OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026
568
BALANCING PEACE-BUILDING STRATEGIES IN NIGERIA: APPRAISING THE
IMPACT OF THE RULE OF LAW VS MILITARY SPENDING
MUHAMMED A. OBOMEGHIE
maoisdg@yahoo.com
He obtained his fist Doctorate degree (Ph.D) in Economic Statistics from the International
University, Bamenda (IUB). He further proceeded to Edo State University Uzairue where he
bagged another Doctorate degree (Ph.D) in Applied Econometrics. He joined the services of Auchi
Polytechnic Auchi (Nigeria). He has published many journal articles in reputable journals. He has
also presented many conference papers within and outside Nigeria. He is the author of many
textbooks, both in statistics and Economics. He belongs to many academic and professional
bodies both local and international.
Abstract
The drive for peace in any country is and has been a cardinal policy of the country’s
government. In recent years, Nigeria has faced a myriad of security challenges which has
necessitated its policy managers to increase the country’s military expenditure while also
strengthening its rule of law. This work unveils the impact of the rule of law versus military
expenditure on Nigeria’s peace-building experience. The fully modified OLS technique is used
in analyzing the data collected. Data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical
bulletin, World Justice Project data-base and the World development indicator data-base. The
data covered the period from 2006 to 2023. The findings from the analysis indicates that both
the rule of law and military spending impact positively on peace-building in Nigeria, however,
the rule of law has more impact on peace-building than increased military spending. It is
recommended that Nigeria’s rule of law should be strengthened. However, an effort to
strengthen the rule of law coupled with responsible military spending is required to create a
comprehensive framework for peace-building. It is further recommended that policy makers
should adopt a coordinated approach that aligns security spending, legal reform, and social
investment strategies in peace-building. Finally regular assessment of peace indices and
related variables should be undertaken to guide policy adjustments.
Keywords
Peace-building, Military spending, Rule of law, Social investment, Peace indices.
Resumo
A busca pela paz em qualquer país é, e sempre foi, uma política fundamental do governo
nacional. Nos últimos anos, a Nigéria tem enfrentado uma miríade de desafios de segurança,
o que levou os responsáveis políticos a aumentar as despesas militares do país, reforçando
simultaneamente o Estado de direito. Este trabalho revela o impacto do Estado de direito, em
comparação com as despesas militares, na experiência de construção da paz na Nigéria. A
técnica OLS totalmente ajustada é utilizada na análise dos dados recolhidos. Os dados para o
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
569
estudo foram recolhidos a partir do boletim estatístico do CBN, da base de dados do World
Justice Project e da base de dados dos Indicadores de Desenvolvimento Mundial. Os dados
abrangem o período de 2006 a 2023. Os resultados da análise indicam que tanto o Estado de
direito como as despesas militares têm um impacto positivo na construção da paz na Nigéria;
no entanto, o Estado de direito tem um impacto maior na construção da paz do que o aumento
das despesas militares. Recomenda-se que o Estado de direito na Nigéria seja reforçado. No
entanto, é necessário um esforço para reforçar o Estado de direito, aliado a gastos militares
responsáveis, para criar um quadro abrangente para a construção da paz. Recomenda-se
ainda que os decisores políticos adotem uma abordagem coordenada que alinhe os gastos
com a segurança, a reforma legal e as estratégias de investimento social na construção da
paz. Por fim, deve ser realizada uma avaliação regular dos índices de paz e das variáveis
relacionadas para orientar os ajustes políticos.
Palavras-chave
Construção da paz, Despesas militares, Estado de direito, Investimento social, Índices de paz.
How to cite this article
Obomeghie, Muhammed A. (2026). Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the
Impact of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending. Janus.net, e-journal of international relations, VOL.
17, Nº. 1, May 2026, pp. 568-594. https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.17.1.29
Article submitted on 8 July 2025 and accepted on 1 December 2025.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
570
BALANCING PEACE-BUILDING STRATEGIES IN NIGERIA:
APPRAISING THE IMPACT OF THE RULE OF LAW VS MILITARY
SPENDING
MUHAMMED A. OBOMEGHIE
Introduction
Nigeria has been confronted by threats that are multifaceted, often intertwined and vary
across regions although with similar experiences. Such threats includes; Terrorism and
insurgency (Rosenje, et.al, 2022), Crime and transnational organized crimes (UNODC,
2021). Political instability and armed conflicts that threaten to undermine state authority
and hinder development (United Nations, 2020). Ethnic and sectarian violence often
rooted in historical grievances and resource competition which have led to periodic
violence and displacement (Ottoh, 2018). Economic and cyber threats (Akinola & Liaga,
2024), as well as, Public health threats occasioned by outbreaks of infectious diseases
such as Ebola, COVID-19, and other pandemics (WHO, 2025). The most prominent
among Nigeria security challenges is the insurgency by Boko Haram, an extremist group
that emerged in northeastern Nigeria around 2009, leading to thousands of deaths and
displacing millions (Onuoha, 2025). In addition to Boko Haram and its splinter group,
ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), Nigeria contends with ethnic and communal
violence, particularly in the Middle Belt and Niger Delta regions, driven by resource
disputes, land conflicts, and political competition (Akinola, (2011). Socio-economic issues
like poverty, unemployment, governance deficits, and marginalization contribute to the
persistence of violence and extremism. Criminal activities such as kidnapping for ransom,
cattle rustling, and organized crime further exacerbates insecurity (Olejeme, et.al,
(2025)).
Nigeria has adopted a multifaceted approach to peace-building, recognizing that
sustainable peace requires addressing the root causes of conflict, promoting
reconciliation, and strengthening governance. Example of such approaches adopted
includes; i) Regional and international peacekeeping missions, through regional
peacekeeping operations under the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN). ii)
Dialogue and reconciliation initiatives often focused on national dialogues and
reconciliation processes to foster social cohesion. iii) Strengthening governance and state
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
571
institutions. iv) Peace education and community engagement as well as, conflict
prevention and early warning systems (Essia, 2025).
The Nigerian government has employed a combination of military operations, dialogue,
and development programs to address these challenges. Military efforts include the
counter-insurgency campaigns by the Nigerian Armed Forces and the Multinational Joint
Task Force (MNJTF) targeted at Boko Haram and ISWAP. Simultaneously, peace
initiatives such as amnesty programs for repentant Boko Haram and ISWAP members,
as well as, in the Niger Delta and community engagement have sought to foster
reconciliation and development (Toye, 2023).
Nigeria’s pursuit of peace has been a central theme in its post-colonial development
trajectory. Given Nigeria’s history of colonialism, conflict, and political instability, the
country have continuously sought sustainable peace through various strategies,
frameworks, and initiatives. This quest is driven by the recognition that peace is
foundational for development, stability, and the well-being of its peoples. The
effectiveness of peace-building efforts remains limited due to the inability to address root
causes such as poverty, marginalization, and political exclusion, raising concerns about
the sustainability of peace and security in Nigeria (Akinola, 2011). Despite these
strategies, challenges such as persistent violence, political instability, and resource
constraints continue to impede peace efforts.
Research Objectives
The first objective for undertaking this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of rule of
law-based peace strategies in Nigeria. The rule of law is a cornerstone of sustainable
peace and development, particularly in regions characterized by political instability,
conflict, and fragile governance structures. In Nigeria, where diverse conflicts have
persisted over decades, peace-building efforts increasingly emphasize strengthening the
rule of law as a central strategy. This approach aims to establish justice, accountability,
and legal reforms that foster social stability and prevent recurrence of violence. However,
the effectiveness of rule of law-based peace strategies varies across different contexts
and requires comprehensive evaluation to understand their impact, limitations, and
potential for future application (Foley, 2020). Rule of law-based peace strategies rest on
core principles such as equality before the law, independence of the judiciary, access to
justice, and legal accountability for human rights violations. These strategies often
include institutional reforms, legal capacity building, transitional justice mechanisms, and
community-based justice initiatives. The underlying assumption is that establishing
justice and legal order reduces grievances, mitigates conflict, and sustains peace over
the long term.
Efforts to reform judicial systems (improving accessibility, independence, and efficiency)
have yielded mixed results. Countries like Ghana and Botswana have made notable
progress in judicial independence, which correlates with increased public trust and
peaceful dispute resolution. Conversely, in countries like Nigeria with weak institutions,
corruption, political interference, and resource have constraints undermine judicial
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
572
effectiveness, thereby limiting peace dividends (Azoro, et al. 2021). Although in many
Nigeria societies, customary law and traditional conflict resolution mechanisms
complement formal legal systems. When integrated effectively, they can enhance local
participation, cultural relevance, and sustainability of peace efforts. For instance, in
Nigeria’s northern regions, traditional councils have played roles in mediating disputes.
However, tensions between customary laws and formal legal standards can sometimes
hinder justice or perpetuate inequalities, especially concerning gender rights.
The second objective for undertaking this study is to analyze the impact of military
expenditure and operations on peace-building in Nigeria. The evaluation of the impact of
military expenditure and operations on peace-building reveals a profound tension
between the necessity of short-term security and the imperative of long-term sustainable
peace and development. While military action is often the prerequisite for ending
violence, excessive reliance on militarization can actively undermine the political,
economic, and social foundations required for peace to endure. (Garikai & Mahuku, 2022)
Military operations aimed at countering insurgency and violence can restore order and
protect civilians, but if not carefully managed, they risk causing civilian casualties,
eroding trust, and exacerbating conflicts. The effectiveness of military actions depends
on their integration with political, social, and economic strategies that address root
causes of instability. Overall, a balanced approach that aligns military efforts with
comprehensive peace-building measures, respect for human rights, and fostering
community engagement is vital for sustainable peace. Strategic and transparent use of
military resources can support peace objectives, while over-militarization may hinder
long-term stability. Military operations, both national counter-insurgency and
International Peacekeeping Operations (PKOs), provide vital immediate security but
introduce risks to the rule of law and political trust.
According to Saba & Ngepah (2019), the core negative impact of military spending lies
in its opportunity cost and contribution to regional instability, for example, military
budgets divert massive resources from essential social and development sectors like
health, education, and infrastructure. This undermines the root causes of conflict
(poverty, inequality, and underdevelopment) and actively hinders the achievement of
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Equally, high spending often crowds-out private
investment, increases public debt, and has been empirically linked to lower long-term
economic growth in low-income states. This weakens the economic foundation necessary
for long-term political stability and state legitimacy. Finally, increased military budgets
are often perceived as a threat by neighbors, potentially triggering an arms race or
deepening regional mistrust (the security dilemma). The peace-building consequence is
that, it increases the risk of inter-state and internal conflict reoccurrence.
The third objective is to compare the outcomes of both the rule of law and military
approaches to peace-building. The evaluation of peace-building strategies in Nigeria
reveals that both rule of law (RoL) and military actions (expenditure/operations) are
necessary but profoundly different tools, each carrying inherent strengths and
weaknesses that determine their long-term effectiveness. The fundamental distinction is
between establishing security (military) and establishing legitimacy and sustainability
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
573
(rule of law). While challenges such as institutional weaknesses and resource constraints
exist, integrating rule of law with military strategies offers a promising pathway toward
sustainable peace in Nigeria. It requires committed political leadership, adequate
resources, and community engagement to harness these opportunities effectively
(Otaiku, 2018).
Significance of the Study
This study is significant as it provides critical insights into the effectiveness of Nigeria’s
current security strategies, particularly the debate between emphasizing the rule of law
versus increasing military expenditure. Understanding which approach yields more
sustainable peace and stability is vital for policy makers, security agencies, and civil
society to formulate balanced and effective security policies (Ikelegbe, 2014). By
evaluating the impact of military spending in comparison to rule of law initiatives, the
research offers evidence-based recommendations for optimizing resource allocation in
Nigeria’s peace-building efforts. Furthermore, the findings can contribute to academic
discourses on conflict resolution, governance, and security sector reform in Nigeria.
Finally, the study aims to enhance understanding of the interplay between military power
and legal-institutional approaches in fostering long-term peace.
Review of relevant previous studies on conflict and security
Nigeria’s quest for sustainable peace has been a complex journey characterized by
multiple approaches, primarily oscillating between strengthening the rule of law and
increasing military expenditure. The debate centers around which of the strategies is
more effective in fostering long-term stability amidst the ongoing internal conflicts,
insurgencies and communal violence. Peace initiatives refer to deliberate efforts aimed
at resolving conflicts, promoting reconciliation, and establishing sustainable peace
(Zailani, et al, 2025). In Nigeria, peace initiatives have ranged from community-based
approaches, legal reforms, and dialogue processes to military interventions. The
effectiveness of these initiatives depends heavily on the strategic emphasis, that is,
whether on reinforcing the rule of law or on military force.
The rule of law as a peace strategy
According Okengwu (2024), the rule of law is foundational to sustainable peace,
emphasizing justice, legal accountability, and institutional integrity. Advocates argue that
ensuring justice and protecting rights create an environment conducive to peace, social
cohesion, and political stability (Akinola, 2011). Nigeria’s legal framework, judicial
institutions, and rights-based approaches are seen as critical in addressing grievances
that often underlie conflicts, such as resource disputes, ethnic tensions, and political
exclusion (Toye, 2023).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
574
The challenges in operating an effective rule of law include; weak judicial institutions,
corruption, and inadequate enforcement of laws, which limit the effectiveness of rule of
law initiatives (Olejeme, et al, 2025). Moreover, many conflicts are rooted in socio-
economic grievances that legal reforms alone may not fully address.
Military expenditure and operations as a peace strategy
Military intervention has traditionally been Nigeria’s response to insurgencies and
violence, especially in the North-East with Boko Haram, and in the Niger Delta with
militant groups. Nigeria’s military spending has increased significantly over the years,
justified as necessary for national security and combating terrorism (Olejeme, et al,
2025). Proponents of military action on security issues such as Onuoha (2025), argue
that, a strong military is essential for deterring violence, protecting the state, and
restoring order swiftly during crises. Military solutions often provide quick responses to
threats and are visible symbols of state sovereignty.
On the other hand, critics contend that excessive reliance on military expenditure and
intervention can be counter-productive, potentially exacerbating conflicts by fostering
repression, human rights abuses, and alienation of communities. Moreover, military
approaches often address symptoms rather than root causes, risking a cycle of violence
and impunity (Okengwu, 2024).
The dichotomy and interplay between the two strategies
The ongoing debate in Nigeria revolves around whether peace can be achieved
predominantly through legal-institutional reforms or through military force. Scholars
argue that both strategies are necessary but must be balanced (Toye, 2023). While
military action may be necessary to contain immediate threats, long-term peace depends
on strengthening the rule of law, promoting justice, and addressing socio-economic
inequalities. Recent policy shifts suggest the recognition of this interplay, with some
initiatives combining military operations with community engagement, legal reforms, and
development programs. For example, the Nigerian government’s counter-insurgency
strategy includes military operations alongside reconciliation and reconstruction efforts
in affected regions.
Theories of Peace and Conflict
Understanding the dynamics of peace initiatives in Nigeria requires examining underlying
theories that explain how different approaches (rule of law versus military force)
contribute to peace and stability. This framework examines relevant theories to analyze
the effectiveness, limitations, and interplay of these strategies. Some peace and conflict
theories are examined below;
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
575
Human Needs Theory
The human needs theory is a perspective in conflict resolution and peace-building that
emphasizes the importance of addressing fundamental human needs as a pathway to
achieving lasting peace. It posits that conflicts often arise when basic human needs are
unmet, and resolving conflicts requires satisfying these needs. The theory has roots in
the works of psychologists and conflict theorists such as Manfred Steger, John Burton,
and others who viewed conflicts as stemming from unmet human needs rather than solely
from material or political grievances. (Burton, 1990).
The core principles of human needs theory includes; i) Universal human needs, which
asserts that certain needs are universal and must be fulfilled for individuals and groups
to coexist peacefully such as, security, identity, participation, development and well-
being, ii) Conflict as unmet needs, this principle affirm that conflicts emerge when these
fundamental needs are frustrated or unmet. For example, ethnic conflicts often involve
threats to identity and recognition. iii) Addressing needs for peace, which states that
achieving peace involves creating conditions that satisfy these needs, thereby reducing
the motivation for conflict and violence.
The strengths of human needs theory is embedded in the following values; a) It adopts
a holistic approach by looking beyond material aspects to psychological and social needs
.b) It is inclusive because it recognizes the importance of identity, recognition, and
participation. c) It prevents conflict recurrence by satisfying fundamental needs, it
reduces the likelihood of future conflicts. d) It is flexible because it can be applied across
cultures and contexts.
The limitations and criticisms of the human needs theory include the fact that, it does
not always account for power dynamics, economic interests, or political agendas. Equally,
satisfying needs can be complex, especially when interests are deeply entrenched.
Finally, different groups may prioritize needs differently thereby complicating
negotiations.
In the Nigeria context, human needs theory offers valuable insights for peace-building,
especially in post-conflict societies where issues of identity, recognition, and security are
prominent. For instance, addressing the needs for security and recognition among
marginalized ethnic groups can reduce tensions. Participatory governance can fulfill the
need for participation and agency. Social and economic development can meet basic
needs for well-being. In conclusion, the human needs theory emphasizes that lasting
peace depends on satisfying the core needs of individuals and groups. Its holistic
perspective makes it a powerful tool in conflict resolution, particularly in complex and
diverse societies like those in Nigeria. However, effective application requires careful
understanding of specific needs, contextual factors, and power dynamics (Clerk, 1990).
Structural Violence Theory
Introduced by Galtung in 1969, this theory highlights systemic inequalities embedded
within social structures. It suggests that conflicts are rooted in structural violence,
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
576
inequities in resource distribution, political exclusion, and social injustice. The rule of law
initiatives is better aim to dismantle structural violence by promoting equitable justice,
whereas military approaches may inadvertently reinforce structural inequalities through
repression. (Henderson, 2019).
Structural violence is a form of violence where social arrangements such as, economic,
political, legal, and cultural structures cause harm by limiting access to resources, rights,
and opportunities. It manifests through disparities in wealth, education, healthcare,
political participation, and legal justice, leading to inequality and social suffering. Because
it is embedded in societal systems, structural violence often remains unseen or
unrecognized, making it difficult to address directly. The Key Dimensions of the structural
violence theory are; economic inequality, political oppression, legal discrimination,
cultural and social norms, institutionalization, normalization, deprivation and
marginalization (Weber & Pickering, 2011).
The relevance of SVT to peace and conflict studies includes the fact that in the first
instance, structural violence is often the root cause of conflicts, as grievances stemming
from inequality and injustice accumulate over time. Equally, effective peace-building
requires addressing structural violence by reforming social, political, and economic
institutions to promote equity and justice. Finally, recognizing and combating structural
violence aligns with the promotion and protection of human rights.
According to Hirschfeld, (2017), the critiques and limitations of the SVT include: i) The
concept can be criticized for its abstractness and difficulty in measuring or pinpointing
specific sources. ii) It emphasizes systemic issues, which may overlook individual agency
or immediate violence. iii) Addressing structural violence often requires deep societal
reforms, which can be slow and politically challenging.
In summary the structural violence theory offers a comprehensive framework for
understanding how social arrangements perpetuate harm and inequality. Recognizing
these hidden forms of violence is crucial for developing sustainable strategies for peace,
justice, and social development, especially in contexts like Nigeria, where historical and
systemic inequalities continue to impact social cohesion.
Traditional Security Theory
Traditional security theory is one of the earliest and most influential frameworks in the
field of security studies. Rooted primarily in realist thought, it emphasizes the protection
of the state from external military threats and views security as a matter of national
defense and sovereignty. This approach has historically shaped international security
policies and military strategies.
According to Bartley (2023), the core principles of traditional security theory are;
- State-centric focus, which means that, the primary actor in traditional security is
the nation-state. The main concern is safeguarding territorial integrity and political
sovereignty.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
577
- Military power and defense, which entails that, military strength is seen as the
most effective means of ensuring security, as such a strong defense posture
deters potential aggressors and maintains stability.
- Anarchy in the international system, this posits that, the international system is
anarchic, meaning no overarching authority governs states. In such a system,
states must rely on their own capabilities for security.
- Security dilemma, which means that, actions taken by one state to enhance its
security (e.g., increasing military capabilities) can threaten others, leading to an
arms race. This cyclical process can escalate tensions and conflict.
- Balance of power which posits that, stability is maintained when power is
distributed relatively evenly among states; hence alliances and military build-ups
serve to prevent dominance by any single actor.
The fundamental components of the traditional security theory are; military deterrence,
strategic defense, and alliances. For example during the cold war era which was
dominated by the bipolar confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union
with emphasis on nuclear deterrence (Mutually Assured Destruction - MAD) as a means
of maintaining peace was the order of the day. However, during the post-cold war era,
there is a shift towards addressing new threats but still heavily reliant on military
capabilities for security assurance.
The criticisms of traditional security theory are that; firstly, there is an overemphasis on
military aspects thereby neglecting non-military threats like economic instability,
environmental crises, and human security. Secondly, is the issue of state-centric view,
which mean the roles of non-state actors, international organizations, and transnational
issues are ignored. Thirdly is the problem of potential for escalation, this is because arms
races and militarization can increase the risk of conflict. Finally is the issue of limited
scope, because it fails to address the root causes of conflicts such as social injustice,
inequality, and ecological degradation (Attina, 2016). In summary, traditional security
theory remains a fundamental concept in understanding state behavior and military
strategy. While it provides valuable insights into defense and deterrence, modern security
challenges require integrating broader perspectives that encompass non-military threats
and human security concerns.
Realist Theory
Realist theory, also known as “Realism” is one of the most influential paradigms in
international relations. It emphasizes the competitive and conflictual nature of
international politics, viewing states as primary actors motivated by national interests,
particularly security and power. In international relations, realism emphasizes state
security and the primacy of military power (Sagir, 2024). From this perspective,
increasing military expenditure is justified as essential for national security, deterring
threats, and maintaining sovereignty. Nigeria’s focus on military strength aligns with
realist assumptions that security is achieved through force.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
578
The major assumptions of realist theory includes; i) Anarchic international system, ii)
States as rational actors, iii) Primacy of sovereignty, iv) Power and security, v) Interest-
driven behavior. According to (Donnelly, 2000), there are two main types of realism
namely;
Classical realism: It emphasizes human nature as the root cause of conflict and power
struggles among states. Thinkers like Hans Morgenthau argue that human greed and
ambition drive state behavior (Altman, et, al. 2018).
Neorealism (Structural realism) Developed by Kenneth Waltz, it shifts focus from human
nature to the anarchic international structure as the determinant of state behavior. The
distribution of power (unipolar, bipolar, multipolar) shapes international outcomes (
Schweller, 1997).
The strengths of realist theory revolve round the fact that; a) It provides a realistic lens
to analyze state behavior, especially in security and conflict studies. b) It explains why
states pursue military buildup, alliances, and strategic interests. c) Many international
events, such as Cold War rivalries, align with realist principles.
Critics of the realist theory hinged their arguments on the fact that realism
underestimates cooperation, diplomacy, and international institutions’ roles. Also, it
downplays domestic politics, culture, and economic factors influencing state behavior.
Finally, its focus on power and self-interest can justify unethical actions and ignore
human rights. As well, realism often portrays international politics as zero-sum,
overlooking the potential for mutual gains. Despite its criticisms, realism remains
relevant, especially in analyzing power politics, military conflicts, and strategic alliances.
It offers valuable insights into the behavior of major powers like the US, China, and
Russia in contemporary geopolitics. In summary, the realist theory provides a
foundational framework for understanding international relations by emphasizing power,
security, and state interests in an anarchic system. While it offers pragmatic explanations
for conflict and competition, it must be complemented with other perspectives to fully
grasp the complexities of global politics.
Liberal Peace Theory (LPT)
Liberal peace advocates argue that sustainable peace is rooted in democratic governance,
rule of law, and socio-economic development (Paris, 2004). It emphasizes building legal
and institutional frameworks to prevent conflicts from re-emerging, suggesting that
peace is best preserved through legal reforms, justice, and human rights. The liberal
peace theory is a prominent paradigm in international relations and peace studies,
advocating that democracy, economic development, and respect for human rights are
essential for achieving and sustaining peace. Rooted in liberal political philosophy, the
theory posits that liberal democracies are less likely to go to war with each other and
that promoting liberal values globally can lead to a more peaceful world.
The main principles of liberal peace theory are; i) the theory assert that democratic
states, characterized by free elections, rule of law, and respect for civil liberties, are
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
579
inherently less inclined to engage in conflict with other democracies. This idea is
encapsulated in the "Democratic Peace Hypothesis." ii) economic openness and free
markets foster mutual dependencies among nations, reducing incentives for conflict.
Prosperous societies with strong economic ties are believed to prioritize diplomacy over
violence. iii) the protection of individual rights and the rule of law contribute to social
stability and reduce grievances that can lead to violence or insurgency. iv) International
organizations (e.g., UN, WTO) facilitate cooperation, dispute resolution, and enforcement
of rules, reinforcing peace-promoting norms.
The historical and theoretical foundations of the LPT is rested on; i) the liberal political
philosophy, this can be traced back to enlightenment thinkers like Immanuel Kant, who
in his essay Perpetual Peace (1795), argued that republican constitutions and
international federation could promote lasting peace. ii) Kantian peace. Kant's idea that
republican (democratic) states are more peaceful and that international federation
(global governance) can help prevent wars. iii) Modern development of the liberal theory.
The 20th and 21st centuries saw the rise of the liberal peace paradigm through post-
World War II efforts, including the expansion of democratic governance and global
economic integration (Terminski, 2010).
The main critiques and limitations of the LPT are;
- Western-centric bias: Critics argue that the theory reflects Western values and
may impose liberal models that are incompatible with local cultures or political
contexts.
- Democracy does not guarantee peace: Empirical evidence shows that democracies
can and do engage in conflicts, including humanitarian interventions and military
interventions.
- Neglect of structural factors: The theory underestimates economic inequalities,
historical grievances, ethnic tensions, and social injustices that can undermine
peace despite democratic or economic advancements.
- Overemphasis on formal institutions: Formal democratic and legal institutions
may exist without substantive social justice, leading to fragile peace or even
conflict.
On a final note, the liberal peace theory offers a compelling framework emphasizing the
importance of democracy, economic openness, and legal institutions for peace. While it
has contributed to global peace initiatives and democratization efforts, its limitations
highlight the need for context-sensitive approaches that consider local political, social,
and cultural realities. Effective peace-building requires not only promoting liberal values
but also addressing root causes of conflict beyond institutional reforms. (Miller, 2010).
Conflict Transformation Theory (CTT)
This theory is associated with Lederach (1997) who advocated for addressing root causes
(justice, social equity) alongside managing conflict escalation through security measures.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
580
This hybrid approaches recognize that both military strength and rule of law are
necessary, but their effectiveness depends on context, implementation, and balance.
Conflict transformation theory is a framework that redefines how conflicts are understood
and addressed. Unlike traditional approaches that focus primarily on managing or
resolving conflicts temporarily, CTT emphasizes transforming the underlying social
structures, relationships, and perceptions that produce conflict. It aims for sustainable
peace by fostering deep change at individual, relational, and systemic levels.
The cardinal principles of conflict transformation theory include;
a. A holistic approach. This entails that the CTT considers conflict as a complex social
phenomenon rooted in cultural, economic, political, and psychological factors. It
advocates for addressing these multiple dimensions simultaneously.
b. Focus on relationships. This principle emphasizes transforming relationships between
conflicting parties, fostering mutual understanding, respect, and cooperation.
c. Change at multiple levels. This principle posits that the CTT targets change at
personal, relational, structural, and cultural levels, recognizing that conflicts are
embedded in social systems.
d. Participation and empowerment. CTT emphasizes the promotion of inclusive
participation of all stakeholders, empowering marginalized groups and encouraging
active engagement in the peace process.
e. Long-term perspective. This approach aims for enduring change, not just short-term
conflict management or resolution.
f. Peace-building as a process. CTT sees peace as a process of ongoing growth, learning,
and adaptation, rather than a static outcome.
While conflict resolution often emphasizes negotiation, mediation, or cessation of
violence, conflict transformation broadens the scope to include social change and ongoing
development of positive relationships. It views conflict as an opportunity for growth and
societal improvement, rather than merely a problem to be solved.
The challenge of the CTT upon which it draws criticism includes the fact that, the
transformational processes are often slow and require sustained effort. Again, assessing
what constitutes "change" can be subjective and context-dependent. Equally, it requires
skilled facilitators and genuine stakeholder commitment. Finally, its lack of clear
quantifiable indicators, makes evaluation challenging.
On a final note, the conflict transformation theory offers a comprehensive and profound
approach to understanding and addressing conflicts. It emphasizes that lasting peace
arises from deep social, cultural, and structural change, not just the cessation of violence.
Its focus on relationships, participation, and systemic reform makes it a valuable
framework for sustainable peace-building, particularly in complex, protracted conflicts.
This theoretical framework underscores that peace drives in Nigeria are rooted in diverse
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
581
paradigms, those emphasizing justice, legal reforms, and social equity versus those
prioritizing security through military might. An effective peace strategy likely requires an
integrated model that combines the strengths of both approaches while addressing their
limitations, guided by theories that recognize the importance of legitimacy, social justice,
and security. (Botes, 2003).
Empirical review on how rule of law and military spending impact peace-
building
Nigeria’s approach to peace-building has involved a combination of legal reforms, judicial
initiatives, and military interventions. Empirical studies provide insights into the
effectiveness, limitations, and outcomes of these strategies in different conflict contexts.
Empirical evidence supporting the rule of law in peace-building
The work of Williams (2025) indicates that, reforming judicial institutions can reduce
conflict and violence by increasing access to justice and promoting accountability. For
example, in Liberia, post-civil war judicial reforms contributed to increased trust in state
institutions and reduced recurrence of violence. Similarly, studies such as Geraghty
(2020), show that countries with more effective, transparent legal systems tend to
experience higher levels of peace and stability. Rwanda's efforts to rebuild its justice
sector after the genocide, including gacaca courts and legal reforms, are associated with
national reconciliation and peace consolidation.
The UNDP report (2024) noted that, a positive correlation exists between the rule of law
and economic growth, which in turn supports peace. For example, in Kenya,
improvements in legal frameworks and property rights have been linked to increased
investment and social stability.
Finally, the empirical results of the work of Ayal, et al, (2025) also demonstrates that
legal measures such as land rights laws and anti-corruption statutes, help address
underlying grievances that fuel conflict. In Ethiopia, land reform laws contributed to
reducing land disputes and ethnic tensions
Despite positive evidence, challenges such as weak institutions, corruption, and political
interference hinder rule of law initiatives. Studies highlight that without genuine political
will and institutional capacity, rule of law reforms are often superficial and fail to produce
sustainable peace (Nharaunda-Makawa, 2022).
Empirical evidence supporting military expenditure/operations in
peace-building
Military efforts, including peacekeeping missions and targeted operations, have played a
significant role in stabilizing conflict zones and supporting peace-building in Nigeria.
According to Bellamy & Williams, (2020), African-led and international peacekeeping
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
582
missions have contributed to reducing violence and creating space for political processes.
For example, the United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL) and the African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) have been associated with reductions in hostilities and
progress toward peace agreements
Equally, studies by Onuoha, (2025), revealed that increased military expenditure,
especially in counter-insurgency, can deter violence and insurgency. In Nigeria, military
spending and operations have been crucial in countering Boko Haram, although with
mixed results regarding long-term stability. As well, Chafer, et al, (2020) discovered that
targeted military interventions can stabilize fragile states temporarily, providing a
foundation for subsequent political reconciliation. For example, in Mali, French military
operations (Operation Serval and Barkhane) helped regain control over territories held
by insurgents, enabling political processes to resume
Critics like Okengwu (2024) argue that military approaches often result in human rights
abuses, alienating local populations and fueling cycles of violence and distrust. Equally,
Zailani, et al, (2025) noted that, military solutions are often short-term, addressing
symptoms rather than root causes. Over-reliance on military expenditure can also divert
resources from development and social programs critical for long-term peace.
Despite positive contributions, empirical evidence also highlights risks such as
unintended escalation, dependency on military solutions, and undermining local
governance. The case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) demonstrates that
military operations without comprehensive political strategies may lead to cycles of
violence (Dunn, 2002).
Methodology
The methodology adopted in this research is the ex poste analysis, this is because it
allows researchers to analyze data that has already been collected, providing insights
based on actual events and outcomes rather than theoretical models. Equally, it is useful
in situations where experimental manipulation is unethical or impractical, such as
studying the effects of natural disasters or policy changes. Finally, it facilitates the
examination of trends and patterns over time, contributing to understanding long-term
effects and developments.
Analytical Framework
The analytical framework for the study is hypothesizes in the table 3.1 below;
Analyzing the impact of the rule of law and military spending on peace-building in Nigeria
requires a comprehensive framework that moves beyond simply measuring the presence
of laws and military might. It necessitates evaluating how RoL and military interventions
affect stability, governance, human security, and reconciliation.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
583
Table 1. Hypothesized analytical framework
Variable
Expected
sign
Rational
RLAW
Positive (+)
Stronger rule of law is associated with higher levels of peace.
(Kobayashi, et al, 2025)
MIL
Positive (+/-)
A well-funded military can act as a deterrent to conflict, thus
promoting peace. (Gromes 2025). Equally, military action may
result in human right abuses which may fuel other cycles of
violence and distrust thereby leading to more crises. (Okengwu,
2024)
Source: Authors compilation.
Table 1 shows that the impact of the rule of law on peace-building promotes stability and
order, builds credibility and trust in institutions, protects human rights and justice,
facilitates disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, prevents the re-emergence of
conflict, supports economic development and social justice, enhances international
support and cooperation. Hence it is expected that a positive relationship exist between
rule of law and peace-building.
On the other hand, it is observed that the impact of military spending on peace-building
could either be positive or negative depending on the aspect it leads to. On the positive
side, it enhanced security and stability, protection of peace agreements, support for
humanitarian operations. While on the negative side military intervention on peace-
building could lead to; perpetuation of arms race, undermining diplomatic solutions,
resource allocation issues as well as, fear and suspicion. In relations to this study, it is
expected that military spending will exhibit either a positive or negative relationship with
peace-building
Model Specifications
In this study, a fully modified OLS model based on the human needs theory earlier
mentioned is specified in line with similar study by Obomeghie (2025), and Wagner et,
al. (2020). The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS) is an econometric
technique developed by Engle and Granger (1987). It is designed specifically for
estimating long-run relationships among non-stationary, cointegrated variables. It
extends the traditional OLS method by making modifications to correct for issues like
endogeneity and serial correlation that commonly arise in time series data. FM-OLS
provides consistent, unbiased estimates of cointegrating vectors, enabling reliable
inference about long-term equilibrium relationships in macroeconomic and financial data.
The basic form of the fully modified ordinary least square is given as;
𝑃𝐸𝐼𝑡 = β0 + β1 𝑅𝐿𝐴𝑊𝑡 + β2 𝑀𝐼𝐿𝑡 + β3 𝑆𝐸𝑅𝑉𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡 -------------------------1
Where;
𝛽0 = Intercept
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
584
𝛽1𝛽2𝛽3 are the coefficient and
𝜀𝑡 is the error term.
Equation (1) is further transformed to the error correction model as follows;
∆𝑃𝐸𝐼𝑡 = β0 +∑𝛽1∆𝑅𝐿𝐴𝑊
𝑝
𝑖−1 𝑡−1 +∑𝛽2∆MIL
𝑝
𝑖−1 𝑡−1 +∑𝛽3∆SERV
𝑝
𝑖−1 𝑡−1 + 𝜆𝐸𝐶𝑇𝑡−1+𝜀𝑡 -----------2
Where;
∆ = First difference
P = Number of lags
𝜆 = Speed of adjustment
Justification for estimating a FM-OLS
The justification for using a FM-OLS in this study includes the fact that it;
- Corrects for endogeneity and serial correlation. While standard OLS estimates can
be biased and inconsistent when regressors are endogenous or when errors are
serially correlated. FM-OLS explicitly accounts for endogeneity arising from
correlation between regressors and error terms by modifying the OLS estimator,
leading to consistent estimates.
- Addresses serial correlation and endogeneity in error terms. In standard OLS,
serial correlation in errors can lead to inefficient estimates and invalid inference.
FM-OLS on the other hand, applies a non-parametric correction to eliminate serial
correlation and endogeneity bias, improving estimator efficiency.
- Provides asymptotically unbiased and consistent estimates in cointegrated
systems. When dealing with cointegrated time series, OLS estimates of the
cointegrating vector are biased in small samples. FM-OLS on the other hand
produces asymptotically unbiased and consistent estimates of the cointegrating
relationships, making it more reliable in long-run equilibrium modeling.
- Better inference and hypothesis testing. Standard errors from OLS may be invalid
under non-stationarity and cointegration. However, FM-OLS adjusts for these
issues, allowing for valid statistical inference and hypothesis testing about long-
run relationships.
- Suitable for non-stationary data. While standard OLS can give spurious results
when applied directly to non-stationary series. On the hand, FM-OLS is designed
specifically for cointegrated (non-stationary) variables, ensuring meaningful and
reliable estimates
In summary, FM-OLS is justified over ordinary OLS because it provides more reliable,
consistent, and efficient estimates of long-run relationships in systems where variables
are non-stationary but cointegrated, especially when issues like endogeneity and serial
correlation are present
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
585
Data Sources
The data used in this analysis were obtained from various sources such as the CBN
statistical bulletin, the World Bank database, as well as the World justice project data
base, covering the period from 2006 to 2023.
Results
From table 2 above, it can be seen that military expenditure (MIL) has the highest mean
while the rule of law (RLAW) has the lowest mean with 2328.123 and -1.00875
respectively. This shows that the Nigeria government has a tendency for higher
investment or focus on military activities than on the rule of law.
Table 2. Descriptive statistics
PEI
RLAW
SERV
MIL
Mean
2.743750
-1.008750
50.53750
2328.125
Median
2.830000
-1.010000
50.50000
2195.000
Maximum
2.920000
-0.840000
59.80000
4470.000
Minimum
2.470000
-1.180000
42.30000
1500.000
Std. Dev.
0.167685
0.117863
4.951077
755.9296
Skewness
-0.574855
-0.123611
0.118607
1.481852
Kurtosis
1.664150
1.519982
2.412598
5.048898
Jarque-Bera
2.070885
1.501048
0.267541
8.654349
Probability
0.355069
0.472119
0.874791
0.013205
Sum
43.90000
-16.14000
808.6000
37250.00
Sum Sq. Dev.
0.421775
0.208375
367.6975
8571444.
Observations
16
16
16
16
Source: Authors compilation.
As well, MIL has the highest standard deviation while RLAW again has the lowest standard
deviation with 755.9296 and 0.117863 respectively. This indicates that the values for
military expenditure vary widely across the data set. It also means that, there is a large
amount of fluctuation or inconsistency in military spending among the observations. On
the other hand, the rule of law with the lowest standard deviation means that, the values
for the rule of law are relatively stable and consistent across the data set, showing less
variability
Table 3. Stationarity test
Order
ADF
Prob
Conclusion
I (1)
-2.5680
0.014
Stationary
I (0)
-6.5557
0.000
Stationary
I (1)
-3.4917
0.000
Stationary
I (1)
-4.037
0.000
Stationary
Source: Authors compilation.
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
586
From table 3, it can be observes that all the variables used in the analysis are stationary
at first difference except RLAW which is stationary at levels. If values are stationary, it
means that they do not change or fluctuate over time. In statistical and analytical
contexts, stationarity has specific implications for empirical analysis which includes;
Predictability and stability; Since values remain constant over time, future values can be
reliably predicted based on past data. This stability simplifies modeling and forecasting
because the underlying data distribution does not change.
Simplified analysis: Many statistical techniques, such as regression analysis and time
series modeling, require stationarity to produce valid results. Non-stationary data can
lead to spurious correlations, so stationarity ensures more accurate and meaningful
analysis.
No trends or cycles; Stationary data lack trends, seasonal effects or cycles, meaning that
the mean and variance are constant. This implies a steady environment without
significant shifts or long-term changes.
Figure 1. Normality test
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
Series: Residuals
Sample 2008 2023
Observations 16
Mean 0.001995
Median 0.009738
Maximum 0.143759
Minimum -0.164307
Std. Dev. 0.076369
Skewness -0.559332
Kurtosis 3.259779
Jarque-Bera 0.879262
Probability 0.644274
From figure 1 which depicts the normality test, the Jarque-Bera value of 0.879262 with
a corresponding probability of 0.644274, indicates that the variables used are normally
distributed. The implications of normal distribution in econometric analysis include;
Validity of statistical inference; Many inferential statistics, such as t-tests and F-tests,
rely on the assumption of normality of the error terms or variables. Normality ensures
that the sampling distribution of estimators is approximately normal, especially in large
samples, enabling valid hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction.
Efficiency and unbiasedness of estimators; Under the assumption of normally distributed
variables, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators are not only unbiased but also
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
587
the Best Linear Unbiased Estimators (BLUE). It also helps in verifying the assumptions
needed for estimator optimality.
Simplification of model diagnostics; Normality facilitates the use of residual analysis, Q-
Q plots, and other diagnostic tools to assess the goodness of fit. It simplifies the detection
of outliers and influential data points.
Applicability of parametric tests: Many parametric tests assume normality; if variables
are normally distributed, these tests are more reliable. This includes tests for coefficients,
joint hypotheses, and model specifications.
In conclusion, if variables are normally distributed, it generally enhances the validity and
reliability of statistical inference in econometric models, simplifies diagnostics, and
supports the use of parametric tests.
Table 4. Cointegration test
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: PEI RLAW SERV MIL
Hypothesized
Trace
0.05
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
0.914236
74.11373
47.85613
0.0000
At most 1 *
0.858092
39.72751
29.79707
0.0026
At most 2
0.485134
12.39145
15.49471
0.1391
At most 3
0.198489
3.097585
3.841466
0.0784
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized
Max-Eigen
0.05
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
Critical Value
Prob.**
None *
0.914236
34.38622
27.58434
0.0057
At most 1 *
0.858092
27.33606
21.13162
0.0059
At most 2
0.485134
9.293869
14.26460
0.2625
At most 3
0.198489
3.097585
3.841466
0.0784
Source: Authors compilation.
Table 4 shows the cointergration result for our analysis. From the results, it can be seen
that there exist a long-run relationship between our dependent variable and the selected
independent variables. The implications of cointegration in econometric analysis are; i)
The presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Cointegration indicates that although
individual variables may be non-stationary (their values fluctuate over time), a linear
combination of these variables is stationary. This suggests that the variables move
together over the long term, maintaining a stable equilibrium relationship despite short-
term deviations. ii) The avoidance of spurious regression issues. Non-stationary variables
can lead to spurious regressions, where relationships appear significant but are actually
meaningless. Cointegration confirms that the observed relationship is genuine and not a
statistical artifact, allowing for valid inferences. iii) The use of Error Correction Models
(ECMs). When variables are cointegrated, the appropriate modeling approach is often an
Error Correction Model. ECMs capture both short-term dynamics and long-term
equilibrium relationships, providing a more comprehensive understanding of how
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
588
variables adjust to deviations. iv) Implications for policy and forecasting. Recognizing
cointegration implies that policy makers can focus on long-term relationships, knowing
that variables tend to move together over time. Forecasts based on cointegrated
variables are more reliable because the long-run equilibrium relationship anchors their
movements. v) Model specification and testing. Cointegration necessitates specific tests
(e.g., Engle-Granger, Johansen tests) to identify the number of cointegrating
relationships. Proper modeling of cointegrated variables ensures that estimates are
consistent and meaningful.
Table 5. The FM-OLS result
Dependent Variable: PEI
Method: Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS)
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
RLAW
1.184708
0.144811
8.181089
0.0000
SERV
0.019699
0.004263
4.621090
0.0006
MIL
0.000108
2.92E-05
3.690276
0.0031
C
2.690307
0.306880
8.766651
0.0000
R-squared
0.792432
Mean dependent var
2.743750
Adjusted R-squared
0.740540
S.D. dependent var
0.167685
S.E. of regression
0.085414
Sum squared resid
0.087547
Long-run variance
0.003574
Source: Authors compilation.
Discussions
From table 5 which represents the FM-OLS estimates, the adjusted R2 value of 0.74 from
our estimates clearly shows that all the independent variables used in the analysis have
been able to explain about 74% of the variation in the dependent variable within the
period under review.
Our first independent variable is the rule of law (RLAW). The estimates indicates that for
each unit increase in rule of law (RLAW), peace-building (PEI) is expected to increase by
approximately 1.18 units, holding other factors constant. In other words, there is a
positive relationship between rule of law (RLAW) and peace-building (PEI) since the p-
value is much less than the typical significance level of 0.05.
With respect to our second independent variable which is government expenditure on
services (SERV), the analysis indicates that for each unit increase in government
expenditure on services (SERV), the peace-building (PEI) is expected to increase by
approximately 0.0197 units. Again this relationship is statistically significant suggesting
a positive and meaningful association between service expenditure and peace outcomes
in the studied context
From our final independent which is military expenditure, the results again indicates that
for each unit increase in military expenditure (MIL), peace-building (PEI) is expected to
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
589
increase by approximately 0.000108 units. The very small magnitude suggests that the
effect is positive but quite small in scale. The relationship is statistically significant
Conclusion
Enhancing the rule of law contributes significantly to peace-building in Nigeria. This
suggests that stronger legal institutions, effective enforcement of laws, and equitable
justice systems promote social stability, reduce conflict, and foster peaceful coexistence.
This is in line with the work of Cox & Cobb (2025).
With respect to government expenditure on services, the findings suggest that higher
government expenditure on services contributes to peace and stability in the country.
This positive association indicates that investments in health, education, social welfare,
and related services may help mitigate conflict drivers such as inequality, poverty, and
social exclusion, thereby fostering a more peaceful environment. Studies such as, Debraj
& Esteban, (2017), have further demonstrated that increased social spending correlates
with reductions in civil unrest and violence
With regards to government military expenditure, the findings suggest that, military
spending contributes to maintaining peace, possibly through deterrence or stronger
defense capabilities. One should note that, the positive correlation does not necessarily
imply that increased military expenditure causes greater peace. It might be that, peaceful
conditions allow for higher military spending. Other factors like economic development,
political stability influence both military expenditure and peace. This is in line with similar
findings by Momoh (2024).
In summary it has been demonstrated that the rule of law has more impact on peace-
building in Nigeria than military spending/intervention. This is because while RLAW
responded with a coefficient of 1.1847, on the other hand MIL responded with a marginal
value of 0.00018.
Recommendations
Nigeria should further strengthen the rule of law by prioritizing judicial reforms, enhance
legal institutions, and promote transparency and accountability this is because a robust
rule of law fosters social trust, reduces corruption, and mitigates conflict, thereby
promoting peace (North, 2009; World Bank, 2011).
While military expenditure is positively associated with peace in this context, it suggests
that a well-funded and professional military can contribute to stability. However, it is
crucial to ensure that military spending is transparent, focused on defense and
peacekeeping, and not diverted to internal repression or conflict-provoking activities.
Governments should aim for transparent and strategic military spending that supports
national security without undermining economic development or civil liberties (SIPRI,
2020).
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
590
Equally, Nigeria should increase expenditure on services by investing in health,
education, social protection, and infrastructure because these can address the root
causes of conflict such as poverty, inequality, and marginalization. This fosters social
cohesion and enhances peace stability (Akinola & Liaga, 2024). Governments should also
ensure that social spending is effectively targeted, equitable, and sustainable to
maximize its peace-promoting effects. (Obomeghie & Bello, 2017)
One may note that, combining efforts to strengthen the rule of law, responsible military
spending, and social investment creates a comprehensive framework for peace-building.
Policy makers should adopt a coordinated approach that aligns security, legal reform,
and social development strategies. Also policy makers in Nigeria should embark on
regular assessment of peace indices and related variables because such adjustment can
guide policy adjustments, hence, the need for holistic and dynamic strategies,
(Obomeghie & Ugbomhe, 2021).
References
Akinola, A. O. (2011). Niger Delta Crisis: The Nexus between Militants’ Insurgency and
Security in West Africa. African Security, 4(1), 65–80.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/48598812
Akinola, A.O., Liaga, E.A. (2024). In Search of Governance, Development, and Peace in
Africa. In: Akinola, A.O., Liaga, E.A. (eds) Development and Regional Stability in Africa.
Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56695-0_1
Altman, D. Rojas-De-Galarreta, F. & Urdinez, F. (2018). An Interactive Model of the
Democratic Peace: Revisiting the Theory with Elastic Measures". Sage Journals.
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3095526.
Attinà, F. (2016). Traditional Security Issues. In the book: China, the European Union
and the international politics of global governance (pp.175-194) Publisher: Palgrave
Editors: Jianwei Wang and Weiqing Son. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137514004_10.
Ayal, B.A., Alem, Y.T. & Amanu, M.A. (2025). Promises of Reform and Governance
Realities: Examining the Legitimacy Crisis in Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia. Public Organiz Rev
25, 907–924. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11115-025-00851-y
Azoro C.J.S. , Onah C.A., & Agulefo Q.O. (2021), Weak Institutions and Poor Governance
in Nigeria: A Socio-Legal Perspective. African Journal of Law, Political Research and
Administration 4(2), 61-70. https://doi.org/10.52589/ajlpra5iufppru.
Bartley, A. (2023).Traditional Approaches and Security: Rethinking Power and
Uncertainty. In: Warren A, ed. Global Security in an Age of Crisis. Edinburgh University
Press; 2023:45-61
Bellamy, A. J., & Williams, P. D. (2020). Understanding peacekeeping.3rd Edition. Willey.
ISBN: 978-0-745-68671-4
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
591
Botes, J. (2003). Conflict transformation: a debate over semantics or a crucial shift in
the theory and practice of peace and conflict studies? International Journal of Peace
Studies, 8(2), 1–27. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41852899
Burton, J. (1990). Conflict: Human needs theory. Macmillan Press. Houndmills
Central Bank of Nigeria CBN) 2024). Statistical Bulletin. www.cbn.ng/stabul
Chafer, T., Cumming, G. D., & van der Velde, R. (2020). France’s interventions in Mali
and the Sahel: A historical institutionalist perspective. Journal of Strategic Studies, 43(4),
482–507. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2020.1733987
Clark, M.E. (1990). Meaningful Social Bonding as a Universal Human Need. In: Burton,
J. (eds) Conflict: Human Needs Theory. The Conflict Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-21000-8_3
Cox, J. M., & Cobb, M. R. (2025). Courts in the Midst of Conflict: Social Conflict and Legal
Institutions. Democracy and Security, 1–26.
https://doi.org/10.1080/17419166.2025.2449633
Debraj, R. & Esteban, J. (2017). Conflict and Development. Annual Review of Economics.
Vol. 9:263-293 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080205
Donnelly, J. (2000). Realism and International Relations. Cambridge University Press.
pp. 6–8. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511612510. ISBN 978-0-521-59229-1
Dunn, K. C. (2002). Review of the Congo from Leopold to Kabila: A People’s History, by
G. Nzongola-Ntalaja. The International Journal of African Historical Studies, 35(2/3),
577–579. https://doi.org/10.2307/3097681
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction:
Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276.
https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Essia, U. (2025). Enhancing Early Warning Systems In Africa: Towards Effective Conflict
Prevention And Sustainable Peace-building. MRS Journal of Arts, Humanities and
Literature ISSN (Online) 2(8) 3049-1444. https://www.academia.edu/143418688
Foley, C. (2020). Rule of Law as a Component of Peace Operations. In: The Palgrave
Encyclopedia of Peace and Conflict Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11795-5_5-1.
Garikai, W.B. & Mahuku, N.D. (2022). Effect of Militarisation on Development and
Democracy in Africa. Journal of Development Economics and Management Research
Studies 09(11):43-54 https://doi.org/10.53422/JDMS.2022.91105.
Geraghty, A.M. (2020). Gacaca, Genocide, Genocide Ideology: The Violent Aftermaths of
Transitional Justice in the New Rwanda. Comparative Studies in Society and History. 62
(3): 588–618. https://doi.org/10.1017/S001041752000018
Gromes, T. (2025). Does Peacekeeping Only Work in Easy Environments? An Analysis of
Conflict Characteristics, Mission Profiles, and Civil War Recurrence. In: Sustaining Peace
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
592
after Civil War. Studien des Leibniz-Instituts für Friedens- und Konfliktforschung.
Springer VS, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-11710-6_6
Henderson, S. (2019). State sanctioned structural violence: Women migrant domestic
workers in the Philistines and Sri Lanker. Violence against Women. 26(12-13). 598-615.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1077801219880969
Hirschfeld, K. ( 2017). Rethinking Structural Violence. Society. 54(2) 156–62.
https://doi-org/10.1007/s12115-017-0116-y
Ikelegbe, O.A. (2014) The Resource Curse: Oil, Communal Agitation and State
Repression in the Niger Delta. Oil, Environmental and Resource Conflicts in Nigeria. 109-
142. Pub. Lit Verlag
Kobayashi, K., Krause, K., & Yuan, X. (2025). (Re)Setting the boundaries of peace-
building in a changing global order. Contemporary Security Policy, 46(2), 226–252.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2025.2466287
Lederach, J. P. (1997). Building peace: Sustainable reconciliation in divided societies.
United States Institute of Peace Press.
Miller, B. (2010). Contrasting Explanations for Peace: Realism vs. Liberalism in Europe
and the Middle East. Contemporary Security Policy, 31(1), 134–164.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13523261003640967.
Momoh, Z. (2024). The implications of increasing military spending on human security:
A global perspective, JANU NET e-journal of International Relation. 15(1)
https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.15.1.7
Nharaunda-Makawa, R. (2022). Challenges To Africa’s Peace And Security: A
Peacebuilding Perspective. IOSR Journal Of Humanities And Social Science (IOSR-JHSS)
27 (11) 38-45. https://doi.org/10.9790/0837-2711013845
North, D. C., et al. (2009). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance.
Cambridge University Press. ISBN:9780511808678.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678
Obomeghie, A. M. & Bello, A. O. (2017). Analysis of the impact of ICT and cooperative
participation on youth economic empowerment in Edo State, Nigeria. International
Journal of Innovative Research and Development, 6 (11) 32-29.
https://doi.org/10.24940/IJIRD/2017/V6/I11/NOV17030
Obomeghie, A.M. & Ugbomhe, O.U. (2021). Globalization and its brunt on Nigeria global
economic competitiveness; The need for holistic and dynamic strategies. International
Journal of Social Science and Economic Review. 3(4), 1-6.
https://doi.org/10.36923/ijsser.v3i1.77
Obomeghie, A.M. (2025). Imperatives of investing in human capital and innovation for a
sustained entrepreneurial growth in Nigeria. World Journal of Advanced Research and
Review, 26 (1). 3025-3033. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2025.26.1.0403
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
593
Okengwu, K. O. (2024) Countering Violent Extremism in Nigeria: an examination of
politics and power in policy and practice. PhD thesis, University of Leeds
Olejeme, C.B., Okoye, A.M., Okoronkwo, S. & Sabastine E. S. (2025) A nation under
siege: The anatomy of kidnapping in Nigeria. World Journal of Advanced Research and
Reviews, 28(02), 642-650. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2025.28.2.3716
Onuoha, F.C. (2025). Anatomy of Boko Haram Terrorism in Nigeria. In: Gunaratna, R.,
Okereke, C.NE. (eds) Palgrave Handbook of Terrorism in Africa. Palgrave Studies in
Global Security. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-89940-
9_26
Otaiku, A.A. (2018). Military Role in the Nigerian Constitution: An Exposé of law and
Security Impact on Development. International Journal of Scientific and Research
Publications. 8(11)798-827. https://doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.11.2018.
Ottoh, F.O. (2018). Ethnic Identity and Conflicts in Africa. In: Oloruntoba, S., Falola, T.
(eds) The Palgrave Handbook of African Politics, Governance and Development. Palgrave
Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95232-8_20
Paris, R. (2004). At war’s end: Building peace after civil conflict. Cambridge University
Press.
Rosenje, M., Onyebuchi, U. J. & Adeniyi, O. (2022). The Effect of Terrorism and
Insurgency on the Security of African Nations: An Appraisal. Pan African Journal of
Governance and Development. 3. 33-61. https://doi.org/10.46404/panjogov.v3i2.3939.
Saba, C.S., & Ngepah, N. (2019). A cross-regional analysis of military expenditure, state
fragility and economic growth in Africa. Qual Quant 53, 2885–2915 (2019).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00905-6.
Sagir, M.B. (2024). Realism: A feasible and reasonable solution to Nigeria’s insecurity
problems. International Journal of Politics and Humanities Research 4 (6). 154-161.
https://cambridgeresearchpub.com/ijlphr/article/view/248
Schweller, R. L. (1997). "New Realist Research on Alliances: Refining, Not Refuting,
Waltz's Balancing Proposition". The American Political Science Review. 91 (4): 927–930.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2952176. S2CID 14358618.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2020). Military expenditure
database. https://www.sipri.org/databases
Terminski, B.(2010). The evolution of the concept of perpetual peace in the history of
political-legal though. Perspectivas internacionales. 6(1). 277-291.
https://docslib.org/doc/3674216
Toye, M. (2023). The Factors and Strategies of Conflict Resolution and Peace Building in
Nigeria Sarcouncil Journal of Multidisciplinary. ISSN(Online): 2945-3445. 1(1) 2023.
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8060875
UNDP (2024). Socio-economic resilience is critical to advancing sustainable peace and
security in East Africa. https://www.undp.org/arab-states/press-releases
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
e-ISSN: 1647-7251
VOL. 17, Nº. 1
May 2026, pp. 568-594
Balancing Peace-Building Strategies in Nigeria: Appraising the Impact
of the Rule of Law vs Military Spending
Muhammed A. Obomeghie
594
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2021). Transnational organized
crime in Africa: A threat assessment.
https://www.unodc.org/toc/en/reports/TOCTAWestAfrica.html
Wagner, M., & Grabarczyk, P. & Hong, H. (2020). Fully modified OLS estimation and
reference for seemingly unrelated contigrating polynomial regression and the
environmental Kuznets curve for Carbon dioxide emission. Journal of Econometrics.
24(1). 216-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.012
Weber, L., Pickering, S. (2011). Structural Violence. In: Globalization and Borders.
Transnational Crime, Crime Control and Security. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230361638_5.
Williams, M. N. (2025) The Practice of International Law in Liberia. Beijing Law Review,
16, 273-289. https://doi.org/10.4236/blr.2025.161013.
World Bank. (2011). World development report 2011: Conflict, security, and
development https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/966731468161352341/pdf
World Health Organization (WHO). (2025). Strengthening Africa’s health security:
enhancing event detection, building resilient systems and fostering strategic
partnerships. https://www.afro.who.int/sites/default/files/2025-08/AFR-RC75
World Justice Project. (2024). Rule of law index. Retrieved from
https://worldjusticeproject.org
Zailani1, S.H., Magaji, S. & Jafaru, Y. (2025) Examining the Methods in Achieving
Effective Conflict Resolution and Peace-building in North East Nigeria. GAS Journal of Arts
Humanities and Social Sciences (GASJAHSS) 3(5). 2025
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15869538