OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
ISSN: 1647-7251
Vol. 6, n.º 2 (November 2015-April 2016), pp. 32-43
RUSSIA’S “CONSERVATIVE MODERNIZATION”:
HOW TO SILENCE THE VOICES OF THE OPPOSITION
Richard Rousseau
richard.rousseau@aurak.ac.ae
Associate Professor of Political Science, American University of Ras Al Khaimah
(United Arab Emirates)
Abstract
Under Dmitry Medvedev’s and now Vladimir Putin’s presidency, modernization was/is
presented as a national imperative for the Russian government. It became a political slogan
and a means by which to restore Russia’s power internally and externally. This campaign
serves to push the agendas of some of Russia’s ruling elite within the larger ruling camp.
This article tries to answer the following question: How do Russian elites understand
modernization, both historically and within the current context? It concludes that Russian
“political technologists”, who have been in power in the last 15 years, have become masters
in the art of silencing the voices of those who take a critical view of the government’s
policies.
Keywords
Russia, Modernization, Putin, Medvedev, Conservatism
How to cite this article
Rousseau, Richard (2015). "Russia's «conservative modernization»: how to silence the
voices of the opposition". JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 6, N.º 2,
November 2015-April 2016. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol6_n2_art03
Article received on 25 June 2015 and accepted for publication on 29 September 2015
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ISSN: 1647-7251
Vol. 6, n.º 2 (November 2015-April 2016), pp. 32-43
Russia's "conservative modernization": how to silence the voices of the opposition
Richard Rousseau
33
RUSSIA’S “CONSERVATIVE MODERNIZATION”:
HOW TO SILENCE THE VOICES OF THE OPPOSITION
Richard Rousseau
In 2011, under his “Go Russia!” motto, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (2008-
2012) called on citizens to take a fresh look at their country’s history and direction. He
was intent on introducing a debate on the need for economic modernization, which has
been a recurrent theme throughout Russia’s history, dating back to the time of Peter
the Great.
Modernization is now being presented as a national imperative under the Putin
administration, repackaged as a political slogan and embossed in the usual layers of
rhetoric and nationalism. This campaign serves to push the agendas of some of
Russia’s ruling elite within the larger ruling camp. But how do Russian elites understand
modernization, both historically and within the current context?
Russia is too often misunderstood by Western experts and politicians, as there appears
to be no middle ground. Many either take a very negative and somber view of the
country1, or they claim that Russia is so unique and exotic that it is in a category of its
own, not comparable to other states2
Both these views of Russia are misleading. The first paints a very gloomy picture of
Russia’s social and economic conditions, and uses historical precedent to argue that it
has always been perceived as a dangerous country. It cannot be denied that there have
been, and continue to be, many disturbing aspects to Russia’s development, but this
fascination with Russia’s dark side underpins the perceptions of Russia most commonly
heard in the West, which derives from an overly selective recalling of historical events.
The second understanding, that Russia is an exotic, almost oriental place, full of
paradoxes, mystery and intrigue, implies that it cannot be so easily understood by
applying generic social science paradigms. The argument is that as Russia is culturally
unique, it does not come close to adopting normal development paths, particularly
.
1 See Blank, Stephen (2015). Putin Celebrates Stalinism. Again. Atlantic Council, 27 May. Available at:
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/putin-celebrates-stalinism-again; Pipes, R. (1991).
The Russian Revolution. Vintage, 1st Ed; Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1990). Grand Failure: The Birth and Death
of Communism in the Twentieth Century. Collier Books; Nolte, E., and Furret, F. (2004). Fascism and
Communism. University of Nebraska Press, 1st Ed.
2 See Getty, J. H., and Naumov, Oleg (1999). The Road to Terror: Stalin and the Self-Destruction of the
Bolsheviks, 1932-1939. Yale University Press; Malia, M. (1995). The Soviet Tragedy: A History of
Socialism in Russia, 1917-1991. Free Press; Applebaum, A. (2003). Gulag: A History. Doubleday; Raeff,
M. (1994). Political Ideas and Institutions in Imperial Russia. Boulder, CO: Westview.
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when compared to those of Western countries. Taking this view is, in effect, a means of
avoiding making any definite statement about what Russia is.
Russia is different in many ways, not only from the other states that constituted the
former Soviet Union but from countries of comparable size and population. It also
stands apart because of the geopolitical role it plays in both Europe and Eurasia, and its
strategic significance as the world’s second largest nuclear power. It wields important
political clout due to its status as a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council.
Above all, Russia is unique because it perceives itself to be different – but all countries
perceive themselves to be unique in some way, and wants to remain different.
The collapse and rebuilding of Russia’s state structures, political institutions and
economic system after the demise of the USSR in 1991 created enormous uncertainty
for Russia and affected the way Russians defined themselves as a nation. For instance,
although today’s Russian Federation is the direct successor of a thousand years of
statehood, the political forms and boundaries of the contemporary state differ from any
that Russia has known. Like the Soviet Union, the Russian Republic was also formally
considered a federation and had internal ethnic-national subdivisions. But in contrast to
the larger USRR, only some of its constituent members are ethnic national territories.
Why? Because most of the republics in the Russian Federation are pure administrative
subdivisions populated by Russians. Under the Soviet system, Russia’s internal ethnic
national territories were classified by size and status into autonomous republics and
autonomous provinces and by national districts. Today, all the former autonomous
republics are simply termed republics. In many republics, the indigenous ethnic group
comprises a minority of the population. Since 1991 the names and status of some of
the constituent units in Russia have changed3
The modernization imperative took root in the so-called third cycle of development, or
post-communist cycle, which began in 1991, the first two cycles being the period from
the Revolution of 1905 to the February Revolution of 1917 and the Communist period
(1917-1991)
.
4. In September 2009, Dmitry Medvedev wrote on the President of Russia’s
website that “previous attempts to modernize Russia – those initiated by Peter the
Great and the Soviet Union – had partially failed and had come at a high social cost to
Russia”5
Looking back at the transformation of Russia since 1991, this period has been
characterized by alternating pushes for reform and stability and has contributed in
large part to the creation of a hybrid system combining elements of superficial
Westernization with the remnants of a Soviet iron fist policy. The overall results appear
to be an elite-led modernization of the economic system and society that has become
fused with a greater degree of authoritarianism in the political domain
.
6
Government elites have been transformed into a new kind of ruling class – similar to
royalty – which today controls the many layers of state and para-state bureaucracies,
military and law enforcement institutions. This class is linked with Russian corporations
through the use of administrative resources and in its rent-seeking behavior. For
.
3 See Sakwa, R. (2008). Russian Politics and Society. London and New York, Routledge, Fourth Edition.
4 See Figes, Orlando (2014). Revolutionary Russia, 1891–1991, Metropolitan Books.
5 Medvedev, Dmitry (2009). Go Russia! President of Russia Official Web-Site, September 10. Available at:
http://eng.news.kremlin.ru/news/298
6 Mezrich, B. (2015). Once Upon a Time in Russia: The Rise of the Oligarchs. A True Story of Ambition,
Wealth, Betrayal, and Murder. Atria Books.
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instance, most of the firms run by former KGB colleagues of Putin – whether Russian
Railroad President Vladimir Yakunin or Igor Sechin, the Executive Chairman of Rosneft
– and hit hard by the EU and U.S. sanctions provoked by the war in Eastern Ukraine
have received bailouts from the Russian government7
The post-Soviet ruling class, particularly the group known as the “siloviki” (those ‘men
in uniform’ reared in intelligence and law enforcement agencies and the Soviet Army),
reached the helm of power under Putin’s first presidency (2000-2008) and have
effectively alienated themselves from the Russian social fabric
. Such vested interests synergize
and determine Russia’s future.
8
The Putinist, semi-authoritarian “new integration project for Eurasia”
. The gap between the
ruling class and ordinary Russians is similar in degree to that found in the poorest third
world countries. Because of this widening gap between the rulers and those being ruled
Russian sociologists have diagnosed a deepening social-economic crisis in
contemporary Russia.
9, which
purportedly aims to provide the possibility of a leap of civilization into the 21st century,
has actually become a barrier to social change10. Putin’s “conservative modernization”,
which has predominated in official discourse in Russia since 2011, has, in fact,
sanctioned the social protection and prolongation of the status quo. It has come to
symbolize merely the good intentions and esteem of the powers that be11. This style of
modernization has little in common with the ideas of Western European modernizers of
the 20th century12. For some Russian observers, it compares with that of the
“obstructionists” and “reactionaries” of the epoch of “stagnation” under Leonid
Brezhnev’s leadership13
.
Conservative Modernization
Liberalism in the West has developed over a long time as private property, individual
freedoms and rationalist thinking developed, whereas in Russia all three has been
absent or were severely limited. The main problem in Russia was that the subject of
liberalism, homo economicus, was largely absent, and therefore liberalism found its
main support among the urban liberal intelligentsia14
7 Miller, Chris (2015). Russia’s Economy: Sanctions, Bailouts, and Austerity.
.
Foreign Policy Research
Institute, February. Available at: http://www.fpri.org/articles/2015/02/russias-economy-sanctions-
bailouts-and-austerity
8 See Hoffman, D. E. (2011). The Oligarchs: Wealth And Power In The New Russia. Public Affairs, Revised
Edition; Illarionov, Andrey (2009). The Siloviki in Charge. Journal of Democracy, 20 (2), pp. 69-72.
9 Putin, Vladimir (2013). A New Integration Project for Eurasia: The Future in the Making. Izvestia, October
3. (Reproduced on the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European Union website).
Available at: http://www.russianmission.eu/en#sthash.H1eXjC3e.dpuf
10 Inozemtsev, Vladislav (2010). Russie, Une Société Libre Sous Contrôle Autoritaire. (Russia – A Free
Society Under Authoritarian Control). Le Monde Diplomatique, No.10, p. 4-5.
11 See Inozemtsev, Vladislav (2010). Istoriya i Uroki Rossiyskikh Modernizatsiy. (The History and Lessons of
Russian Modernisations). Rossiya i Sovremenniy Mir, No 2 [67], April-June, p. 6-11; Trenin, Dmitri
(2010). Russia’s Conservative Modernization: A Mission Impossible? SAIS Review, Volume 30, Number 1,
Winter-Spring, pp. 27-37.
12 Von Laue, Theodore H. (1987). The World Revolution of Westernization. The Twentieth Century in Global
Perspective. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
13 Inozemtsev, Vladislav (2010). O Tsennostyakh I Normakh. (On values and Norms). Nezavisimaya Gazeta,
5 March, p. 3.
14 Raeff, M. (1994). Political Ideas and… Op. Cit., p. 56.
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In the West liberalism (including private property, individualism and the defense of the
individual and property rights in law) has come before democracy, but in Russia it was
the democratic revolution itself in 1987-1991 that created the bases of liberalism. This
it tried to do by diffusing the economic power that is associated with private property to
establish the basis for individual rights; but at the same time asserted the need for the
concentration of political power, a post-communist Leviathan, in the form of
presidential power15
Economic liberalism but not necessarily fully fledged democracy was on the agenda.
The deconcentration of economic power, moreover, succeeded in establishing a class of
“new Russians” and oligarchs, but appeared to do little for the mass of the population,
a large proportion of whom lost the social guarantees of the Soviet period and gained
very little in return. Liberalism remained far from hegemonic, challenged by the
counter-ideology of statism, and neither was it universal, limited to certain enclaves of
globalism in Russia, Moscow, St Petersburg and some other cities. Nevertheless,
despite the loss of territory and the collapse of the comforting certainties of an all-
embracing ideology it would be false to argue that liberalism failed to take root in
Russia.
.
At the heart of the liberal democratic revolution is the attempt to establish a market
economy and representative government. But how? While the liberal reformers of the
1990s paid lip service to representative government, faced with what to them appeared
intractable opposition from the conservatives in parliament many argued in favor of an
“iron hand”, the strong presidency and state acting as a type of enlightened despotism
pushing through the reforms but preserving the main post-Soviet political institutions.
Boris Yeltsin, the first post-Soviet president, appeared to succeed where Mikhail
Gorbachev failed in finding a mid-path between representative government and
outright coercion, a type of virtual representation of political and social interests
described by the various labels of delegative, illiberal or regime democracy. The
collapse of communist power and the weak development of a democratic counter-
system allowed bureaucratic and elite structures to establish a relatively high degree of
autonomy.
This was most evident in the government itself in the 1990s, established as a sort of
technocratic high command of the economic transition. In the regions, too, the control
functions once fulfilled by the Communist Party were only weakly replaced by the
system of federal representatives at the regional or federal district level. While social
change and economic transformation were perhaps prerequisites for a liberal order,
political development and democratization require more.
In reaction to the attempt to achieve a liberal modernization without liberals a type of
post-communist Russian conservatism emerged. Conservatism in Russia has much
deeper roots and philosophical traditions to draw on than liberalism; but at the turn of
the century and at the onset of Putin’s third presidential term (2011-2012) attempts
were made to combine the two in a distinctive Russian ideology of conservative
modernization.
15 Gill, G, and Merkwick, R., D. (2000). Russia’s Stillborn Democracy? From Gorbachev to Yeltsin. Oxford
University Press, pp. 127-150.
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Perhaps the most potent source of conservative modernization, however, was the
patriotic view of the need for a strong state combined with individual rights and a
constitutional system16
Putin’s conservative modernization drew on pre-revolutionary traditions, those of the
Soviet period, and in the post-Soviet period on world experience of liberal and social
conservatism. It sought to combine the liberal emphasis on economic freedoms with
gradual restraints on individual and political rights and an organic conception of the
larger community, the attempt to preserve Russia’s distinctive traditions, to revive the
Orthodox Church and to salvage something of the social policies of the Soviet period. A
distinctive brand of conservative modernization, espoused by neo-communists and
some national-patriots, sought the roots of the ‘new community’ in Russian traditions.
Putin’s rule represents a powerful combination of these attributes and adapts the
modernization drive to Russian current and historical condition.
. Thus, in Russia a unique synthesis of economic liberalism,
modernization and political conservatism took shape and assumed political form since
Putin's return to the presidency in March 2012.
The very concept of democracy in Russia now appears de-legitimized, while the word
itself is used as a term of opprobrium. The credibility gap between the statements of
the leadership and the realities of daily life gave rise to what has been called a mistrust
culture and a pervading sense of social nihilism. The ideology of conservative
modernization means that the political institutions of the state became more ordered,
leadership more resolute and consistent. In other words, political stability is better
assured by an authoritarian regime than by democratic disarray.
In his book Political Order in Changing Societies published in 1968, Samuel Huntington
argued that societies in transition to modernity require firm, if not military, leadership
to negotiate the enormous strains placed on society by period of rapid change17
Russia today has a hybrid political system, both democratic and authoritarian, but more
and more leaning towards the latter type. The freedoms that had begun during glasnost
blossomed into genuine freedom of speech and the press, and the variety of
publications and the openness of their content were unparalleled in Russia’s history.
Censorship was explicitly forbidden and only the courts could permanently ban
newspapers, and then only on specific grounds and after due warning.
. In
Putin’s Russia the “praetorian” role is being fulfilled by the presidency and his closest
allies rather than the army. The presidency recreated a center not only for the nation
but also for political society, the center that had crumbled under Yeltsin. Since 2012 the
fear, however, that the strong presidency would not act as a bulwark against
lawlessness but would itself be the vehicle for a new form of arbitrariness has proved
founded.
The hybrid nature of authoritarianism democracy in Putin’s Russia arose out of the
conflict between ends and means and has a dual function: to undermine the old
structures of social and political power dominated by the oligarchs, while at the same
time to provide the framework for the growth of conservative forms that could
16 Markov, Sergei (2009). Conservative Modernization. The Moscow Times, November 30. Available at:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/tmt/390539.html; Trenin, Dmitri (2010). Russia’s
Conservative Modernization: A Mission Impossible? Carnegie Moscow Center, May 25. Available at:
http://carnegie.ru/2010/05/25/russia-s-conservative-modernization-mission-impossible
17 Huntington, Samuel (1968). Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven/London: Yale University
Press, p. 1.
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ultimately stand on their own. Under Putin, moreover, regional and federal politics
became more insulated from the pressures of economic interests, and the presidency
operates less as a freeloading operator in the interstices of the state and society, as it
had done under Yeltsin, but as part of a state order seeking to modernize the Russian
state and society.
Negative Effects
This conservative modernization model has had many negative effects. The most
notable are the scale and systematic nature of corruption and legal nihilism. Valery
Zorkin, Chairman of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation and one of the
most powerful personalities in Russia, has publicly admitted that crime is ingrained in
the state apparatus and economy and that the interests of members of the state
apparatus and business class run parallel with the interests of criminal circles. In an
interview with Izvestia in 2004, he said that ‘bribe taking in the courts has become one
of the biggest corruption markets in Russia‘. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the level
of corruption in the judiciary increases the further down the hierarchy and further away
from Moscow one goes18. In 2004, Russia was ranked 90th out of 149 countries in the
Transparency International Global Corruption Index, whereas in 2013 it was 127th,
alongside notoriously corrupt countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Ivory
Coast19. It also ranked poorly on the World Bank’s Doing Business Survey; it was 112th
out of 185 countries, putting it on a level with ex-Soviet republics like Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan20
The Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR) and the Center for Strategic
Analysis (CSR), two institutions close to the Kremlin, have drawn even more telling
conclusions on the circumstances that Russia finds itself in the middle of the second
decade of the 21st century. They maintain that the high level of corruption is the main
factor causing the overall “crisis” Russia is currently facing
. The Medvedev and Putin governments have however
taken some measures to combat corruption and change foreigners’ perceptions that
Russia is not an easy place to do business. In 2010, Medvedev signed the OECD’s Anti-
Bribery Convention, even though Russia is only a partner of this powerful economic
organization.
21
Russian society has undergone substantial changes in its structure and stratification
and these are still in progress. With the development of global mass communication
technologies and increased access to independent sources of information, post-
. The distain for the state
apparatus, which is felt by the vast majority of Russians, is slowing down the
modernization of political institutions. The ruling power has ‘slept through’ the social
changes brought about by a combination of a transitional economy and the loss of
safety mechanisms for the vulnerable.
18 Blass, Tom (2007). Combating Corruption and Political Influence in Russia’s Court System. Global
Corruption Report 2007: Corruption in Judicial Systems. Transparency International. Cambridge
University Press, pp. 31-34; Gilinskiy, Yakov (2006). Crime in Contemporary. European Journal of
Criminology Russia, Vol. 3, p. 259.
19 Corruption Perceptions Index 2013. Transparency International. (2013). Available at:
https://www.transparency.org/cpi2013/results
20 INSOR Experts Focus Attention on Fight Against Corruption. (2008). Institute of Contemporary
Development (INSOR), June 26. Available at: http://www.insor-russia.ru/en/_news/890
21 INSOR Experts Focus Attention on Fight Against Corruption. (2008). Institute of Contemporary
Development (INSOR), June 26. Available at: http://www.insor-russia.ru/en/_news/890
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Communist citizens have come out of hibernation and started developing skills in
grassroots self-organization. Millions of middle class workers and hundreds of youth
groups, radicalized by a lack of opportunities to improve their social status, have joined
up with the opposition intelligentsia. In fact, the stereotypical image of Russians’
incapacity to react and take to the street when confronted with their government’s
abuses and incompetence was shown to be a thing of the past during Putin’s third term
as president in May 2012.
In reaction to what was perceived as widespread election fraud, a number of parallel
institutions and social organizations sprung up to campaign against the authorities’
manipulation of the electoral process and other undemocratic undertakings during the
2012 election. Social networks and projects such as the “Online Parliament” quickly
gained popularity, often in response to the Kremlin’s blatant disregard of people’s
fundamental civil rights. This heedless form of elite rule explains in part why freedom
has been constantly decreasing22
Many analysts predict that the next few years will bring forth a dynamic opposition
force which might even surpass the one that swept away the USSR between 1986 and
1991
.
23. They conjecture that a serious deterioration of the economic situation and
revived social disturbances in the Northern Caucuses will be major catalysts to opening
the gates of discontent and letting loose a flood of political activism within Russian
society. In the context of the crisis in Eastern Ukraine, and the economic sanctions that
the EU and the U.S. have imposed on Russia in retaliation, the year 2015 may indeed
be extremely dangerous for the Kremlin. This is the opinion of Igor Yurgens, Chairman
of the Management Board of INSOR, who has openly acknowledged that Russia is “in a
recession now, and soon we’ll be in a free fall”24
International economic conditions have the potential to play a dynamic part in Russia’s
future. Growing global interdependence has caused the country’s economic growth to
become more dependent on foreign trade, forcing it to pay more attention to its
competitiveness in world markets. Meanwhile, the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009
painfully disclosed the fallibility of resource-based economies.
.
The 8% decrease in GDP that Russia experienced in the wake of the 2008-2009 world
economic crisis has brought about the realization among Kremlin insiders that not only
is proper trade diversification of paramount necessity but encompassing economic
modernization must be implemented promptly. There are serious economic
vulnerabilities, not least Russia’s heavy dependence on the export of its natural
resources and the weakness of its manufacturing, service and hi-tech industries.
Russia’s educational, scientific and technological potential, like the industrial facilities
inherited from the Soviet Union, have either run their course or been exhausted. Many
22 Livejournal, Online Parliament and Freedom House. (2011). The Voice of Russia, April 21. Available at:
http://sputniknews.com/voiceofrussia/radio_broadcast/36172287/49273362/?link-1
23 See Fauconnier, Clémentine (2011). Conflit et Compétition Politiques Dans La “Démocratie Souveraine” :
L’Opposition Vue Par Russie Unie. Revue d’études comparatives Est-Ouest, 42 (1), March, p. 17-36;
Narizhnaya, Khristina (2013); Russians Go West. The World Policy Journal, March 30, p. 95-103. At
available: http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/spring2013/russians-go-west ; Caracciolo, Lucio (2015).
Democratorship: The Ancient Heart of Putin’s Regime. Stratfor, March 27. Available at:
https://www.stratfor.com/the-hub/democratorship-ancient-heart-putin%E2%80%99s-regime
24 Yurgens, Igor (2014). We Are in a Recession Now, and Soon We’ll Be in a Free Fall. Institute of
Contemporary Development (INSOR), November 19. Available at: http://www.insor-
russia.ru/en/_news/11319
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are no longer appropriate to the global economy, and have no place in a world of fierce
competition between states, economies of scale and outsourcing.
Different Factions
Russia is thus facing another historic turning point. What political and economic
direction should it now pursue? The specter of unfinished modernization processes has
hung over the country since the time of Peter the Great in the early 18th century and
the dilemmas faced by former and present elites are almost identical in terms of goals
and constraints.
Russian political leaders, as so often in their country’s history, are seeking some kind of
magic economic formula which will satisfy everyone while preserving the political and
economic status quo. Many believe a return to the pre-crisis situation is possible, while
others are of the opinion that inertia will result in an uncontrolled and detrimental chain
reaction which could nevertheless finally bring true democracy to Russia25
A good number of alarmist reports and analysis share a common conclusion: deep
political changes, in particular an unwavering turn towards democratization and the
rule of law, are necessary ingredients for a broader economic recovery and social well-
being
.
26. Only such modernization will enable a cultural transformation decisive enough
for the creation of a solid modern Russian identity and, from a legal point of view, a
state based on the respect towards the law27. Russia must take the Westernization
track again in order to change the political tyranny of the few into a new value-based
political system conducive to good governance, responsible leadership, innovation,
efficiency and freedom28
Classifying the ruling elite into two factions – conservative and liberal – is an
oversimplification, as the political debate is many-sided within political circles. For
instance, the reactionary faction in the Kremlin defines modernization as a means of
optimizing the power of the current political regime, as it improves its ability to rule the
country. Belief in a long term and stable ‘contract’ between the state and the people is
emblematic of this view of modernization. However, such a paradigm does not preclude
liberal economic policies, a multi-party system and the use of social mobilization in
bringing about economic modernization to catch up with the West – and now with many
East and Southeast Asian countries – such as President Medvedev’s “modernization
program”, launched in 2009 but consigned to the past after 2012, exemplified
.
29
25 See Vstrecha s Vedushimi Rossiyskimi i Zarubezhnimi Politologami. (Meeting With the Leading Russian
and Foreign Political Science Experts). (2010). Available at:
.
www.kremlin.ru/news/8882; For a detailed
evaluation of relevant literature see: Diskin, Iosif (2009). Krizis... I Vse Zhe Modernizatsiya! (Crisis... Yet
It’s Still Modernization!). Moscow: “Evropa” Publishing House, p. 7-16.
26 See Aslund, Anders (2009). Why Market Reform Succeeded and Democracy Failed in Russia. Social
Research, Spring; Russia’s Economy to Reach Pre-Crisis Level by Late 2012. (2009). RIA Novosti,
December 16. Available at : http://en.rian.ru/business/20091216/157255443.html
27 Rousseau, R. (2015). Russia’s Attempt To Deliver Democratic Transition Is A Non-Starter. Eurasia Review,
News & Analysis, July 14. Available at: http://www.eurasiareview.com/14072015-russias-attempt-to-
deliver-democratic-transition-is-a-non-starter-analysis
28 See Lindley-French, J. (2014). Greater Russia: How Moscow Exploits and Misunderstands History. The
Europe’s World, Match 17. Available at: http://europesworld.org/2014/03/17/greater-russia-how-
moscow-exploits-and-misunderstands-history/#.Ve5wn_mSyRQ
29 Andrey Issayev, Andrei (2011). Konservatizm: Oplot Modernizacii. (Conservatisme: The Pilar of
Modernisation). Vestnik Edinoy Rossii, 4 (83), April, p. 2.
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In foreign policy, the conservative faction’s perception of Russia’s place on the world
stage borrows from Samuel Huntington’s concept of a “Clash of Civilizations”: the
“Eurasian civilization” against the “European”. It also assumes that the current
international system is characterized by multipolarity and the predominance of military
power over what is now commonly called “soft power”.
The “Conservationists”, as they are often referred to in the Russian media, are not a
homogenous group. There are advocates of cosmetic changes and proponents of tabula
rasa (the “ultras,” so to say) who advocate starting with a blank slate. The “Chekists”
and “orthodox” factions believe that democracy and liberalism pose a deadly threat to
Russia30. To some extent, the conservative modernization strand, in which the Russian
Communist Party could be included, is ideologically close to the thoughts of the Russian
traditionalists. It comes as no surprise that state bureaucracies, defense and law
enforcement institutions as well as the army and large state-owned enterprises,
especially in the natural resources sector and the military-industrial complex, have
proven themselves bastions of conservatism31
For its part, the ‘liberal’ faction within the ruling party, United Russia, which emanated
from the Soviet and post-Yeltsin institutional structures (i.e., the Soviet and the post-
Soviet nomenklatura) has a narrow view on modernization: it sees gradual political
transition and liberal economic reforms as the means for preventing sudden and costly
political revolutions, especially as the nation’s temper is expected to become
increasingly restive and assertive
.
32
The current situation in Russia is a remnant of – and reminiscent of – many wasted
historic chances to modernize Russia for good and never look back. Such personalities
as Nikolai Speranski, Pyotr Stolypin and Boris Chicherin, known as reformers in Russian
history, strove to update Russia’s political, social and economic fabric at the turn of the
20th century. The program of the historical Kadet Party (Constitutional Democratic
Party) in the early months of the February Revolution of 1917 put forward reformist
ideas which are still relevant in today’s Russia
.
33
During the 2011 celebration of the 150th anniversary of the Emancipation of the Serfs,
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev identified himself with the modernizing tsar,
Alexander II. The ‘liberals’ of today are loyalists who adhere to Pushkin’s 19th century
famous phrase: “the only European in Russia is the government”. The impulse for
reform, they believe, must come from above in response to the cultural process that
comes from below. A contemporary political scientist would call this a “top-down
approach” – the only one used in the last two centuries in Russia
.
34
Despite some dithering over the reform issue, enlightened Russian technocrats,
politicians and academics of today (Grigory Yavlinski, Anatoly Chubais, Mikhail
Kasyanov, Alexei Kudrin, the late opposition politician Boris Nemtsov etc.) back a policy
.
30 Idem.
31 Kateb, Alexandre (2014). La Russie, l’Europe et l’Émergence d’un Monde Multipolaire. La Tribune, August
19. Available at : http://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/20140819trib000844968/la-russie-l-europe-
et-l-emergence-d-un-monde-multipolaire.html
32 See: Russia After Nemtsov. Uncontrolled Violence (2015). The Economist, March 7.
33 See Tuminez, Astrid (2000). Russian Nationalism Since 1856: Ideology and the Making of Foreign Policy.
Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
34 See Kennedy, Paul T., and Danks, Catherine J. (2001). Globalization and National Identities: Crisis or
Opportunity? Houndsmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire. New York: Palgrave; Kortunov, S. (1998). Russia’s
Way: National Identity and Foreign Policy. International Affairs: A Russian Journal, 44, no. 4.
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of integration with transatlantic institutions, although which institutions they mean is
not specified. They consider Russia to be an integral part of Europe, and their hope for
completing Peter the Great’s work rests on the establishment and burgeoning of a truly
Russian middle class35. Under Medvedev’s presidency, the liberal faction relied on the
so-called program of the “four Is” or four key areas: Institutions, Infrastructure,
Innovation, and Investment. Establishing the conditions for the development of small
and medium-size businesses was a cornerstone of this program36
It is not far-fetched to imagine a political faction uniting the new faces of the
democratic opposition (the oppositionist intelligentsia, mostly anti-Putin) and the
Kremlin’s liberal faction, however small and shadowy it is, and presenting a
modernizing platform to the leaders of political institutions and the people. For this to
happen, however, the two camps will have to pour some water into their wine. The
oppositionist intelligentsia considers the liberal faction to be a PR project and liberal in
name only, which, in fact, serves to strengthen the existing status quo. Yuri Afanasiev,
a famous Russian historian, gave an interview to Ukrainian Week in 2012 in which he
dissected the alleged liberalization mission of the liberal camp and drew the conclusion
that expectations of real reforms are overdone
.
37
The conflict between Kremlin factions about how to respond to Russia’s decline in
competitiveness has been intensifying in the wake of the 2007-2008 American-born
global economic slowdown. Under these dire circumstances, ongoing squabbles about
ideas and strategies of modernization are being used by the political classes to try to
strengthen their position within the different factions. Nevertheless, the sheer
effervescence among the growing middle class implies that a large number of Russians
are now mobilized on issues of far-reaching political and economic importance, such as
public-private ownership, the authoritarian political system, the corrupt and
criminalized economy, government – federal and regional – accountability, infringement
on press freedom and on the independence of the justice system.
.
The public debate has become infused with a new dignity and with new policy options.
This unique development became more apparent in the run-up to the elections to the
December 2011 State Duma and the 2012 presidential election. Russia now faces a
momentous political crisis. The abuses of the Putin regime are so numerous that,
without profound change, the protest movement is unlikely to be stopped. However, it
is doubtful Putin will agree to reforms that would threaten his hold on power. The stage
is therefore set for a protracted conflict between Putin and the opposition.
Along with political and socioeconomic changes, Russian identity needs to evolve, or
else modernization will continue to be nothing more than an empty buzzword which fills
campaign rhetoric and gets invoked for political gain. The root of Russia’s dilemma is
the total absence of any modern and integrated social or cultural binding force – using
propaganda dating from the Great Patriotic War and Russia’s imperial past does not
play a major role in shaping a national collective mindset geared towards a
modernization project. That’s why, for many, future hopes lie in the initiatives of civic
associations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to de-totalitarianize Russia
35 Vstrecha s Vedushimi Rossiyskimi i… Op. Cit.
36 See Rousseau, R. (2011). Modernization of Russia: Real or a Pipedream? G8 Summit Magazine, June.
Available at: http://www.scribd.com/doc/55959348/1/G8-G20-France-2011-New-World-New-Ideas
37 Afanasyev, Yuri (2012). Russia Is Ruled by Feudalism. Ukrainian Week, February 13. Available at:
http://ukrainianweek.com/World/42179
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and safeguard the country from renewed authoritarian tendencies like Communism and
Stalinism or their offspring.
Conclusion
The current economic recession, magnified by the Western sanctions, will unleash
social tension throughout the vast Russian territory, although the likelihood of a serious
political disruption is low in the short term. The capital of trust that Putin enjoys since
his first presidency will not quickly melt away. Russians still remember that he
managed to raise their living standards throughout the 2000s.
In addition, the armada of “political technologists” working for the Kremlin is constantly
on its toes to find ways to divide and exercise mounting pressure on the opposition.
When opposition leader Alexey Navalny filed for permission to hold an anti-crisis
protest on March 1, 2014, the political technologists made sure that the Communist
Party and about ten other groups held protest that same day, a classic post-Soviet
states’ tactic38
As inflation kicks in and the ruble’s value stays low against other currencies, Putin’s and
the ruling party’s reputation of being competent in running the economy will fade away.
The modernization of Russia’s political and economic systems has been put on the back
burner in 2011 and reliance on nationalism, repression and frustration against the West
will be the preferred strategy for the years to come.
. After 15 years in power, they have become masters in the art of
silencing the voices of those who take a critical view of the government’s policies.
The Russian transition was an attempt to provide an institutional framework for
pluralism in society, to guarantee property rights and to overcome Russia’s isolation
from global processes. While democratic institutions have appeared, however wobbly
and incomplete, it will take longer for the democratic culture and economic structures
that can sustain them to emerge, for the unwritten rules of convention to impress
themselves onto the written word of the constitution. The first post-communist Russian
leadership laid the foundations of a new political order in the belief that Russian could
only enter world civilization if it remade its own. In the second decade of the twenty-
first century it was clear that both Russia and the world face challenges that cannot be
resolved in isolation from each other.
38 Englund, Will (2014). In Moscow, Tens of Thousands Turn Out to Protest Russian Intervention in Ukraine.
The Washington Post, March 15. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/in-
moscow-tens-of-thousands-turn-out-to-protest-russian-intervention-in-ukraine/2014/03/15/a3b35c34-
caa3-49ee-9612-d6e883535eb8_story.html
