting for Violence in

Developing Countries. London: C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd.

Cramer, C. (2002). Homo Economicus Goes to War: Methodological Individualism,

Rational Choice and the Political Economy of War, World Development Vol. 30, No. 11,

pp. 1845–1864.

Davies, J. C. (1962). Toward a Theory of Revolution, American Sociological Review 6

(1): 5–19.

Elbadawi, I. and Sambanis, S. (2000). “External Interventions and the Duration of Civil

Wars”. Policy Research Working Paper 2433, The World Bank Development Research

Group: 1 – 18.

Fearon, J. D (2005). Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War. Journal of Conflict

Resolution 49, 4 (August), 483-507.

Fearon, J.D. and Laitin, D.D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War, American

Political Science Review 97, 1 (February): pp.75-90.

Ferreira, M.E. (2006). Angola: Conflict and development, 1961-2002. The Economics of

Peace and Security Journal, Vol. 1, No.1, pp.25-29.

Ferreira, M.E. (2002). Nacionalização e confisco do capital português na indústria

transformadora de Angola (1975-1990). Análise Social, vol. XXXVII, No.162, pp.47-90.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

George, E. (2005). The Cuban Intervention in Angola, 1965-1991 - From Che Guevara

to Cuito Cuanavale, London : Frank Cass.

Gleditsch, N.P., Wallensteen, P., Eriksson, M., Sollenberg, M. & Strand, H. (2002).

Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 39(5), pp.615–

637.

Gurr, T.R. (1970). Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Gurr, T.R (2000). Peoples Versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century, United

States Institute of Peace.

Hegre, H. & Sambanis, N. (2006). Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War

Onset, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 50 No. 4, August 2006, pp.508-535.

Hodges, T. (2001). Angola from Afro-Stalinism to Petro-Diamond Capitalism, Oxford:

James Currey.

James, W.M. (2004). Historical dictionary of Angola. - New Ed. Oxford: The Scarecrow

Press, Inc.

Korf, B. (2006). Cargo Cult Science, Armchair Empiricism and the Idea of Violent

Conflict, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 3, 459 – 476.

MRP (2005). Minorities at Risk Project "Minorities at Risk Dataset." College Park, MD:

Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Retrieved from

http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/ in: [July 2008].

Oliveira, R.S., 2007. Oil and Politics in the Gulf of Guinea, London: C. Hurst & Co.

Østby, G. (2008). Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities, and Violent Civil Conflict. Journal

of Peace Research 45 (2): 143–62.

Pereira, A.W. (1994). The Neglected Tragedy: the Return to War in Angola, 1992–3.

The Journal of Modern African Studies, 32, pp 128.

Regan, P. M., and Meachum, M. S. (2014). Data on Interventions during Periods of

Political Instability. Journal of Peace Research 51(1):127–135.

Rodrigues, L.N. (2004). “Orgulhosamente Sós"? Portugal e os Estados Unidos no início

da década de 1960, Presentation at the 22nd meeting of History Professors April 2004,

http://www.ipri.pt/investigadores/artigo.php?idi=8&ida=140.

Sambanis, N. (2002). A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the

Quantitative Literature on Civil War, Defence and Peace Economics, 13:3, 215-243,

DOI: 10.1080/10242690210976.

Sambanis, N. (2004). What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an

Operational Definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 6, December 2004,

pp.814-858.

Sambanis, N. (2005). Conclusion: Using Case Studies to Refine and Expand the Theory

of Civil War, in Collier, P. and Sambanis, N (ed.). Understanding Civil War (Volume 1:

Africa): Evidence and Analysis, World Bank.

Sousa, R.R.P. (2015). “External Interventions in Post-Cold War Africa, 1989–2010”,

International Interactions. Vol. 41, Iss. 4, 2015.

DOI:10.1080/03050629.2015.1028626.

JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations

ISSN: 1647-7251

Vol. 7, Nº 1 (May-October 2016), pp. 73-95

Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and

intensification of the civil war in Angola

Ricardo Real P. Sousa

Stewart, F. (2002). Horizontal Inequalities: A Neglected Dimension of Development,

WIDER Annual Lectures 5.

Stedman, S.J. (1997). “Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes”, International Security

22(2), 5-53.

Stuvøy, K. (2002). War Economy and the Social Order of Insurgencies - An Analysis of

the Internal Structure of UNITA’s War Economy. Arbeitspapier No. 3, 2002, Hamburg

University, IPW.

Spikes, D. (1993). Angola and the politics of intervention: from local Bush war to

chronic crisis in Southern Africa, Jefferson, North Carolina: McFarland and Company.

Tilly, C. (1978). From Mobilization to Revolution. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Wright, G. (2001). A destruição de um País – A política dos Estados Unidos para Angola

desde 1945. Lisboa: Caminho.